Weekend weather brief – August 13/14, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 13 AUG

NORTH

More very intense heat is on the slate for portions of interior China this weekend, as heat indices approach extremely dangerous levels near 48C (118F). Moisture will be restricted to the northern and eastern locales of mainland Asia as a cold front drapes down over northern China and into Korea. The remainder of the region will see good weather, with plenty of warm sunshine.

CENTRAL

It will be a rather rainy weekend for much of the central region, especially areas to the south where abundant tropical moisture and energy will play a part. Some showers could be heavy, with the threat of flooding rainfall and possible landslides in the higher elevations.

SOUTH 

A developing monsoonal rainfall event over the Philippines continues to take center stage this weekend. The rainfall is expected to ramp up over the weekend, as the developing situation coalesces into the scenario that most have forecasted. Rain could last well into next week, especially over western provinces of the island of Luzon, where storm totals could exceed 500mm in some locations by the end of the week. The remainder of the region ill see a fairly typical weather pattern as deep, tropical moisture combines with the warm afternoon sunshine to spawn a few scattered showers and thunderstorms.

TROPICS

08W full, 13 AUG

93W sat, 13 AUG

The tropics are on fire this weekend, as a developing storm system gets its act together, another moves into cooler water, and general swirly blobbage continues to dominate the region. Tropical Storm 08W CONSON is not looking too good today. Wind shear has taken a definite toll on this system, and while some strengthening is expected in the coming days, I believe CONSON has seen its best days already. In any event, CONSON will continue to move to the north, into higher wind shear and cooler S.S.T.’s (Sea-Surface Temperatures) as it makes a beeline in the general direction of northeastern Hokkaido in Japan. 93W INVEST is expected to become the 9^th system designated as a tropical cyclone this season over the weekend. This system is expected to tap into the monsoon, similarly to what OMAIS did, and be the harbinger of a major rainfall event over the Philippines next week. For now, the system is slow to develop, dealing with the general instability of the conditions in the region. With no other identified trouble spots, the remainder of the tropics will see a weekend full of warm sunshine and a few scattered showers and thunderstorms.

Have a wonderful weekend!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, NRL, JMA, JTWC

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