WesternPacificWeather.com

NORTH

Residents of southwestern Japan are keeping a close watch on Typhoon 1216/15W NAMTHEUN, as it churns away south of the archipelago. As with LIONROCK, NAMTHEUN is a rather compact system, so effects are not widely felt across the area. Residents of Kyushu and the prefectures of extreme southwestern Honshu should be making final preparations for this storm system. For more information on NAMTHEUN, please go to the “Tropics” section of this report. Elsewhere across the north region, cool, autumn-like air has moved into Mongolia and parts of northern China, where temperatures will struggle to reach the low teens C (low-mid 50’s F). South of this shot of cooler air, however, temperatures will be seasonably warm. Clouds and showers are likely from Mongolia to Japan due to frontal activity combining with lots of available moisture. The rest or the region will see just a mix of clouds and sun through the weekend.

City	Sat High C       F		Sun High C       F		Conditions Sat                         Sun
Ulaanbaatar	12	54	13	55	Mostly cloudy	Mostly cloudy
Vladivostok	22	72	22	72	Mostly cloudy	Periods of rain
Beijing	31	88	28	82	Mostly fair	Sctd. t-storms
Seoul	29	84	31	88	Sctd. showers	Partly cloudy
Tokyo	29	84	30	86	Sctd. showers	Sctd. showers
Xi’an	32	90	34	93	Mostly cloudy	Mostly fair
Shanghai	33	91	31	88	Mostly fair	Partly cloudy

 

CENTRAL

Plentiful moisture is entrenched across the central region, with ripples of tropical energy passing through just offshore, and that will spell a good chance for showers and thunderstorms region-wide this weekend. The most susceptible areas will be the offshore islands and coastal areas of southeastern China as another ripple of tropical energy slides by from the southwest. Showers and thunderstorms are also likely over the central Chinese highlands, with a risk of flash-flooding and landslides present. Rain chances extend southward into the lowlands of southern China and northern Vietnam, with periods of brief heavy rain possible.

City	Sat High C       F		Sun High C       F		Conditions Sat                         Sun
Kunming	22	72	21	70	Thunderstorms	Thunderstorms
Hong Kong	31	88	31	88	Thunderstorms	Sctd. t-storms
Taipei	29	84	26	79	Thunderstorms	Sctd. t-storms
Naha	31	88	31	88	Sctd. t-storms	Mostly fair
Hanoi	32	90	32	90	Sctd. t-storms	Sctd. t-storms

 

SOUTH

The south will see plentiful scattered showers and thunderstorms today, as abundant tropical moisture gets a lift from the intense afternoon sun. A weak tropical disturbance to the north of the Philippines will help generate a few heavy showers along coastal provinces of northwestern Luzon as it pulls away to the north-northeast. The remainder of the region will see those showers mixed in with lots of sunshine.

City	Sat High C       F		Sun High C       F		Conditions Sat                         Sun
Siem Reap	33	91	34	93	Sctd. t-storms	Mostly cloudy
Ho Chi Minh	33	91	34	93	Thunderstorms	Thunderstorms
Manila	31	88	31	88	Sctd. t-storms	Sctd. t-storms
Davao City	33	91	33	91	Thunderstorms	Sctd. t-storms
Brunei	31	88	32	90	Thunderstorms	Thunderstorms
Singapore	32	90	32	90	Partly cloudy	Thunderstorms

 

TROPICS

The tropics are staying active this weekend, with one fully-organized system and two wanna-be’s to keep things interesting.

Typhoon 1216/15W NAMTHEUN is moving through the northern Ryukyu Islands this weekend, as it tracks towards the southern-most Japanese main island of Kyushu. NAMTHEUN is forecast to track in a shallow arc, first to the north-northwest, and then turning to the north-northeast once it crosses land in western Kyushu Island sometime late Sunday or Early Monday. The system is forecast to strengthen slightly, before wind shear starts to degrade the system prior to landfall. All residents in the path of this system should be finishing preparations for this weather event.

Two other areas of investigation are present, with 95W INVEST swirling about in the Northern Mariana Islands, and the newly-designated 96W INVEST gathering itself east of Taiwan. The GFS computer forecast model has been rather consistent over the past few runs showing repeated cyclogenesis along a line of convergence stretching from the northern South China Sea into the northern Philippine Sea. The models don’t; show much in the way of strong systems, but once a swirl gets started; all bets are off in the NWPAC.

Elsewhere across the region, we’ve got the moisture and we’ve got scattered pockets of energy throughout, so afternoon showers and thunderstorms are a good possibility for most locations region-wide through the weekend.

City	Sat High C       F		Sun High C       F		Conditions Sat                         Sun
Guam	31	88	31	88	Sctd. t-storms	Thunderstorms
Yap	31	88	31	88	Mostly cloudy	Sctd. t-storms
Palau	28	82	28	82	Thunderstorms	Sctd. T-storms
Chuuk	31	88	29	84	Sctd. t-storms	Thunderstorms
Pohnpei	28	82	27	81	Partly cloudy	Sctd. t-storms
Majuro	29	84	29	84	Partly cloudy	Thunderstorms
Wake	30	86	29	84	Sctd. t-storms	Thunderstorms

 

Have a wonderful weekend!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, NRL, JMA, JTWC

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