Daily weather brief – Monday, September 5, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 05 SEP

NORTH

Tropical depression 1612/15W NAMTHEUN is tracking across southwestern Japan today, a mere shell of what it once was structurally. Residents of Kyushu and western Honshu, as well as southeastern South Korea, can still expect some heavy rainfall and gusty winds, along with a risk of landslides and flooding that normally accompanies a tropical system. Cooler autumn air is filtering down into Mongolia, bringing a noticeable dip to temperatures and humidity there. Drier air left behind the most recent frontal system has also lowered the humidity across much of the continental north region, leading to very warm days and pleasantly cool nights.

CENTRAL

Copious tropical moisture has been shifted into the central region by a large monsoonal feature, with numerous spots of energy draped along the chain. The most recent area to pop up is in the form of 96W INVEST, which appears to be ramping up quickly, and will likely be designated a tropical depression by day’s end. The GFS computer forecast simulations continue to show repeated cyclogenesis along the trough for the next 7-10 days, so this is likely to continue through mid-month. With all the available moisture in the region, all we will need is a lift from the warm afternoon sun to help generate showers and thunderstorms, and some could be heavy in spots.

SOUTH

The monsoon feature draped over the central region originates from the Indian Ocean, so the south region is getting its fair share of the moisture, especially the northernmost locales within the region. Most of the energy with the monsoon trough is being generated offshore, but there’s enough over the Southeast Asian peninsula to help fire off some heavy showers and thunderstorms. These pulses of energy are staying to the north of the Philippines, but monsoonal energy works its way down into the provinces of northwestern Luzon, trucking in some heavy rain at times. Moisture in the southern areas of the region will also get a lift from the intense sunshine, bringing a chance of thunderstorms to Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, and Indonesia.

TROPICS

A tropical monsoon feature has worked its way up near the 20 degree latitude level and has been lingering there for the past several days. This feature gave birth to NAMTHEUN, and forecast models show much more development along this feature for the better part of the next two weeks. For now, there is a rapidly-decaying 1612/15W NAMTHEUN, and a new kid on the block in the guise of 96W INVEST.

TAAG, 05 SEP

Tropical depression 1612/15W NAMTHEUN was downgraded from a tropical storm this morning by the J.M.A. (Japan Meteorology Agency) as it tracks over Kyushu Island in Japan. The system has encountered hostile atmospheric conditions over the past 48 hours, and now land interaction is doing the rest. What’s left of NAMTHEUN is expected to pick up forward speed and continue to decay in the Sea of Japan.

15W full, 05 SEP

96W INVEST is looking quite impressive this morning, and we have concluded that JMA will likely designate this system a tropical depression before the end of the day. Current computer forecasts show whatever 96W will form into to move to the NNE, similar to NAMETHUN.

96W SAT, 05 SEP

Elsewhere across the region, plentiful moisture and scattered pockets of energy will increase rain chances over the western locales of the region, while more stable and drier air is settling into the eastern half of the region, helping to clear the skies a bit.

Have a marvelous Monday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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