NWPAC outlook, 30 SEP
NORTH
Cooler and drier air continues to filter down into the north region as autumn takes a firm hold of the weather. A stalled cold front over the eastern portions of the region will bring cloudy skies to Japan and Korea, and a few thunderstorms across eastern China. Another shot of cooler air is moving into Mongolia, bringing in some clouds and showers as well. Elsewhere, interior locales of northern China and southeastern Russia will see plenty of sunshine and pleasant temperatures.
| City |
High/Low
C
|
High/Low
F |
Conditions
|
| Ulaanbaatar |
15
|
0 |
59 |
32 |
Mostly cloudy
|
| Vladivostok |
20
|
18 |
68 |
64 |
Mostly fair
|
| Beijing |
25
|
13 |
77 |
55 |
Mostly fair
|
| Seoul |
23
|
14 |
73 |
57 |
Mostly cloudy
|
| Tokyo |
23
|
19 |
73 |
66 |
Mostly cloudy
|
| Xi’an |
28
|
17 |
82 |
63 |
Mostly fair
|
| Shanghai |
29
|
24 |
84 |
75 |
Scattered thunderstorms possible
|
CENTRAL
Autumn weather settles in across the central region as well, as cooler and drier air works its way into the region in small portions. Attention is focused on Tropical Storm 21W CHABA, as forecasts show continued development, and a track very close to Okinawa next week. Lingering tropical moisture will interact with the cooler surface layer and generate some showers and thundershowers across much of the region, with partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures across northern Indochina and southern China this afternoon.
| City |
High/Low
C
|
High/Low
F |
Conditions
|
| Kunming |
19
|
15 |
66 |
59 |
Scattered thunderstorms possible
|
| Hong Kong |
28
|
24 |
82 |
75 |
Scattered showers possible
|
| Taipei |
32
|
26 |
90 |
79 |
Scattered thunderstorms possible
|
| Naha |
31
|
27 |
88 |
81 |
Mostly fair
|
| Hanoi |
32
|
24 |
82 |
75 |
Partly cloudy
|
SOUTH
No autumn weather for the south region as most location bask in the warm and humid tropical air mass settled in over the region. The warm afternoon sun will interact with an upper-level low pressure trough, bringing a good chance for thunderstorms for Southeast Asia and the northern Philippines. To the south, with less atmospheric action to help fire off thunderstorms, a few scattered storms could pop up in spots, but coverage will be spotty at best.
| City |
High/Low
C
|
High/Low
F |
Conditions
|
| Siem Reap |
30
|
24 |
86 |
79 |
Thunderstorms likely
|
| Ho Chi Minh |
31
|
24 |
88 |
75 |
Thunderstorms likely
|
| Manila |
30
|
25 |
88 |
77 |
Thunderstorms likely
|
| Davao City |
32
|
24 |
90 |
75 |
Scattered thunderstorms likely
|
| Brunei |
33
|
25 |
91 |
77 |
Scattered thunderstorms likely
|
| Singapore |
32
|
25 |
90 |
77 |
Thunderstorms likely
|
TROPICS
With the demise of 20W MEGI, attention in the tropics turns to the developing Tropical storm CHABA, and 99W INVEST a bit farther to the east.
TAAG, 30 SEP
Tropical storm 21W CHABA has been assessed as a tropical storm by both J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency) and J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) as it slowly gathers strength in the western Pacific. Current forecast tracks are in fairly good agreement through the first 72 hours, deviating a bit in the final solutions. However, the storm appears to be tracking more or less towards Okinawa in the coming days, as it grows into a fairly strong typhoon, with JMA showing a pass well to the east, and JTWC taking the system right over Okinawa next week.
21W full, 30 SEP
99W INVEST was designated yesterday, east of the Mariana Islands. The latest runs of computer model forecasts are in general agreement, showing a relatively weak system tracking towards the northern Philippines/Luzon Strait by next weekend.
99W INVEST, 30 SEP
For today, most locations within the tropic region will see a good chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms, as deep tropical moisture interacts with scattered pockets of energy.
| City |
High/Low
C
|
High/Low
F |
Conditions
|
| Guam |
31
|
26 |
88 |
79 |
Scattered thunderstorms likely
|
| Yap |
30
|
26 |
86 |
79 |
Scattered thunderstorms likely
|
| Palau |
29
|
27 |
84 |
81 |
Scattered thunderstorms likely
|
| Chuuk |
31
|
26 |
88 |
79 |
Scattered thunderstorms likely
|
| Pohnpei |
27
|
22 |
81 |
72 |
Scattered thunderstorms likely
|
| Majuro |
28
|
27 |
82 |
81 |
Scattered thunderstorms likely
|
| Wake |
30
|
27 |
86 |
81 |
Scattered thunderstorms likely
|
Have a fabulous Friday!
Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA
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September 30, 2016 
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