Daily weather brief – Thursday, August 25, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 25 AUG

NORTH

Cooler air settles across parts of the north region; hints of changes that are coming in the next few weeks. A frontal system is draped over northern China, with cooler air having filtered down as far south as the recently heat-ravaged areas of interior central China, where temperatures are a full11C (20F) cooler than yesterday with clouds and showers. This front will bring a few thunderstorms to eastern Russia later this afternoon as it slides through, and showers will fall across northeastern China and Korea. And it looks like Japan’s tropical troubles may not be over just yet, as 12W LIONROCK is forecast by J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency) to make a turn to the northeast soon and slowly curve northwestward towards the country later this weekend.

CENTRAL

The central region will see a fine day today, with a few scattered thunderstorms over the high country of southern China, and a stray shower or two near Okinawa thanks to the very strong and compact Typhoon 12W LIONROCK located just to the east. It will be a warm day across most of the region, and a hot day across southern China’s lowlands and northern Vietnam, as heat indices approach serious levels across the area.

SOUTH

Tropical moisture is being dragged across the Philippines once again, although not to the same extent as what took place last week. 12W LIONROCK, also named “Dindo” by the Philippines weather agency PAGASA, is helping pull this moisture in from the South China Sea as it intensifies to the east of Okinawa, and 93W INVEST is slowly moving into Vietnam, but is also helping with the general monsoonal flow. Widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely for all of the south region today, with only Singapore seeing a break from the rain.

TROPICS

Officially speaking, we have 4 systems out there, but only one seems to have its act together, even though it can‘t figure out where to go.

TAAG, 25 AUG

Typhoon 12W LIONROCK, also named “Dindo” by the Philippines’ weather agency PAGASA, continues to meander to the east of Okinawa, while getting very strong. Now a CAT 3 equivalent storm, forecasts seem to be settling on a general solution that turns it to the northeast, with a sweeping arc to the north towards central Japan later this weekend. Needless to say, this one bears watching.

12W full, 25 AUG

Tropical Depression 14W has had its last updates issued by the JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) and J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency). What I suspected would take place has, as 12W and 92W INVEST pretty much stole its thunder.

14W full, 25 AUG

The two INVEST areas are of some concern, as 92W INVEST looks a bit more solid today, and 93W INVEST tracks westward into Indochina from the South China Sea. 92W has potential for future development, so we’ll need to keep our eyes on that one too.

INVEST full, 25 AUG

The biggest story across the tropics today is the intense heat, relatively speaking, in the absence of any significant cloud-cover over the region. Most locations will see a very warm afternoon under a few clouds, with occasional showers here and there.

Have a thrilling Thursday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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