It’s Friday morning and Lionrock continues to swirl east of Okinawa. Max winds reported were up to 35kts on the islands as the storm really remains well enough east to not cause any major problems. So for those who were worried about a weekend storm hitting the area those worries can be set aside at least for now. Do note though seas along the eastern seaboard of the southern Japanese islands will be extra rough today, up to 4-5 meters high at times.
The graphic below breaks down pretty well what Lionrock has been doing for the past week now.
What about the forecast?
Well right now its complex, but the likely hood of Tokyo (yes Tokyo) being impacted by a typhoon earlier next week continues to grow. Not only impacted but coming in from the south east right off the water. ( Check the official JMA forecast here. ) Take a look at the map below showing the multiple agency track, this is not numerical models but what the different countries across the western pacific expect.
What’s causing this?
A few things but one of the big movers for the storm will be a front now pulling across northern areas of Japan. This front is rather potent actually firing up heavy rainfall across the Korean Pennisula through Eastern China. Parts of Hokkadio and Tohoku have seen winds up to 70kph at times. Still there is a flood threat with 150mm of rainfall possible in these areas from the front.
Such a active front will hook Lionrock to the south and pull it North East through the weekend. Then there is the case of a second low forming over the sea of Japan by Monday which could be the catalyst for the storm to make a hard left over Tokyo Monday Evening. As mentioned earlier coming in from the south west is not common and almost worst case scenario for the Kanto plain (greater Tokyo area)
With all these moving parts naturally we must say the extended range is uncertain.
Remember this all comes on the heals of Kompasu and Mindulle that swept over Japan early this week. Kompasu left one dead in Hokkaido while Mindulle flooded numerous rivers and injured over a dozen in the Tokyo area.
This is the first time since records started (1951) that 3 Ts made landfall in Hokkaido in 1 year pic.twitter.com/W3srPwXQoc
— Robert Speta (@robertspeta) August 22, 2016