Archive | August, 2016

TYPHOON LIONROCK BLOWS OVER NORTHERN JAPAN

TYPHOON LIONROCK is nearing landfall in northern Japan. New information will be posted below as it comes in, along with video updates at our youtube channel.

Also please watch NHKWORLD all day at the top of the hour for more information.  You can watch live at this link. 

Check the latest track here from JMA, they update it once a hour.

Latest Sat Images on the storm can be found here.

Follow High Resolution JMA RADAR here. 

Watch the storm come on shore here via coastal webcams. 

Another Webcam Link

1000JST

One women is missing in Iwate prefecture is missing after swept away in a flooded river.

0950JST

Record breaking rainfall reported in Hokkaido and Iwate.

Nukabiru Hokkaido reported 342mm of rainfall in 72hrs

Orito in Iwate reported 223mm of rainfall in just 24hrs.

1750JST

Typhoon Lionrock makes landfall in Iwate Prefecture. This is the first time on record (VIA JMA) a typhoon strength storm has impacted the Tohoku region.

1520JST

Max Gust Reports

Max Wind Gust

Max Wind Gust

1423JST

Total rainfall forecast updated for Japan

rainfall

1406JST

Evacuation advisories and warnings issued in Iwate prefecture. 

1104JST 

Max winds reported 106kph in Ishinomaki Miyagi Prefecture

1000JST

Story on farmers in Aomore prefecture harvesting their apple crop. It is a vital part of the economy in the region.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20160829_26/

0924JST

VIDEO UPDATE posted on Lionrock as it tracks north past Tokyo towards Tohoku

0700JST 

Over 100 flights cancelled mostly in northern Japan ahead of Lionrock

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/news/20160830_10/

0601JST Tuesday

Wind gust recorded at Choshi Chiba up to 85kph.

Monday Evening

Lionrock Tracks Near Tokyo, Tohoku to be impacted

Typhoon Lionrock continue to roll along the Japan coast today bringing the threat of damaging winds, heavy rains and pounding surf from the Izu islands to coastal Kanto to Tohoku.  In fact this storm could be the first typhoon to hit the Tohoku region still as a tropical system since records began in the 50s.

 

Video from Hachijo island shows pounding surf this morning along with high winds hitting the island. Max gust were reported on the southern Izu island where the storm passes near were up to 47kts around 8AM JST.

The Forecast

 

Typhoon Lionrock will continue to track north before turning more north east towards a passing front now over Japan. This from is the reason for the cooler temperatures and break from the summer heat that started on Sunday. It is also acting as a lure to pull the storm north west on its odd track that could take it in to Tohoku as the first tropical system to hit the area since records started.

 

The heaviest rainfall will be in Tohoku where the storm comes on shore, here 300-500mm is possible. The obvious threat of flooding and landslides will be very real as well across the same region that was battered by the March 11th earthquake and tsunami. Winds gusting to typhoon strength along with coastal damaging surf is also a threat, mostly in the right front quadrant of the storms track. Which could be in the Miyagi region near Sendai or just north.

 

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Tokyo should miss the brunt of the storm but overnight Monday in to Tuesday there will still be breezy conditions with Tropical Storm strength gust possible along Tokyo bay. This includes Haneda, (Tokyo airport) Kawasaki, Yokohama and Yokosuka.

 

For those in these areas I couldn’t worry about evacuating or boarding up windows. But simple preparations ahead of the storm (taking in laundry, taking care of trash, securing lawn furniture) only takes a few minutes and makes a huge difference.

 

Hope everyone stays safe during this typhoon. Please check our facebook page for continued updates as well as this story develops.

 

LIONROCK LOOKS NORTH TOWARDS TOKYO EARLY NEXT WEEK

 

Friday AM Sat Image

Friday AM Sat Image

It’s Friday morning and Lionrock continues to swirl east of Okinawa. Max winds reported were up to 35kts on the islands as the storm really remains well enough east to not cause any major problems. So for those who were worried about a weekend storm hitting the area those worries can be set aside at least for now. Do note though seas along the eastern seaboard of the southern Japanese islands will be extra rough today, up to 4-5 meters high at times.

 

The graphic below breaks down pretty well what Lionrock has been doing for the past week now.

photo

 

What about the forecast?

 

Well right now its complex, but the likely hood of Tokyo (yes Tokyo) being impacted by a typhoon earlier next week continues to grow. Not only impacted but coming in from the south east right off the water. ( Check the official JMA forecast here.  ) Take a look at the map below showing the multiple agency track, this is not numerical models but what the different countries across the western pacific expect.

agency

Graphic from Typhoon 2000

What’s causing this?

 

A few things but one of the big movers for the storm will be a front now pulling across northern areas of Japan. This front is rather potent actually firing up heavy rainfall across the Korean Pennisula through Eastern China.  Parts of Hokkadio and Tohoku have seen winds up to 70kph at times. Still there is a flood threat with 150mm of rainfall possible in these areas from the front.

