Daily weather brief – Friday, September 2, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 02 SEP

NORTH

Attention in the north region is focused on newly-designated Typhoon 1216/15W NAMTHEUN as it rears its ugly head east of Okinawa. The system gained strength over the last 24 hours, and was looking quite impressive on radar and satellite imagery. Forecasts continue to take the storm to the westernmost tip of the main Japanese island of Kyushu, near Sasebo, early Monday Morning, and into the Sea of Japan. Elsewhere across the region, slightly cooler air remains in place over portions of Mongolia, southeastern Russia, northern China, and the Korean peninsula. Part of this is due to the remnants of 12W which are lingering over the area. Bright sunshine will grace the skies of the southern tier of the region, with temperatures and heat indices approaching hazardous levels across interior central China.

CENTRAL

Plentiful moisture is in place across much of the central region, which will help fuel development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the region. The exception is Okinawa, where strong northerly flow from the nearby Typhoon NAMETHEUN will keep the skies partly cloudy. Some storms could be strong this afternoon, especially over higher terrain, where flash flooding and landslides are possible.

SOUTH

The south region will see mostly benign conditions today, with the usual threat of daily afternoon thunderstorms in place over Indochina, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, and Indonesia. A few thunderstorms could also pop up in the southern Philippines however the northern Philippines will get a bit of a break today. Looking at the GFS computer forecast models, the solutions are pointing towards a great deal of cyclogenesis in the northern Philippine Sea over the next 14 days. Most of these areas will not develop into much, but there could be a cyclone or two spawned off of this boundary in the next two weeks. The gist of this is that the northern Philippines will see quite a bit of rainfall, albeit not a continual rain, through the middle of September.

TROPICS

The tropics remain relatively quiet, compared to recent weeks, with one compact typhoon and one area of interest to watch for.

TAAG, 02 SEP

Typhoon 1612/15W NAMTHEUN, also named “Enteng” by the Philippines’ weather agency PAGASA, has strengthened a bit over the past 24 hours as it moves slowly to the NNE, east of Okinawa. The storm is forecast to strengthen for the next 24 hours, before cooler SST’s (Sea-surface Temperatures) and increased VWS (Vertical Wind Shear) weaken it prior to landfall in southwestern Japan. Residents of western Japan, especially the island of Kyushu, should begin preparations now for a significant storm event late this weekend.

15W full, 02 SEP

The J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) has designated an area of disturbed weather in the Mariana Islands as 95W INVEST. This trough of low pressure will help generate showers and thunderstorms over the islands, but computer models don’t show much in the way of future development.

95W, 02 SEP

Elsewhere across the region, plentiful moisture and scattered pockets of energy will help spell afternoon showers and thunderstorms for most locations in the region.

Have a fabulous Friday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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