Daily weather brief – Monday, August 15, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 15 AUG

NORTH

Cooler air returns to parts of the north region as autumn-like temperatures settle in to Mongolia and northern China. The frontal system responsible for the cooler air is draped over northern China through Korea, and into Japan, where a few showers and thunderstorms could pop up this afternoon. Warm air advection ahead of the front is helping bring some very hot temperatures and dangerous heat indices to parts of interior central China. Japan’s attention is turned to Tropical Storm 09W CHANTHU, which is forecast to make a very close pass to the central Japanese coastline later this week.

CENTRAL

Showers and thunderstorms will affect mostly mainland areas of the central region today, as tropical moisture and energy linger to the southwest over the South China Sea. Activity will be restricted to the southern third of the region, where flash flooding and landslides are possible over the higher terrain of southeastern China.

SOUTH

Many parts of western Luzon have been picking up rainfall over the weekend. Whereas the event has not been as heavy as anticipated, some areas have seen flooding, especially those areas prone during rain events. More rain is on the way, as the monsoonal situation continues to sort itself out. A new tropical disturbance, 95W INVEST, is located to the northwest of the Philippines, and is expected to help kick up the rainfall as we go into the new work week. The biggest news is the tornado that rolled through parts of downtown Manila yesterday afternoon. Videos of the event swamped the internet shortly after the event, and although no official news has been released, it would appear, at least by general observation of video material, that the rarity did occur. The event is a perfect example of just how unstable the atmosphere is in this region right now, and will remain so for the next week or so. Across the remainder of the region, skies will fill with clouds as the afternoon heating cranks up, with showers and thunderstorms likely for everyone.

TROPICS

Tropical Storm 08W CONSON is in the process of transitioning into an extra-tropical storm, and frankly, bears a closer resemblance to one already. J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) issued their last advisory on this system last night, and JMA will just follow it through their latest advisory before it leaves the books.

08W full, 15 AUG

Tropical Storm 09W CHANTHU looks a bit more impressive as forecast tracks take it just to the east of the central Japanese coastline Wednesday through Friday. The system is expected to strengthen slightly before moving into cooler water and hostile atmospheric conditions on Thursday.

09W full, 15 AUG

Two new areas of disturbed weather were designated last night, as 95W INVEST, situated in the northern South China Sea, and 96W INVEST, east of the Mariana Islands, get into the spotlight. 95W is expected to re-invigorate the monsoonal event over the Philippines, while 96W looks to go the way of the previously organized storm systems.

INVEST full, 15 AUG

The remainder of the region will see a good chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms as the afternoon sun lifts up the moisture.

Have a marvelous Monday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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