Daily weather brief – Thursday, August 18, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 18 AUG

NWPAC outlook, 18 AUG

NORTH

As 09W CHANTHU slides out of the picture to the north, we find intense heat locked in over portions of interior central China, as heat indices will reach hazardous levels near 46C (115F). The heat is due in part to warm air advection ahead of a lingering frontal boundary that has brought in very comfortable temperatures across Mongolia and portions of northern China. Japan and Korea could see a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms, while the remainder of the region will see a warm, partly cloudy day.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

22

9 72 48

Mostly fair

Vladivostok

26

21 79 70

Partly cloudy

Beijing

24

23 75 73

Periods of rain

Seoul

33

26 91 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Tokyo

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Xi’an

41

30 106 86

Partly cloudy & VERY HOT

Shanghai

34

28 93 82

Partly cloudy

 

CENTRAL

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will pop up across the central region, especially in southern China where newly-designated Tropical Depression 11W is spinning about as it tracks slowly westward over the South China Sea towards Hainan Island and the Gulf of Tonkin. Showers will be especially heavy over the higher terrain of southern China, where flooding and landslides are a definite risk.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

28

16 82 61

Partly cloudy

Hong Kong

30

27 86 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Taipei

33

27 91 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Naha

32

28 90 82

Mostly fair

Hanoi

34

27 93 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

SOUTH

With a bit of a pause in the energy traversing the Philippines, most of the country will get a chance to dry out just a bit today. All eyes are on the progress of newly-designated Tropical Depression 11W in the northern South China Sea, which is expected to maintain strength as it tracks over Hainan Island and into northern Vietnam later this week. Showers and thunderstorms will be plentiful across the region today, especially over portions of Indochina, where moisture and energy from TD11W will dominate.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

33

27 91 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

31

26 88 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Davao City

34

26 93 79

Partly cloudy

Brunei

34

26 93 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Singapore

32

26 90 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS

The changes taking place in the tropics have happened so fast I could hardly keep up. Here’s a glance at the tropical situation:

TAAG, 18 AUG

TAAG, 18 AUG

09W CHANTHU is moving out of the picture, with the last bulletins issued on the system last night.

09W FINAL full, 18 AUG

09W FINAL full, 18 AUG

Two newly-designated systems are out there to watch, in the forms of Tropical Depressions 10W and 11W. 10W is located west of the Mariana Islands, and is expected to develop while moving eastward, and then making a wide sweeping counter-clockwise arc up and along a similar path that the last two systems took near Japan.

10W full, 18 AUG

10W full, 18 AUG

TD11W, formerly known as 95W INVEST, was just designated this morning as it slowly gains strength over the warm waters of the South China Sea. This system is expected to maintain strength as it tracks slowly westward into the Gulf of Tonkin and northern Vietnam later this week.

11W full, 18 AUG

11W full, 18 AUG

Two other areas of interest are out there, as 96W INVEST spins up northeast of the Mariana Islands. The J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) has issued a T.C.F.A. (Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert) for this system as it is expected to slowly gain strength and follow a similar track towards Japan as the past several systems have.

INVEST full, 18 AUG

INVEST full, 18 AUG

The remainder of the region will see a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms as the deep moisture gets a good lift from the intense sunshine over the region.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

28

26 82 79

Thunderstorms likely

Yap

30

26 86 79

Thunderstorms likely

Palau

29

27 84 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Chuuk

31

27 88 81

Partly cloudy

Pohnpei

29

21 84 70

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Majuro

29

27 84 81

Partly cloudy

Wake

30

27 86 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

 

Have a thrilling Thursday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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