Archive | August 14, 2016

Daily weather brief – Monday, August 15, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 15 AUG

NWPAC outlook, 15 AUG

NORTH

Cooler air returns to parts of the north region as autumn-like temperatures settle in to Mongolia and northern China. The frontal system responsible for the cooler air is draped over northern China through Korea, and into Japan, where a few showers and thunderstorms could pop up this afternoon. Warm air advection ahead of the front is helping bring some very hot temperatures and dangerous heat indices to parts of interior central China. Japan’s attention is turned to Tropical Storm 09W CHANTHU, which is forecast to make a very close pass to the central Japanese coastline later this week.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

23

12 73 54

Mostly fair

Vladivostok

28

21 82 70

Partly cloudy

Beijing

28

19 82 66

Scattered showers possible

Seoul

32

22 90 72

Mostly cloudy

Tokyo

29

26 84 79

Scattered showers possible

Xi’an

41

27 106 81

Mostly fair & VERY HOT

Shanghai

33

27 91 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

 

CENTRAL

Showers and thunderstorms will affect mostly mainland areas of the central region today, as tropical moisture and energy linger to the southwest over the South China Sea. Activity will be restricted to the southern third of the region, where flash flooding and landslides are possible over the higher terrain of southeastern China.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

27

16 81 66

Thunderstorms likely

Hong Kong

30

26 86 79

Thunderstorms likely

Taipei

34

27 93 81

Mostly fair

Naha

31

27 88 81

Mostly fair

Hanoi

30

26 86 79

Thunderstorms likely

 

SOUTH

Many parts of western Luzon have been picking up rainfall over the weekend. Whereas the event has not been as heavy as anticipated, some areas have seen flooding, especially those areas prone during rain events. More rain is on the way, as the monsoonal situation continues to sort itself out. A new tropical disturbance, 95W INVEST, is located to the northwest of the Philippines, and is expected to help kick up the rainfall as we go into the new work week. The biggest news is the tornado that rolled through parts of downtown Manila yesterday afternoon. Videos of the event swamped the internet shortly after the event, and although no official news has been released, it would appear, at least by general observation of video material, that the rarity did occur. The event is a perfect example of just how unstable the atmosphere is in this region right now, and will remain so for the next week or so. Across the remainder of the region, skies will fill with clouds as the afternoon heating cranks up, with showers and thunderstorms likely for everyone.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

32

26 90 79

Thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

32

26 90 79

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

29

26 84 79

Periods of heavy rain

Davao City

32

26 90 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Brunei

33

25 91 77

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Singapore

32

27 90 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

 

TROPICS

Tropical Storm 08W CONSON is in the process of transitioning into an extra-tropical storm, and frankly, bears a closer resemblance to one already. J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) issued their last advisory on this system last night, and JMA will just follow it through their latest advisory before it leaves the books.

08W full, 15 AUG

08W full, 15 AUG

Tropical Storm 09W CHANTHU looks a bit more impressive as forecast tracks take it just to the east of the central Japanese coastline Wednesday through Friday. The system is expected to strengthen slightly before moving into cooler water and hostile atmospheric conditions on Thursday.

09W full, 15 AUG

09W full, 15 AUG

Two new areas of disturbed weather were designated last night, as 95W INVEST, situated in the northern South China Sea, and 96W INVEST, east of the Mariana Islands, get into the spotlight. 95W is expected to re-invigorate the monsoonal event over the Philippines, while 96W looks to go the way of the previously organized storm systems.

INVEST full, 15 AUG

INVEST full, 15 AUG

The remainder of the region will see a good chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms as the afternoon sun lifts up the moisture.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

29

26 84 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Yap

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Palau

30

27 86 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Chuuk

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Pohnpei

30

23 86 73

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Majuro

28

27 82 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Wake

28

26 82 79

Thunderstorms likely

Have a marvelous Monday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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JAPAN CONTENDS WITH DUAL TROPICAL STORMS

Nemuro outlook

Japan is contending with two separate tropical systems this Monday at the start of Obon week kicks off, a series of holidays where many Japanese travel across the country and abroad.  

 

NW PACIFIC SATELLITE

To the north we have Conson, now a tropical storm with winds gusting up to 108kph. The storm is located just towards the east of Nemuro where winds up to 78kph were reported Monday morning. This town is used to strong winds typically from winter storms that rake the area. So little damage is expected from it. Yet for those who are traveling across Hokkaido for the holiday season they could be seeing some delays. Conson is expected to continue to track north becoming a extra-tropical low by Monday evening.

 

Following on the heals of Conson is Chanthu, a Severe Tropical Storm now tracking past the Ogasawara islands of Japan. This still is following in similar atmospheric dynamics as Conson and will take a track much the same.

 

One difference will be though the mid-latitude trough that pulled Conson north will not be as influential making it so Chanthu will track further west in to the Tokyo area by early Wednesday morning.

 

Chanthu JTWC TRACK

As of Monday it looks like the storm should skim the Kanto plain just to the east. If this happens then the weather in Tokyo and Kanagawa should NOT be that rough as the left side of the storm would be passing over head. The right side of typhoons especially further north is where the worst weather is as it takes in consideration the forward movement of the storm. Plus in this case the moisture coming in off the ocean as well.

 

JMA does not expect Chanthu to become a full fledged Typhoon as wind shear will work on the storm this far north. But it still is strong enough to produce damage especially downing trees or signs. Plus there will be a flood threat by Wednesday for central and northern areas of Honshu,.

 

Flights starting Tuesday night in to Wednesday could be delayed at Tokyo’s airports depending on how close the storm gets. Otherwise in the city do not expect to many delays on the trains. But coastal lines in Kanagawa and Chiba might see some loss in services.

DAMAGING TORNADO RIPS THROUGH OLD MANILA

A rare and damaging Tornado blew through Manila Sunday afternoon causing damage to old Manila near Manila bay.  The tornado was on the ground for only a few moments but long enough to rip up metal roofing and knock over trees and signs. Several injuries were reported due to the storm. There are some media outlets reporting the tornado killed 5 people but that looks like it was due to the floods which have also been dominating the area and not this specific wind event according to the NDRRMC. 

 

Amateur video was posted all over facebook of the event.

https://www.facebook.com/plugins/video.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2Fyu.csunshine%2Fvideos%2F10153894936207945%2F&show_text=0&width=560

https://www.facebook.com/plugins/video.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2F100008956909094%2Fvideos%2F1561392074169341%2F&show_text=0&width=400

The storm developed within the south west monsoon or locally known as Habagat which has been dominating the Manila area for the past week.  Flooding was reported on Friday and Saturday in the NCR (Greater Metro Area) due to the heavy rains.

 

With the monsoon still going strong and Chanthu to the north east more rains can be expected across western Luzon over the coming days. Plus the continued threat of flooding.

damage