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Daily weather brief – Wednesday, September 7, 2016

September 6, 2016 by voxianguy 0 Comments

NWPAC outlook, 07 SEP

NORTH

The change in seasons is clearly evident in parts of the north region, where autumnal temperatures have settled into Mongolia and portions of northern China. Japan is keeping a wary eye on Tropical storm 1613 MALOU as it continues to track to the NE, with a forecast track taking it over southeastern Honshu later this week. A frontal system will team up with tropical monsoon moisture to bring rain to eastern China and Japan today, while the rest of the region enjoys a fairly decent day, weather-wise.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Ulaanbaatar	16	3	61	37	Partly cloudy
Vladivostok	24	17	75	63	Partly cloudy
Beijing	32	18	90	64	Mostly fair
Seoul	29	19	84	66	Partly cloudy
Tokyo	29	26	84	79	Thunderstorms likely
Xi’an	31	18	88	64	Mostly fair
Shanghai	26	22	79	72	Periods of rain

CENTRAL

Deep tropical moisture is in place across the central region, as the tropical monsoon front, similar to the méiyǔ/baiyu front of springtime fame, works its way into the region. The monsoon front has spawned two tropical systems thus far, the latest being TS MALOU, which is moving out of the region to the northeast, but will continue to drag lots of moisture over the Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan. The moisture, along with scattered pockets of energy will combine with the intense afternoon sunshine to stir up numerous showers and thunderstorms throughout the region. Some showers could be heavy, with flooding and landslide concerns in place, especially for higher elevations.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Kunming	22	16	72	61	Thunderstorms likely
Hong Kong	29	27	84	81	Thunderstorms likely
Taipei	32	27	90	81	Scattered thunderstorms likely
Naha	29	27	84	81	Thunderstorms likely
Hanoi	30	26	86	79	Thunderstorms likely

SOUTH

The monsoon front mentioned in previous sections gets its start in the south region, as moisture and energy are transported over from the Indian Ocean to the northeast over Indochina and the South China Sea. This monsoon front will continue to create showers and thunderstorms for the next several days, spawning a series of weak low pressure areas during that time. Showers and thunderstorms are likely over the Southeast Asian peninsula and parts of northern Luzon from this system, while tropical energy from the east will bring showers to the southern Philippines through the day.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Siem Reap	32	25	90	77	Thunderstorms likely
Ho Chi Minh	31	25	88	77	Thunderstorms likely
Manila	32	26	90	79	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Davao City	32	24	90	75	Thunderstorms possible
Brunei	33	24	91	75	Partly cloudy
Singapore	30	26	86	79	Thunderstorms likely

TROPICS

Only one organized system is on the books right now, depending on whom you ask, as J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency) continues tracking 1613 MALOU as a tropical storm, while the J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) is much more reluctant to start declaring messy, disorganized cloud clusters.

TAAG, 07 SEP

Tropical storm 1613 MALOU is a hot mess right now, with an exposed L.L.C.C. (low-level circulation center) and little in the way of organized banding. Some could classify this system as sub-tropical or even semi-tropical due to the structure and disorganization, however, sustained wind speeds suggest this system is indeed a tropical storm-strength entity, so it will be recognized as such. In the meantime, forecast tracks take it over southeastern Honshu later this week, affecting much of Japan’s biggest island over the next few days. It remains to be seen how strong it will be when it makes landfall, but forecasts are still calling for it to remain rather weak as it runs ashore.

1613 full, 07 SEP

The remainder of the tropics is a bit unsettled, with a large upper-level low pressure area southeast of the Mariana Islands, and another curious low spinning about to the northeast of that feature. In any case, plentiful moisture and energy throughout the region will bring a good chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms to most locations in the region later this afternoon.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Guam	29	26	84	79	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Yap	31	26	88	79	Mostly cloudy
Palau	29	27	84	81	Thunderstorms possible
Chuuk	31	26	88	79	Thunderstorms possible
Pohnpei	31	21	88	70	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Majuro	29	27	84	81	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Wake	30	27	86	81	Scattered thunderstorms possible

Have a wonderful Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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Special Piece, WestPacWx News & Events

MALOU TRACKS PAST OKINAWA AND HEADS TOWARDS TOKYO

September 6, 2016 by robertspeta 0 Comments

malou

Tropical Storm Malou by no means looks “pretty” this morning with half of its cloud cover being stripped away mainly on the North West side of the circulation. Still though to the South East there is some rough tropical storm strength conditions, same weather that kicked up in Okinawa on Tuesday. For those from Osaka to Tokyo expect heavy rainfall and coastal strong winds through Thursday morning as Malou is pulled north merging with this frontal area.

Japan Weather Outlook (On NHKWORLD)

Max winds near the coast could gust up to 126kph from the Kii Pennisula to the Kanto region. The strongest winds will be in those peninsulas along the pacific coast including the Nagoya area, the Izu Peninsula, Miura (this includes Yokosuka) and Chiba. Further inland for locations like Tokyo conditions will still be wet and breezy but nothing compared to what will be seen near the coast much like we have seen in previous storms.

To be honest though the winds will only be gusty at times and the rainfall will be the biggest issue. Some areas in central Honshu could see up to 150mm-200mm of total rainfall.

Previous Storm Tracks (On NHKWORLD)

Typhoon Mindulle was the closest storm to brush Tokyo, but in previous weeks there has been a total of 6 tropical systems to impact the entire country of Japan.

