Archive | August 25, 2016

LIONROCK LOOKS NORTH TOWARDS TOKYO EARLY NEXT WEEK

 

Friday AM Sat Image

Friday AM Sat Image

It’s Friday morning and Lionrock continues to swirl east of Okinawa. Max winds reported were up to 35kts on the islands as the storm really remains well enough east to not cause any major problems. So for those who were worried about a weekend storm hitting the area those worries can be set aside at least for now. Do note though seas along the eastern seaboard of the southern Japanese islands will be extra rough today, up to 4-5 meters high at times.

 

The graphic below breaks down pretty well what Lionrock has been doing for the past week now.

photo

 

What about the forecast?

 

Well right now its complex, but the likely hood of Tokyo (yes Tokyo) being impacted by a typhoon earlier next week continues to grow. Not only impacted but coming in from the south east right off the water. ( Check the official JMA forecast here.  ) Take a look at the map below showing the multiple agency track, this is not numerical models but what the different countries across the western pacific expect.

agency

Graphic from Typhoon 2000

What’s causing this?

 

A few things but one of the big movers for the storm will be a front now pulling across northern areas of Japan. This front is rather potent actually firing up heavy rainfall across the Korean Pennisula through Eastern China.  Parts of Hokkadio and Tohoku have seen winds up to 70kph at times. Still there is a flood threat with 150mm of rainfall possible in these areas from the front.

Follow the JMA radar here.

Such a active front will hook Lionrock to the south and pull it North East through the weekend. Then there is the case of a second low forming over the sea of Japan by Monday which could be the catalyst for the storm to make a hard left over Tokyo Monday Evening.  As mentioned earlier coming in from the south west is not common and almost worst case scenario for the Kanto plain (greater Tokyo area)

 

With all these moving parts naturally we must say the extended range is uncertain.

 

Remember this all comes on the heals of Kompasu and Mindulle that swept over Japan early this week. Kompasu left one dead in Hokkaido while Mindulle flooded numerous rivers and injured over a dozen in the Tokyo area.

 

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Daily weather brief – Friday, August 26, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 26 AUG

NWPAC outlook, 26 AUG

NORTH

A fairly potent frontal system is stretched across the north region today, bringing a taste of autumn to Mongolia and portions of northern and central interior China. Some of that cooler air has made its way into Korea, where clouds and rain will hold temperatures back a significant amount. Tokyo and the central Pacific coast of Japan has a keen eye on Typhoon 12W LIONROCK (Dindo), as forecasts show the potential for the system to affect the region early next week.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

19

7 66 45

Mostly fair

Vladivostok

24

16 75 61

Mostly fair

Beijing

29

16 84 61

Mostly fair

Seoul

24

17 75 63

Periods of rain

Tokyo

31

25 88 77

Mostly fair

Xi’an

28

19 82 66

Partly cloudy

Shanghai

33

25 91 77

Scattered showers likely

 

CENTRAL

Typhoon 12W LIONROCK (Dindo) continues to swirl about to the east of Taiwan this morning. The system is wobbling and dancing around like a punch-drunk prize-fighter, however, forecasts are coming into better agreement, taking the storm to the northeast, and out of the central region. Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon in parts of the high country of southern China, as well as along the southeast coast. LIONROCK could churn up a few clouds and showers in Okinawa as well, as some of its outermost energy occasionally lashes out at the island. The heat will be on again over parts of the southern Chinese lowlands and northern Vietnam, with very uncomfortable heat indices on tap this afternoon under partly cloudy skies.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

26

16 79 61

Thunderstorms possible

Hong Kong

34

27 93 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Taipei

34

27 93 81

Partly cloudy

Naha

32

28 90 82

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Hanoi

35

26 95 79

Partly cloudy & HOT

 

SOUTH

Typhoon 12W LIONROCK (Dindo) continues to maintain strength far to the north-northeast of the Philippines. As the storm has deepened and drifted slowly south-southwest, more influence on the southwest monsoon is being felt, especially over the Philippine island of Luzon. We don’t expect a significant event, but the western provinces of the island can look forward to a bit of a soggy day as LIONROCK pulls away. Tropical moisture and energy in the form of a weak disturbance, 93W INVEST, is moving into central Indochina, bringing an increased chance for showers across the peninsula. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will also be on tap for areas to the south, as Indonesia, Brunei, Singapore, and Malaysia all get in on the act.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

34

26 93 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

32

26 90 79

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

31

26 88 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Davao City

33

25 91 77

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Brunei

33

25 91 77

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Singapore

32

26 90 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS

From four systems to two as 92W and 14W cannibalize each other into submission, leaving us with Typhoon 12W LIONROCK (Dindo) east of Taiwan, and the weak and fading 93W INVEST in the South China Sea.

TAAG, 26 AUG

TAAG, 26 AUG

Typhoon 12W LIONROCK, also named ‘Dindo’ by the Philippines’ weather agency PAGASA, has been drifting in a mostly south-southwesterly direction for the past several days, but is starting to indicate a change of course back to the northeast. 12W LIONROCK has weakened a bit, down to a Category 2 equivalent system on the Saffir-Simpson scale. 12W LIONROCK is expected to take a quicker northeasterly track, and then forecasts hint at a slow arcing counter-clockwise curve back to the northwest, with the central Japanese coast as a possible strike area early next week.