Follow the JMA radar here.

Such a active front will hook Lionrock to the south and pull it North East through the weekend. Then there is the case of a second low forming over the sea of Japan by Monday which could be the catalyst for the storm to make a hard left over Tokyo Monday Evening.  As mentioned earlier coming in from the south west is not common and almost worst case scenario for the Kanto plain (greater Tokyo area)

 

With all these moving parts naturally we must say the extended range is uncertain.

 

Remember this all comes on the heals of Kompasu and Mindulle that swept over Japan early this week. Kompasu left one dead in Hokkaido while Mindulle flooded numerous rivers and injured over a dozen in the Tokyo area.

 

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Daily weather brief – Friday, August 26, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 26 AUG

NWPAC outlook, 26 AUG

NORTH

A fairly potent frontal system is stretched across the north region today, bringing a taste of autumn to Mongolia and portions of northern and central interior China. Some of that cooler air has made its way into Korea, where clouds and rain will hold temperatures back a significant amount. Tokyo and the central Pacific coast of Japan has a keen eye on Typhoon 12W LIONROCK (Dindo), as forecasts show the potential for the system to affect the region early next week.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

19

7 66 45

Mostly fair

Vladivostok

24

16 75 61

Mostly fair

Beijing

29

16 84 61

Mostly fair

Seoul

24

17 75 63

Periods of rain

Tokyo

31

25 88 77

Mostly fair

Xi’an

28

19 82 66

Partly cloudy

Shanghai

33

25 91 77

Scattered showers likely

 

CENTRAL

Typhoon 12W LIONROCK (Dindo) continues to swirl about to the east of Taiwan this morning. The system is wobbling and dancing around like a punch-drunk prize-fighter, however, forecasts are coming into better agreement, taking the storm to the northeast, and out of the central region. Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon in parts of the high country of southern China, as well as along the southeast coast. LIONROCK could churn up a few clouds and showers in Okinawa as well, as some of its outermost energy occasionally lashes out at the island. The heat will be on again over parts of the southern Chinese lowlands and northern Vietnam, with very uncomfortable heat indices on tap this afternoon under partly cloudy skies.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

26

16 79 61

Thunderstorms possible

Hong Kong

34

27 93 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Taipei

34

27 93 81

Partly cloudy

Naha

32

28 90 82

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Hanoi

35

26 95 79

Partly cloudy & HOT

 

SOUTH

Typhoon 12W LIONROCK (Dindo) continues to maintain strength far to the north-northeast of the Philippines. As the storm has deepened and drifted slowly south-southwest, more influence on the southwest monsoon is being felt, especially over the Philippine island of Luzon. We don’t expect a significant event, but the western provinces of the island can look forward to a bit of a soggy day as LIONROCK pulls away. Tropical moisture and energy in the form of a weak disturbance, 93W INVEST, is moving into central Indochina, bringing an increased chance for showers across the peninsula. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will also be on tap for areas to the south, as Indonesia, Brunei, Singapore, and Malaysia all get in on the act.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

34

26 93 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

32

26 90 79

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

31

26 88 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Davao City

33

25 91 77

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Brunei

33

25 91 77

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Singapore

32

26 90 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS

From four systems to two as 92W and 14W cannibalize each other into submission, leaving us with Typhoon 12W LIONROCK (Dindo) east of Taiwan, and the weak and fading 93W INVEST in the South China Sea.

TAAG, 26 AUG

TAAG, 26 AUG

Typhoon 12W LIONROCK, also named ‘Dindo’ by the Philippines’ weather agency PAGASA, has been drifting in a mostly south-southwesterly direction for the past several days, but is starting to indicate a change of course back to the northeast. 12W LIONROCK has weakened a bit, down to a Category 2 equivalent system on the Saffir-Simpson scale. 12W LIONROCK is expected to take a quicker northeasterly track, and then forecasts hint at a slow arcing counter-clockwise curve back to the northwest, with the central Japanese coast as a possible strike area early next week.

12W full, 26 AUG

12W full, 26 AUG

Elsewhere, we have a very weak disturbance, 93W INVEST, which is beginning to move the bulk of its energy onshore in central and northern Vietnam. What was a much more impressive trough of low pressure just two days ago has all but faded away.

93W, 26 AUG

93W, 26 AUG

Many locations in the remainder of the tropic region will see a good chance for showers or thunderstorms today, as increased cloud-cover lowers temperatures a bit as compared to yesterday’s readings. Western islands of Micronesia, the southern Marianas, and Wake Island will be the exceptions with little moisture and energy to work with.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

31

26 88 79

Partly cloudy

Yap

31

26 88 79

Mostly fair

Palau

29

27 84 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

31

27 88 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

29

23 84 73

Thunderstorms possible

Majuro

28

27 82 81

Thunderstorms possible

Wake

28

26 82 79

Partly cloudy

 

Have a fabulous Friday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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