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TROPICS ARE A CONFUSING MESS, PHILIPPINE FLOOD THREAT AND CONSON

Heavy rains continue to fall across central and northern Luzon as a persistent westerly flow of moisture over the  coming week will producing a severe flood threat for Central and Northern Luzon.

flood threat

This is all a direct result the enhanced south west monsoon or “habagat” continuing to dominate the atmospheric setup across south east Asia.   Over the coming week low lying and poor drainage  location will be most at risk as showers kick up daily. The heaviest will be in the afternoon hours as day time heating helps contribute to the formation of convective thunderstorms.

72hr

Another question many may have and a more complicated one, “what is enhancing the south west monsoon?”. Well that is a series of low pressure areas along the monsoonal trough strecthing from the Philippines to near Guam. Along this over the coming week low pressure areas are expected to develop one after another all the while possibly turning on the Fujiwara effect and staying south of Japan due to a high pressure over that area keeping the storms south.

Check latest satellite images to view these storms here. 

Are you confused yet?

Well in fact it even has some of us meteorologist stumped and puzzled. Its a very unique setup that rarely happens, not to say any a “super typhoon” would form out of it. Just that what ever does occur big or small is going to and already is extremely hard to predict.  Right now I would suggest anyone from Hong Kong to Tokyo should be ready for a possible typhoon next week. This is typhoon season after all so that should come at no surprise.

Take a look at the GFS ensemble below to just get a rough idea at the extra challenge of whats going on.

model

What is for certain though is that this will enhance the monsoon for the Philippines.

Meanwhile the high pressure over Japan and Korea keeping the moisture south is also making for exceptionally warm temperatures.

MEANWHILE!

Tropical Storm Conson is still out there, this storm is tracking north and is truly not much of a worry for anyone outside of shipping lanes.

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