Daily weather brief – Tuesday, August 23, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 23 AUG

NORTH

Tropical Storm 10W MINDULLE continues to roll through portions of northern Japan today as it weakens and begins extra-tropical transition. More strong showers and gusty winds are in store for Hokkaido and northern Honshu through the rest of the day, while a few showers and thunderstorms linger over the eastern coast of the nation. A shot of cooler air has moved into Mongolia and northern China, bringing temperatures down to more comfortable levels. Warm air ahead of the frontal system will make for a cozy day across eastern Russia, and will keep the intense heat in place across interior central China, where heat indices will once again be in the dangerous to hazardous range near 45C (113F).

CENTRAL

Tropical systems lingering well offshore will rob inland locations in the central region of significant moisture, limiting afternoon shower development. Most locations will see a fine day with just a few scattered clouds. The exception will be over southern China and northern Vietnam, where tropical moisture and energy will combine to bring about a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. For future reference, all eyes are on Tropical Storm 12W LIONROCK as it moves to the southwest. Model solutions are still in disagreement on the expected track of this system, with some taking it towards Okinawa, and others calling for a loop back to the north. Needless to say, surprises will be in order with this system.

SOUTH

The south region will be warm and soggy today, and plentiful tropical moisture and scattered pockets of energy bring a good chance for afternoon rainfall. An upper-level low pressure area just west of the Philippines could help fire off some very strong thunderstorms this afternoon over the archipelago and westward over southeastern Indochina.

TROPICS

We currently have 3 designated systems and a wanna-be out there to watch, with one system seemingly on crack or something.

TAAG, 23 AUG

Tropical Storm 10W MINDULLE is on its last legs as it moves over the mountainous terrain of Hokkaido today. MINDULLE lashed out at portions of coastal Honshu as it rolled through yesterday, but will slowly degenerate and transition into an extra-tropical system in a couple of days and race off to the northeast.

10W full, 23 AUG

Tropical Storm 12w LIONROCK is clearly on drugs. Let’s go ahead and chime in with everyone else watching this storm and mention that the name HAS to be the COOLEST name for a storm EVER. Let’s hope it stays cool and doesn’t hurt anyone so we can keep using the name. Right now, forecast models are all over the place with this one, with solutions ranging from a southwesterly track into the Ryukyu Islands, to a counter-clockwise loop back around towards the north-northeast. Until things become a bit more stable out there, LIONROCK’s future will remain, at best, enigmatic.

12W full, 23 AUG

We also have 90W INVEST to watch, just south of Guam. It’s looking better on data observations, and could form into a formidable system before it’s all said and done.

90W, 23 AUG

We also have an upper-level low pressure area and associated surface trough located just to the west of the Philippines. Development is not expected as this area moves westward towards southern Indochina.

The remainder of the region, aside from the far eastern locales, will see a very good chance for showers and thunderstorms as plentiful moisture and energy roll about the region.

Have a terrific Tuesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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