Daily weather brief – Friday, August 12, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 12 AUG

NORTH

The clash of seasons is already taking place over the north region, as dangerous heat ravages parts of interior China, and cool, autumnal air from the north settles over Mongolia. Warm air advection along a slow-moving frontal boundary will heat things up considerably in central China, as heat indices reach severe limits near 46C (115F). Aside from a few showers along the front in northeastern China, and some scattered thunderstorms in the east, most locations will see a ton of sunshine.

CENTRAL

Plentiful moisture and energy remain over the central region, where scattered showers and thunderstorms are in store for most locations. Remnant energy from what was 92W INVEST will slowly roll through southern China, raising the possibility of flooding rain in these areas. Landslides are also a potential hazard in the higher elevations as the ground is saturated and soft, allowing for slides to occur more easily.

SOUTH

The big story in the south region continues to be the developing monsoonal rainfall event. Nature being what it is, the onset of the heavy rainfall in the Philippines has been delayed just a bit, with models generating solutions that show a more prolonged rainfall period, which leads to the possibility of a near-historic rain event across western provinces of the island of Luzon next week. To say the atmospheric situation is volatile would be an understatement, with major shifts taking place constantly. Thus, the forecast models have simply not been able to produce any consensus other than the general development of this event. We will keep you posted. Around the rest of the south region, plentiful moisture and warm sunshine will help showers and thunderstorms blossom in the afternoon heat.

TROPICS

Along with the active M.J.O. (Madden-Julian Oscillation) phase comes increased moisture and vorticity, leading to prolific cyclogenesis capability, which is clearly the developing scenario in the western Pacific.

NCEP FuzzyForm 09 AUG

Currently, Tropical Storm 08W CONSON continues to get sheared and remain relatively disorganized as it tracks to the north. This system is forecast to stay out over the open ocean.

08W full, 12 AUG

The J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) has issued a T.C.F.A. (Tropical Cyclone formation Alert) on 93W INVEST, located to the west of the Mariana Islands, which is forecast to become a cyclone within the next 24 hours. This system is expected to remain quasi-stationary with a slight drift to the east-northeast over the weekend.

93W full, 12 AUG

The remainder of the region will see a good chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with eastern Micronesia being the notable exception, under partly cloudy skies.

Have a fabulous Friday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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