Archive | August 12, 2016

Weekend weather brief – August 13/14, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 13 AUG

NWPAC outlook, 13 AUG

NORTH

More very intense heat is on the slate for portions of interior China this weekend, as heat indices approach extremely dangerous levels near 48C (118F). Moisture will be restricted to the northern and eastern locales of mainland Asia as a cold front drapes down over northern China and into Korea. The remainder of the region will see good weather, with plenty of warm sunshine.

City

Sat High

C       F

Sun High

C       F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Ulaanbaatar

23

73 22 72 Partly cloudy

Partly cloudy

Vladivostok

25

77 27 81 Sctd. t-storms

Sctd. t-storms

Beijing

35

95 29 84 Ptly cloudy & HOT

Mostly cloudy

Seoul

34

93 32 90 Partly cloudy

Sctd. t-storms

Tokyo

30

86 29 84 Partly cloudy

Partly cloudy

Xi’an

41

106 42 108 Fair & HOT

Fair & HOT

Shanghai

32

90 32 90 Sctd. t-storms

Mostly fair

 

CENTRAL

It will be a rather rainy weekend for much of the central region, especially areas to the south where abundant tropical moisture and energy will play a part. Some showers could be heavy, with the threat of flooding rainfall and possible landslides in the higher elevations.

City

Sat High

C       F

Sun High

C       F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Kunming

26

79 25 77 Sctd. t-storms

Sctd. t-storms

Hong Kong

31

88 31 88 Thunderstorms

Sctd. t-storms

Taipei

32

90 34 93 Sctd. t-storms

Partly cloudy

Naha

31

88 31 88 Partly cloudy

Mostly fair

Hanoi

31

88 28 82 Thunderstorms

Sctd. t-storms

 

SOUTH 

A developing monsoonal rainfall event over the Philippines continues to take center stage this weekend. The rainfall is expected to ramp up over the weekend, as the developing situation coalesces into the scenario that most have forecasted. Rain could last well into next week, especially over western provinces of the island of Luzon, where storm totals could exceed 500mm in some locations by the end of the week. The remainder of the region ill see a fairly typical weather pattern as deep, tropical moisture combines with the warm afternoon sunshine to spawn a few scattered showers and thunderstorms.

City

Sat High

C       F

Sun High

C       F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Siem Reap

32

90 32 90 Sctd. t-storms

Thunderstorms

Ho Chi Minh

31

88 32 90 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Manila

29

84 29 84 Heavy rain

Heavy rain

Davao City

33

91 32 90 Partly cloudy

Sctd. t-storms

Brunei

33

91 32 90 Sctd. t-storms

Sctd. t-storms

Singapore

32

90 32 90 Sctd. t-storms

Sctd. t-storms

 

TROPICS

08W full, 13 AUG

08W full, 13 AUG

93W sat, 13 AUG

93W sat, 13 AUG

The tropics are on fire this weekend, as a developing storm system gets its act together, another moves into cooler water, and general swirly blobbage continues to dominate the region. Tropical Storm 08W CONSON is not looking too good today. Wind shear has taken a definite toll on this system, and while some strengthening is expected in the coming days, I believe CONSON has seen its best days already. In any event, CONSON will continue to move to the north, into higher wind shear and cooler S.S.T.’s (Sea-Surface Temperatures) as it makes a beeline in the general direction of northeastern Hokkaido in Japan. 93W INVEST is expected to become the 9th system designated as a tropical cyclone this season over the weekend. This system is expected to tap into the monsoon, similarly to what OMAIS did, and be the harbinger of a major rainfall event over the Philippines next week. For now, the system is slow to develop, dealing with the general instability of the conditions in the region. With no other identified trouble spots, the remainder of the tropics will see a weekend full of warm sunshine and a few scattered showers and thunderstorms.

City

Sat High

C       F

Sun High

C       F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Guam

31

88 29 84 Sctd. t-storms

Thunderstorms

Yap

31

88 30 86 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Palau

30

86 30 86 Sctd. t-storms

Thunderstorms

Chuuk

30

86 30 86 Partly cloudy

Sctd. t-storms

Pohnpei

32

90 27 81 Sctd. t-storms

Sctd. t-storms

Majuro

28

82 29 84 Sctd. t-storms

Partly cloudy

Wake

28

82 27 81 Periods of rain

Thunderstorms

 

Have a wonderful weekend!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, NRL, JMA, JTWC

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USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFCIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

 

All rights reserved. © 2016 Westernpacificweather.com

TROPICS ARE A CONFUSING MESS, PHILIPPINE FLOOD THREAT AND CONSON

Heavy rains continue to fall across central and northern Luzon as a persistent westerly flow of moisture over the  coming week will producing a severe flood threat for Central and Northern Luzon.

flood threat

This is all a direct result the enhanced south west monsoon or “habagat” continuing to dominate the atmospheric setup across south east Asia.   Over the coming week low lying and poor drainage  location will be most at risk as showers kick up daily. The heaviest will be in the afternoon hours as day time heating helps contribute to the formation of convective thunderstorms.

