WesternPacificWeather.com

CHABA SETS EYES ON OKINAWA OVER THE WEEKEND

September 30, 2016 by robertspeta 0 Comments

As we head in to October the Typhoon season has started move past its peak but its not over by a long shot. That is evident with our latest

VIS / IR SAT

tropical system Chaba now stirring up the oceans west of Guam this Friday.

Tropical Storm Chaba does not show the same signs of massive explosive intensification like we seen with Meranti or Megi, but it still has the potential to bring some rough weather at the start of the work week for the southern Japanese islands through Kyushu and Shikoku.

The storm is tracking north west along the western periphery of the sub-tropical ridge located over the Ogasawara islands. This ridge should keep in on this north westerly track heading through the weekend taking it close or right over Okinawa by Monday morning.

In fact based on Numerical and Agency guidance there is confidence that Okinawa will see some sort of impact from Chaba, the question is how much?

As is often the case with northerly tracking storms in late season the right side compared the left side of a typhoon could mean a dramatic difference, from winds topping 200kph to just barely tropical storm strength difference.

chaba

This is because of the forward motion of the storm and how dry air can often break down the left side of a storm. The graphic below gives you a quick idea.

So what this means is that if Chaba was to hit Okinawa just to the west it would mean a full blown typhoon on this southern island of Japan. Just to the right would result in a moderate storm and likely below typhoon strength winds.

Thus preparing for the storm is necessary, but do not be surprised if at the last moment the forecast and conditions change.

Beyond Okinawa the Amami islands, Kyushu, and Shikoku need to watch the storm closely as some models indicate at this time a major rain maker setting up mid-week for the area. This is something that is in the long range and could vary based on the forecast much like Okinawa. So keep checking back in for new updates and as always follow us on Facebook.

Uncategorized

Daily weather brief – Friday, September 30, 2016

September 30, 2016 by voxianguy 0 Comments

NWPAC outlook, 30 SEP

NORTH

Cooler and drier air continues to filter down into the north region as autumn takes a firm hold of the weather. A stalled cold front over the eastern portions of the region will bring cloudy skies to Japan and Korea, and a few thunderstorms across eastern China. Another shot of cooler air is moving into Mongolia, bringing in some clouds and showers as well. Elsewhere, interior locales of northern China and southeastern Russia will see plenty of sunshine and pleasant temperatures.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Ulaanbaatar	15	0	59	32	Mostly cloudy
Vladivostok	20	18	68	64	Mostly fair
Beijing	25	13	77	55	Mostly fair
Seoul	23	14	73	57	Mostly cloudy
Tokyo	23	19	73	66	Mostly cloudy
Xi’an	28	17	82	63	Mostly fair
Shanghai	29	24	84	75	Scattered thunderstorms possible

CENTRAL

Autumn weather settles in across the central region as well, as cooler and drier air works its way into the region in small portions. Attention is focused on Tropical Storm 21W CHABA, as forecasts show continued development, and a track very close to Okinawa next week. Lingering tropical moisture will interact with the cooler surface layer and generate some showers and thundershowers across much of the region, with partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures across northern Indochina and southern China this afternoon.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Kunming	19	15	66	59	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Hong Kong	28	24	82	75	Scattered showers possible
Taipei	32	26	90	79	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Naha	31	27	88	81	Mostly fair
Hanoi	32	24	82	75	Partly cloudy

SOUTH

No autumn weather for the south region as most location bask in the warm and humid tropical air mass settled in over the region. The warm afternoon sun will interact with an upper-level low pressure trough, bringing a good chance for thunderstorms for Southeast Asia and the northern Philippines. To the south, with less atmospheric action to help fire off thunderstorms, a few scattered storms could pop up in spots, but coverage will be spotty at best.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Siem Reap	30	24	86	79	Thunderstorms likely
Ho Chi Minh	31	24	88	75	Thunderstorms likely
Manila	30	25	88	77	Thunderstorms likely
Davao City	32	24	90	75	Scattered thunderstorms likely
Brunei	33	25	91	77	Scattered thunderstorms likely
Singapore	32	25	90	77	Thunderstorms likely

TROPICS

With the demise of 20W MEGI, attention in the tropics turns to the developing Tropical storm CHABA, and 99W INVEST a bit farther to the east.

TAAG, 30 SEP

Tropical storm 21W CHABA has been assessed as a tropical storm by both J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency) and J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) as it slowly gathers strength in the western Pacific. Current forecast tracks are in fairly good agreement through the first 72 hours, deviating a bit in the final solutions. However, the storm appears to be tracking more or less towards Okinawa in the coming days, as it grows into a fairly strong typhoon, with JMA showing a pass well to the east, and JTWC taking the system right over Okinawa next week.

21W full, 30 SEP

99W INVEST was designated yesterday, east of the Mariana Islands. The latest runs of computer model forecasts are in general agreement, showing a relatively weak system tracking towards the northern Philippines/Luzon Strait by next weekend.

99W INVEST, 30 SEP

For today, most locations within the tropic region will see a good chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms, as deep tropical moisture interacts with scattered pockets of energy.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Guam	31	26	88	79	Scattered thunderstorms likely
Yap	30	26	86	79	Scattered thunderstorms likely
Palau	29	27	84	81	Scattered thunderstorms likely
Chuuk	31	26	88	79	Scattered thunderstorms likely
Pohnpei	27	22	81	72	Scattered thunderstorms likely
Majuro	28	27	82	81	Scattered thunderstorms likely
Wake	30	27	86	81	Scattered thunderstorms likely

Have a fabulous Friday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

==================================================================

Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFICIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

Special Piece, WestPacWx News & Events

TORNADO RIPS APART HOMES IN WESTERN JAPAN

September 29, 2016 by robertspeta 0 Comments

Western Japan has been battered by continued storms the past 24hrs due to a stationary front lingering over the country combined with moisture from whats left of Typhoon Megi over Eastern China.

The rainfall has been extreme with all time records being broke over 400mm in Nagasaki. But one thing that stood out this morning is the report of a tornado that damaged several homes in Fukuoka.

tornado-damage

The tornado injured one person a 50 year old man who was hit with debris in his chest.

It formed around 8:40pm during a particularly intense storm that was riding in off the east china sea.

Radar at time of Tornado

Today more storms are possible as the front slowly drifts south east across Japan.

This time of year is considered Tornado season in Japan. In September an average of 60-80 tornado or downburst events take place across the country often a result of Typhoons. Kind of the opposite of the USA where tornado season peaks as a result of spring storms.

tornado-graph