Daily weather brief – Wednesday, August 24, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 24 AUG

NORTH

Signs of the coming changes in seasons are evident across the north region, as intense heat once again settles over interior portions of central China, and cool, autumn-like temperatures settle over parts of Mongolia and northern China. Heat indices could approach 44C (111F) in Xi’an and surrounding locales this afternoon. Lingering moisture from 10W will bring a few showers to Japan this afternoon, and a few sprinkles will fall across Mongolia as the warm, moist air overrides the cooler air at the surface.

CENTRAL

Attention in the central region, especially the Ryukyu Islands, is focused on Typhoon 12W LIONROCK as it meanders to the east. Model solutions are still varied on this system, so the future is uncertain. Elsewhere across the region, a few scattered thunderstorms will pop up in the high country of south-central China, and a few afternoon thunderstorms are likely in Taiwan as well.

SOUTH

A tropical wave is moving into the Southeast Asian peninsula today, increasing rain chances across Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and Thailand. The Philippines will see fewer showers today as most of the energy in the region is located elsewhere. The air is a bit drier to the south over Indonesia, while Singapore and Malaysia will see the usual serving of afternoon storms.

TROPICS

TAAG, 24 AUG

We still have three systems on the books out in the tropics, with Typhoon 12W LIONROCK guarding the gates to the west, and Tropical Depression 14W and 92W INVEST fighting it out in the east to determine who gets the moisture to form.

Typhoon 12W LIONROCK was designated at its current status overnight. A very compact system, LIONROCK is at that sweet spot where SST’s (Sea-Surface Temperatures) are good, and Coriolis effects are strong, to help get that spin going. Fortunately, much of the moisture in the region has been trucked out by the three previous systems, or we could have a monster on our hands. In any case, model solutions are still all over the place with this thing, but it is looking more unlikely that any land areas will be affected by this system, other than a few passing thunderstorms in the Ryukyu Islands and southern Japan.

12W full, 24 AUG

Tropical Depression 14W was designated yesterday, but I think officials may have jumped the gun a bit on this one. Although it was looking rather impressive, it has since had much of its moisture stolen by a system to the north-northeast, 92W INVEST. I am certain these two areas will merge into a singular system, but don’t be surprised if J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) and J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency) relocated TD14W a bit farther to the NNE before the day is done.

14W full, 24 AUG

The aforementioned 92W INVEST is situated very close to TD14W, northeast of the Mariana Islands. This system will likely merge with 92W in the coming hours.

92W, 24 AUG

Elsewhere across the tropics, Guam has been seeing a lot of rain lately, which is causing some flooding issues on the island. High waves are also battering the shores as tropical systems keep popping up nearby, stirring up the water. The rest of the region will see plentiful moisture and energy translate into afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

Have a wonderful Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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