72hr

Another question many may have and a more complicated one, “what is enhancing the south west monsoon?”. Well that is a series of low pressure areas along the monsoonal trough strecthing from the Philippines to near Guam. Along this over the coming week low pressure areas are expected to develop one after another all the while possibly turning on the Fujiwara effect and staying south of Japan due to a high pressure over that area keeping the storms south.

Check latest satellite images to view these storms here. 

Are you confused yet?

Well in fact it even has some of us meteorologist stumped and puzzled. Its a very unique setup that rarely happens, not to say any a “super typhoon” would form out of it. Just that what ever does occur big or small is going to and already is extremely hard to predict.  Right now I would suggest anyone from Hong Kong to Tokyo should be ready for a possible typhoon next week. This is typhoon season after all so that should come at no surprise.

Take a look at the GFS ensemble below to just get a rough idea at the extra challenge of whats going on.

model

What is for certain though is that this will enhance the monsoon for the Philippines.

Meanwhile the high pressure over Japan and Korea keeping the moisture south is also making for exceptionally warm temperatures.

MEANWHILE!

Tropical Storm Conson is still out there, this storm is tracking north and is truly not much of a worry for anyone outside of shipping lanes.

Daily weather brief – Friday, August 12, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 12 AUG

NWPAC outlook, 12 AUG

NORTH

The clash of seasons is already taking place over the north region, as dangerous heat ravages parts of interior China, and cool, autumnal air from the north settles over Mongolia. Warm air advection along a slow-moving frontal boundary will heat things up considerably in central China, as heat indices reach severe limits near 46C (115F). Aside from a few showers along the front in northeastern China, and some scattered thunderstorms in the east, most locations will see a ton of sunshine.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

21

7 70 45

Mostly fair

Vladivostok

26

23 79 73

Partly cloudy

Beijing

33

24 91 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Seoul

34

24 93 75

Mostly fair

Tokyo

30

23 86 73

Partly cloudy

Xi’an

40

28 104 82

Mostly fair & VERY HOT

Shanghai

32

27 90 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

 

CENTRAL

Plentiful moisture and energy remain over the central region, where scattered showers and thunderstorms are in store for most locations. Remnant energy from what was 92W INVEST will slowly roll through southern China, raising the possibility of flooding rain in these areas. Landslides are also a potential hazard in the higher elevations as the ground is saturated and soft, allowing for slides to occur more easily.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

25

16 77 61

Thunderstorms likely

Hong Kong

31

27 88 81

Thunderstorms likely

Taipei

32

27 90 81

Thunderstorms likely

Naha

31

27 88 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Hanoi

32

27 90 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

SOUTH

The big story in the south region continues to be the developing monsoonal rainfall event. Nature being what it is, the onset of the heavy rainfall in the Philippines has been delayed just a bit, with models generating solutions that show a more prolonged rainfall period, which leads to the possibility of a near-historic rain event across western provinces of the island of Luzon next week. To say the atmospheric situation is volatile would be an understatement, with major shifts taking place constantly. Thus, the forecast models have simply not been able to produce any consensus other than the general development of this event. We will keep you posted. Around the rest of the south region, plentiful moisture and warm sunshine will help showers and thunderstorms blossom in the afternoon heat.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

33

26 91 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

32

26 90 79

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

29

26 84 79

Periods of heavy rain

Davao City

33

26 91 79

Partly cloudy

Brunei

32

24 90 75

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Singapore

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS

Along with the active M.J.O. (Madden-Julian Oscillation) phase comes increased moisture and vorticity, leading to prolific cyclogenesis capability, which is clearly the developing scenario in the western Pacific.

NCEP FuzzyForm 09 AUG

NCEP FuzzyForm 09 AUG

Currently, Tropical Storm 08W CONSON continues to get sheared and remain relatively disorganized as it tracks to the north. This system is forecast to stay out over the open ocean.

08W full, 12 AUG

08W full, 12 AUG

The J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) has issued a T.C.F.A. (Tropical Cyclone formation Alert) on 93W INVEST, located to the west of the Mariana Islands, which is forecast to become a cyclone within the next 24 hours. This system is expected to remain quasi-stationary with a slight drift to the east-northeast over the weekend.

93W full, 12 AUG

93W full, 12 AUG

The remainder of the region will see a good chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with eastern Micronesia being the notable exception, under partly cloudy skies.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms likely

Yap

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Palau

30

27 86 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Chuuk

30

27 86 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

30

22 86 72

Partly cloudy

Majuro

28

27 82 81

Partly cloudy

Wake

28

26 82 79

Scattered showers likely

 

Have a fabulous Friday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

==================================================================

Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFCIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

 

All rights reserved. © 2016 Westernpacificweather.com