In Okinawa no real damage was reported outside of downed signs, tree limbs and flipped lawn furniture. Max winds were reported on the island up to 61kts or 112kph just shy of typhoon strength.

Uncategorized

TROPICAL STORMS MALOU FORMS NEAR OKINAWA

September 6, 2016 by robertspeta 0 Comments

The 13^th named storm of 2016 Tropical Storm Malou has been announced by JMA Tuesday morning following the gradual development of a low pressure area off of the monsoonal trough located north east of Luzon.

This storm at this time is not very good looking compared to what a standard typhoon looks like for this region but still it contains a lot of moisture which makes it dangerous. Just last week Typhoon Lionrock rocked northern Japan coming on shore as a disorganized storm but bringing wide spread heavy rains resulting in flooding and landslides.

Good news Malou is much further south in Typhoon the typhoon prone areas of the Okinawa islands, locations much more prepared for these type of storms.

track

For Okinawa Flooding is possible and people commuting around the island through the coming day should be aware of the hazards with this storm including low lying flooding and short time wind gust within the stronger cells embedded within in the storm. The worst of the storm is expected to roll over Okinawa Honto Tuesday evening through the overnight hours before gradually improving Wednesday.

warning

For the US Military there are ZERO warnings from JTWC on this storm, even though take a minute or two before winds kick up to secure a few outdoor things. Nothing to damaging is expected but as always flying trampolines are not a safe thing to have around.

Be sure to check the JMA forecast.

The long range track of Malou also shows the storm skirting the coast of Mainland Japan later this week. The intensity stays below typhoon threshold but with this being the 5^th storm to hit the country in only a few short weeks the probability of flooding is heightened.

Uncategorized

Daily weather brief – Tuesday, September 6, 2016

September 6, 2016 by voxianguy 0 Comments

NWPAC outlook, 06 SEP

NORTH

Cooler air has settled over portions of the north region as Japan eyes another forming tropical system that is expected to affect portions of the archipelago later this week. Tropical Storm 1613 MALOU, located east of Taiwan, has been designated by JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency). The system is expected to gain some strength, but stay below the typhoon threshold, as it skirts the coast of Honshu on Thursday and Friday. Elsewhere in the north region, much cooler and drier air continues to filter into Mongolia and northern China as a taste of autumn fills the air. Tropical moisture ahead of an incoming cold front will generate some clouds over eastern China, and scattered showers will fall across Mongolia and northern China as the warm, moist air overrides the cooler surface layer.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Ulaanbaatar	14	4	57	39	Scattered showers likely
Vladivostok	24	17	75	63	Partly cloudy
Beijing	33	21	91	70	Mostly cloudy
Seoul	28	19	82	66	Partly cloudy
Tokyo	31	26	88	79	Partly cloudy
Xi’an	27	18	81	64	Partly cloudy
Shanghai	28	22	82	72	Mostly cloudy

CENTRAL

A vast pool of tropical moisture has set up over the central region, as a monsoon front lingers just to the south along the southern Chinese coast. The intense afternoon sun will combine with the moisture, and with some latent energy thanks to energy coming in from the north, to squeeze out some showers and thunderstorms across the region. Some storms could be heavy, with a risk of flash flooding and landslides, especially in the higher terrain.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Kunming	22	16	72	61	Thunderstorms likely
Hong Kong	31	27	88	81	Thunderstorms likely
Taipei	30	26	86	79	Thunderstorms likely
Naha	30	27	86	81	Thunderstorms likely
Hanoi	31	26	88	79	Thunderstorms likely

SOUTH

Deep moisture is locked in over the south region as well, as the monsoon front gets its start over the Indian Ocean and transports moisture and energy into the region from the southwest. Newly-formed 1613 MALOU will help drag some moisture over portions of the northern Philippines and bring some heavy showers to some locales there. The remainder of the region will see the usual dose of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with occasionally heavy rain possible.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Siem Reap	32	25	90	77	Thunderstorms likely
Ho Chi Minh	33	25	91	77	Thunderstorms likely
Manila	32	26	90	79	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Davao City	33	24	91	75	Thunderstorms possible
Brunei	32	24	90	75	Thunderstorms possible
Singapore	31	27	88	81	Scattered thunderstorms likely

TROPICS

As 15W NAMTHEUN exits the scene and fizzles out over the Sea of Japan, we find one newly-formed system and an honorable mention out there in the tropics today.

TAAG, 06 SEP

Tropical Storm 1613 MALOU, located east of Taiwan, has been designated by JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency). The system is expected to gain some strength, but stay below the typhoon threshold, as it skirts the coast of Honshu on Thursday and Friday. This system has formed along the monsoon front that extends over the South China Sea and into the Philippine Sea, where more cyclogenesis is forecasted in the near-term.

16W full, 06 SEP

One other area of investigation has been designated far to the east in the region, as 97W INVEST moves into the region from the central Pacific. Computer models are not doing much with this system however, this time of year, anything can happen so we will keep a close eye on things for you.

97W, 06 SEP

Elsewhere across the region, tropical moisture will combine with afternoon heating to generate showers and thunderstorms over most of the region, with easternmost locales once again seeing the driest weather region-wide.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Guam	32	26	90	79	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Yap	32	26	90	79	Thunderstorms possible
Palau	27	27	81	81	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Chuuk	32	26	90	79	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Pohnpei	32	24	90	75	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Majuro	28	27	82	81	Partly cloudy
Wake	30	27	86	81	Partly cloudy

Have a terrific Tuesday!