Daily weather brief – Wednesday, August 17, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 17 AUG

NWPAC outlook, 17 AUG

NORTH

Tropical Storm 09W CHANTHU continues to slide parallel to the coast of Honshu as it tracks towards a certain landfall in Hokkaido. The system could clip the northeastern coast of Honshu as it passes through, as it did further to the south in Chiba prefecture. Tropical storm conditions can be expected throughout northern Japan through the day with strong, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall. For more details on the effects of CHANTHU is Japan, please see the report by Meteorologist Robert Speta. Intense heat remains locked in over interior portions of Central China, where heat indices will once again hit hazardous levels near 46C (115F). Cooler temperatures have settled in across the northern tier of the region, as autumn peeks in for a preview.

City High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Ulaanbaatar

23

11 73 52

Partly cloudy

Vladivostok

27

19 81 66

Mostly fair

Beijing

29

22 84 72

Mostly cloudy

Seoul

34

25 93 77

Mostly fair

Tokyo

32

26 90 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Xi’an

41

28 106 82

Partly cloudy & VERY HOT

Shanghai

32

28 90 82

Partly cloudy

 

CENTRAL

Tropical moisture is well in place across the southern portion of the central region. A weak disturbance designated 95W INVEST is sliding along the coast of southeastern China, bringing quite a bit of rain to the region. This system is expected to drift westward, parallel to the southern Chinese coast, and move into northern Vietnam in the coming days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be on the menu for most locations across the region, with Taiwan seeing a bit more steady rain. Flooding and landslides are a risk in the higher elevations of southern China, as always.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

27

16 81 61

Partly cloudy

Hong Kong

30

27 86 81

Thunderstorms likely

Taipei

33

27 91 81

Periods of rain

Naha

31

27 88 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Hanoi

34

27 93 81

Partly cloudy

 

SOUTH

There’s been a bit of a break in cyclogenesis across the south region, with only 95W INVEST to watch for as it drifts westward and stays very weak. The strong southwesterly flow continues across the Philippines, but with a lack of a focusing mechanism for the moisture, showers and thunderstorms will be a bit more scattered in variety in the near-term, with any bouts of heavy rain restricted mostly to the northern half of western Luzon. Some areas of the country have picked up as much as 400mm of rainfall since last week, and more will be on the way. But for now, at least, there is a pause of sorts for the archipelago. The remainder of the region will see a good chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms as the deep moisture gets a lift from the warm afternoon sun.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

33

27 91 81

Thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

33

26 91 79

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms likely

Davao City

33

26 91 79

Partly cloudy

Brunei

34

26 93 79

Partly cloudy

Singapore

32

27 90 81

Thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS

TAAG, 17 AUG

TAAG, 17 AUG

Right now there are only three designated systems to keep an eye on the in the tropical west Pacific:

09W full, 17 AUG

09W full, 17 AUG

Tropical Storm 09W CHANTHU continues to move parallel to the Japanese coast of Honshu as it tracks northward and begins extra-tropical transition. It has shown one last gasp of fight left in it, as it strengthened slightly overnight. The system is expected to continue its E.T. transition, and make landfall on the island of Hokkaido, where higher terrain and drier air will spell its timely demise.

INVEST full, 17 AUG

INVEST full, 17 AUG

Elsewhere, there is a trio of weak disturbances that the agencies are watching. One is 95W INVEST, located in the northern South China Sea. The system is expected to track westward into the Gulf of Tonkin and into northern Vietnam in the coming days. 96W INVEST is far to the east, and is a strange system, looking more like a sub-tropical cyclone. The system is more a reflection of the strong upper-level low pressure area, which may be working its way down to the surface, as has happened in the past. In any case, this system is expected to keep tracking northerly and out of the picture. The final disturbance is 98W INVEST, designated overnight, southwest of 96W. Models do show possible development off this area, so we will keep an eye on it for you.

Elsewhere across the tropics, it will be another typical day, with lots of warm moist air and a few scattered showers and thunderstorms.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms likely

Yap

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms likely

Palau

29

27 84 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Chuuk

31

27 88 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Pohnpei

29

22 84 72

Mostly cloudy

Majuro

29

28 84 82

Partly cloudy

Wake

29

27 84 81

Mostly cloudy

 

Have a wonderful Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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