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NWPAC outlook, 07 SEP

NORTH

The change in seasons is clearly evident in parts of the north region, where autumnal temperatures have settled into Mongolia and portions of northern China. Japan is keeping a wary eye on Tropical storm 1613 MALOU as it continues to track to the NE, with a forecast track taking it over southeastern Honshu later this week. A frontal system will team up with tropical monsoon moisture to bring rain to eastern China and Japan today, while the rest of the region enjoys a fairly decent day, weather-wise.

CENTRAL

Deep tropical moisture is in place across the central region, as the tropical monsoon front, similar to the méiyǔ/baiyu front of springtime fame, works its way into the region. The monsoon front has spawned two tropical systems thus far, the latest being TS MALOU, which is moving out of the region to the northeast, but will continue to drag lots of moisture over the Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan. The moisture, along with scattered pockets of energy will combine with the intense afternoon sunshine to stir up numerous showers and thunderstorms throughout the region. Some showers could be heavy, with flooding and landslide concerns in place, especially for higher elevations.

SOUTH

The monsoon front mentioned in previous sections gets its start in the south region, as moisture and energy are transported over from the Indian Ocean to the northeast over Indochina and the South China Sea. This monsoon front will continue to create showers and thunderstorms for the next several days, spawning a series of weak low pressure areas during that time. Showers and thunderstorms are likely over the Southeast Asian peninsula and parts of northern Luzon from this system, while tropical energy from the east will bring showers to the southern Philippines through the day.

TROPICS

Only one organized system is on the books right now, depending on whom you ask, as J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency) continues tracking 1613 MALOU as a tropical storm, while the J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) is much more reluctant to start declaring messy, disorganized cloud clusters.

TAAG, 07 SEP

Tropical storm 1613 MALOU is a hot mess right now, with an exposed L.L.C.C. (low-level circulation center) and little in the way of organized banding. Some could classify this system as sub-tropical or even semi-tropical due to the structure and disorganization, however, sustained wind speeds suggest this system is indeed a tropical storm-strength entity, so it will be recognized as such. In the meantime, forecast tracks take it over southeastern Honshu later this week, affecting much of Japan’s biggest island over the next few days. It remains to be seen how strong it will be when it makes landfall, but forecasts are still calling for it to remain rather weak as it runs ashore.

1613 full, 07 SEP

The remainder of the tropics is a bit unsettled, with a large upper-level low pressure area southeast of the Mariana Islands, and another curious low spinning about to the northeast of that feature. In any case, plentiful moisture and energy throughout the region will bring a good chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms to most locations in the region later this afternoon.

Have a wonderful Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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