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Daily weather brief – Friday, September 2, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 02 SEP

NWPAC outlook, 02 SEP

NORTH

Attention in the north region is focused on newly-designated Typhoon 1216/15W NAMTHEUN as it rears its ugly head east of Okinawa. The system gained strength over the last 24 hours, and was looking quite impressive on radar and satellite imagery. Forecasts continue to take the storm to the westernmost tip of the main Japanese island of Kyushu, near Sasebo, early Monday Morning, and into the Sea of Japan. Elsewhere across the region, slightly cooler air remains in place over portions of Mongolia, southeastern Russia, northern China, and the Korean peninsula. Part of this is due to the remnants of 12W which are lingering over the area. Bright sunshine will grace the skies of the southern tier of the region, with temperatures and heat indices approaching hazardous levels across interior central China.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

21

9 70 48

Mostly fair

Vladivostok

22

19 72 66

Thunderstorms likely

Beijing

28

18 82 64

Mostly cloudy

Seoul

28

20 82 68

Mostly fair

Tokyo

31

23 88 73

Mostly fair

Xi’an

36

22 97 72

Mostly fair & HOT

Shanghai

33

24 91 75

Mostly fair

 

CENTRAL

Plentiful moisture is in place across much of the central region, which will help fuel development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms across the region. The exception is Okinawa, where strong northerly flow from the nearby Typhoon NAMETHEUN will keep the skies partly cloudy. Some storms could be strong this afternoon, especially over higher terrain, where flash flooding and landslides are possible.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

21

16 70 61

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Hong Kong

30

27 86 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Taipei

33

27 91 81

Thunderstorms likely

Naha

31

27 88 81

Partly cloudy

Hanoi

31

26 88 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

SOUTH

The south region will see mostly benign conditions today, with the usual threat of daily afternoon thunderstorms in place over Indochina, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, and Indonesia. A few thunderstorms could also pop up in the southern Philippines however the northern Philippines will get a bit of a break today. Looking at the GFS computer forecast models, the solutions are pointing towards a great deal of cyclogenesis in the northern Philippine Sea over the next 14 days. Most of these areas will not develop into much, but there could be a cyclone or two spawned off of this boundary in the next two weeks. The gist of this is that the northern Philippines will see quite a bit of rainfall, albeit not a continual rain, through the middle of September.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

33

26 91 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

33

26 91 79

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

32

26 90 79

Partly cloudy

Davao City

33

24 91 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Brunei

33

24 91 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Singapore

32

25 90 77

Scattered thunderstorms possible

 

TROPICS

The tropics remain relatively quiet, compared to recent weeks, with one compact typhoon and one area of interest to watch for.

TAAG, 02 SEP

TAAG, 02 SEP

Typhoon 1612/15W NAMTHEUN, also named “Enteng” by the Philippines’ weather agency PAGASA, has strengthened a bit over the past 24 hours as it moves slowly to the NNE, east of Okinawa. The storm is forecast to strengthen for the next 24 hours, before cooler SST’s (Sea-surface Temperatures) and increased VWS (Vertical Wind Shear) weaken it prior to landfall in southwestern Japan. Residents of western Japan, especially the island of Kyushu, should begin preparations now for a significant storm event late this weekend.

15W full, 02 SEP

15W full, 02 SEP

The J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) has designated an area of disturbed weather in the Mariana Islands as 95W INVEST. This trough of low pressure will help generate showers and thunderstorms over the islands, but computer models don’t show much in the way of future development.

95W, 02 SEP

95W, 02 SEP

Elsewhere across the region, plentiful moisture and scattered pockets of energy will help spell afternoon showers and thunderstorms for most locations in the region.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

31

26 88 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Yap

32

26 90 79

Partly cloudy

Palau

29

27 84 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

30

23 86 73

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Majuro

29

27 84 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Wake

30

27 86 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

 

Have a fabulous Friday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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