Weekend weather brief – September 3/4, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 03/04 SEP

NWPAC outlook, 03/04 SEP

NORTH

Residents of southwestern Japan are keeping a close watch on Typhoon 1216/15W NAMTHEUN, as it churns away south of the archipelago. As with LIONROCK, NAMTHEUN is a rather compact system, so effects are not widely felt across the area. Residents of Kyushu and the prefectures of extreme southwestern Honshu should be making final preparations for this storm system. For more information on NAMTHEUN, please go to the “Tropics” section of this report. Elsewhere across the north region, cool, autumn-like air has moved into Mongolia and parts of northern China, where temperatures will struggle to reach the low teens C (low-mid 50’s F). South of this shot of cooler air, however, temperatures will be seasonably warm. Clouds and showers are likely from Mongolia to Japan due to frontal activity combining with lots of available moisture. The rest or the region will see just a mix of clouds and sun through the weekend.

City

Sat High

C       F

Sun High

C       F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Ulaanbaatar

12

54 13 55 Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

Vladivostok

22

72 22 72 Mostly cloudy

Periods of rain

Beijing

31

88 28 82 Mostly fair

Sctd. t-storms

Seoul

29

84 31 88 Sctd. showers

Partly cloudy

Tokyo

29

84 30 86 Sctd. showers

Sctd. showers

Xi’an

32

90 34 93 Mostly cloudy

Mostly fair

Shanghai

33

91 31 88 Mostly fair

Partly cloudy

 

CENTRAL

Plentiful moisture is entrenched across the central region, with ripples of tropical energy passing through just offshore, and that will spell a good chance for showers and thunderstorms region-wide this weekend. The most susceptible areas will be the offshore islands and coastal areas of southeastern China as another ripple of tropical energy slides by from the southwest. Showers and thunderstorms are also likely over the central Chinese highlands, with a risk of flash-flooding and landslides present. Rain chances extend southward into the lowlands of southern China and northern Vietnam, with periods of brief heavy rain possible.

City

Sat High

C       F

Sun High

C       F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Kunming

22

72 21 70 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Hong Kong

31

88 31 88 Thunderstorms

Sctd. t-storms

Taipei

29

84 26 79 Thunderstorms

Sctd. t-storms

Naha

31

88 31 88 Sctd. t-storms

Mostly fair

Hanoi

32

90 32 90 Sctd. t-storms

Sctd. t-storms

 

SOUTH

The south will see plentiful scattered showers and thunderstorms today, as abundant tropical moisture gets a lift from the intense afternoon sun. A weak tropical disturbance to the north of the Philippines will help generate a few heavy showers along coastal provinces of northwestern Luzon as it pulls away to the north-northeast. The remainder of the region will see those showers mixed in with lots of sunshine.

City

Sat High

C       F

Sun High

C       F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Siem Reap

33

91 34 93 Sctd. t-storms

Mostly cloudy

Ho Chi Minh

33

91 34 93 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Manila

31

88 31 88 Sctd. t-storms

Sctd. t-storms

Davao City

33

91 33 91 Thunderstorms

Sctd. t-storms

Brunei

31

88 32 90 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Singapore

32

90 32 90 Partly cloudy

Thunderstorms

 

TROPICS

The tropics are staying active this weekend, with one fully-organized system and two wanna-be’s to keep things interesting.

TAAG, 03 SEP

TAAG, 03 SEP

Typhoon 1216/15W NAMTHEUN is moving through the northern Ryukyu Islands this weekend, as it tracks towards the southern-most Japanese main island of Kyushu. NAMTHEUN is forecast to track in a shallow arc, first to the north-northwest, and then turning to the north-northeast once it crosses land in western Kyushu Island sometime late Sunday or Early Monday. The system is forecast to strengthen slightly, before wind shear starts to degrade the system prior to landfall. All residents in the path of this system should be finishing preparations for this weather event.

15W full, 03 SEP

15W full, 03 SEP

Two other areas of investigation are present, with 95W INVEST swirling about in the Northern Mariana Islands, and the newly-designated 96W INVEST gathering itself east of Taiwan. The GFS computer forecast model has been rather consistent over the past few runs showing repeated cyclogenesis along a line of convergence stretching from the northern South China Sea into the northern Philippine Sea. The models don’t; show much in the way of strong systems, but once a swirl gets started; all bets are off in the NWPAC.

INVEST full, 03 SEP

INVEST full, 03 SEP

Elsewhere across the region, we’ve got the moisture and we’ve got scattered pockets of energy throughout, so afternoon showers and thunderstorms are a good possibility for most locations region-wide through the weekend.

City

Sat High

C       F

Sun High

C       F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Guam

31

88 31 88 Sctd. t-storms

Thunderstorms

Yap

31

88 31 88 Mostly cloudy

Sctd. t-storms

Palau

28

82 28 82 Thunderstorms

Sctd. T-storms

Chuuk

31

88 29 84 Sctd. t-storms

Thunderstorms

Pohnpei

28

82 27 81 Partly cloudy

Sctd. t-storms

Majuro

29

84 29 84 Partly cloudy

Thunderstorms

Wake

30

86 29 84 Sctd. t-storms

Thunderstorms

 

Have a wonderful weekend!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, NRL, JMA, JTWC

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