12W full, 26 AUG

12W full, 26 AUG

Elsewhere, we have a very weak disturbance, 93W INVEST, which is beginning to move the bulk of its energy onshore in central and northern Vietnam. What was a much more impressive trough of low pressure just two days ago has all but faded away.

93W, 26 AUG

93W, 26 AUG

Many locations in the remainder of the tropic region will see a good chance for showers or thunderstorms today, as increased cloud-cover lowers temperatures a bit as compared to yesterday’s readings. Western islands of Micronesia, the southern Marianas, and Wake Island will be the exceptions with little moisture and energy to work with.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

31

26 88 79

Partly cloudy

Yap

31

26 88 79

Mostly fair

Palau

29

27 84 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

31

27 88 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

29

23 84 73

Thunderstorms possible

Majuro

28

27 82 81

Thunderstorms possible

Wake

28

26 82 79

Partly cloudy

 

Have a fabulous Friday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

==================================================================

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DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFICIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

 

All rights reserved. © 2016 Westernpacificweather.com

Daily weather brief – Thursday, August 25, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 25 AUG

NWPAC outlook, 25 AUG

NORTH

Cooler air settles across parts of the north region; hints of changes that are coming in the next few weeks. A frontal system is draped over northern China, with cooler air having filtered down as far south as the recently heat-ravaged areas of interior central China, where temperatures are a full11C (20F) cooler than yesterday with clouds and showers. This front will bring a few thunderstorms to eastern Russia later this afternoon as it slides through, and showers will fall across northeastern China and Korea. And it looks like Japan’s tropical troubles may not be over just yet, as 12W LIONROCK is forecast by J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency) to make a turn to the northeast soon and slowly curve northwestward towards the country later this weekend.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

17

5 63 41

Mostly fair

Vladivostok

24

15 75 59

Thunderstorms likely

Beijing

29

16 84 61

Mostly fair

Seoul

33

22 91 72

Scattered showers likely

Tokyo

30

24 86 75

Mostly fair

Xi’an

28

22 82 72

Scattered showers likely

Shanghai

33

27 91 81

Partly cloudy

 

CENTRAL

The central region will see a fine day today, with a few scattered thunderstorms over the high country of southern China, and a stray shower or two near Okinawa thanks to the very strong and compact Typhoon 12W LIONROCK located just to the east. It will be a warm day across most of the region, and a hot day across southern China’s lowlands and northern Vietnam, as heat indices approach serious levels across the area.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

27

16 81 61

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Hong Kong

34

28 93 82

Partly cloudy

Taipei

34

26 93 79

Partly cloudy

Naha

32

28 90 82

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Hanoi

36

26 97 79

Partly cloudy & HOT

 

SOUTH

Tropical moisture is being dragged across the Philippines once again, although not to the same extent as what took place last week. 12W LIONROCK, also named “Dindo” by the Philippines weather agency PAGASA, is helping pull this moisture in from the South China Sea as it intensifies to the east of Okinawa, and 93W INVEST is slowly moving into Vietnam, but is also helping with the general monsoonal flow. Widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely for all of the south region today, with only Singapore seeing a break from the rain.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

32

26 90 79

Thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

32

26 90 79

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

31

27 88 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Davao City

32

26 90 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Brunei

33

25 91 77

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Singapore

32

26 90 79

Partly cloudy

 

TROPICS

Officially speaking, we have 4 systems out there, but only one seems to have its act together, even though it can‘t figure out where to go.

TAAG, 25 AUG

TAAG, 25 AUG

Typhoon 12W LIONROCK, also named “Dindo” by the Philippines’ weather agency PAGASA, continues to meander to the east of Okinawa, while getting very strong. Now a CAT 3 equivalent storm, forecasts seem to be settling on a general solution that turns it to the northeast, with a sweeping arc to the north towards central Japan later this weekend. Needless to say, this one bears watching.

12W full, 25 AUG

12W full, 25 AUG

Tropical Depression 14W has had its last updates issued by the JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) and J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency). What I suspected would take place has, as 12W and 92W INVEST pretty much stole its thunder.

14W full, 25 AUG

14W full, 25 AUG

The two INVEST areas are of some concern, as 92W INVEST looks a bit more solid today, and 93W INVEST tracks westward into Indochina from the South China Sea. 92W has potential for future development, so we’ll need to keep our eyes on that one too.

INVEST full, 25 AUG

INVEST full, 25 AUG

The biggest story across the tropics today is the intense heat, relatively speaking, in the absence of any significant cloud-cover over the region. Most locations will see a very warm afternoon under a few clouds, with occasional showers here and there.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

31

26 88 79

Partly cloudy

Yap

34

26 93 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Palau

30

27 86 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

32

27 90 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

33

23 91 73

Partly cloudy

Majuro

28

27 82 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Wake

29

26 84 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

 

Have a thrilling Thursday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

==================================================================

Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFICIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

 

All rights reserved. © 2016 Westernpacificweather.com