Archive | September 6, 2016

Daily weather brief – Wednesday, September 7, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 07 SEP

NWPAC outlook, 07 SEP

NORTH

The change in seasons is clearly evident in parts of the north region, where autumnal temperatures have settled into Mongolia and portions of northern China. Japan is keeping a wary eye on Tropical storm 1613 MALOU as it continues to track to the NE, with a forecast track taking it over southeastern Honshu later this week. A frontal system will team up with tropical monsoon moisture to bring rain to eastern China and Japan today, while the rest of the region enjoys a fairly decent day, weather-wise.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

16

3 61 37

Partly cloudy

Vladivostok

24

17 75 63

Partly cloudy

Beijing

32

18 90 64

Mostly fair

Seoul

29

19 84 66

Partly cloudy

Tokyo

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms likely

Xi’an

31

18 88 64

Mostly fair

Shanghai

26

22 79 72

Periods of rain

 

CENTRAL

Deep tropical moisture is in place across the central region, as the tropical monsoon front, similar to the méiyǔ/baiyu front of springtime fame, works its way into the region. The monsoon front has spawned two tropical systems thus far, the latest being TS MALOU, which is moving out of the region to the northeast, but will continue to drag lots of moisture over the Ryukyu Islands and Taiwan. The moisture, along with scattered pockets of energy will combine with the intense afternoon sunshine to stir up numerous showers and thunderstorms throughout the region. Some showers could be heavy, with flooding and landslide concerns in place, especially for higher elevations.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

22

16 72 61

Thunderstorms likely

Hong Kong

29

27 84 81

Thunderstorms likely

Taipei

32

27 90 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Naha

29

27 84 81

Thunderstorms likely

Hanoi

30

26 86 79

Thunderstorms likely

 

SOUTH

The monsoon front mentioned in previous sections gets its start in the south region, as moisture and energy are transported over from the Indian Ocean to the northeast over Indochina and the South China Sea. This monsoon front will continue to create showers and thunderstorms for the next several days, spawning a series of weak low pressure areas during that time. Showers and thunderstorms are likely over the Southeast Asian peninsula and parts of northern Luzon from this system, while tropical energy from the east will bring showers to the southern Philippines through the day.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

32

25 90 77

Thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

31

25 88 77

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

32

26 90 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Davao City

32

24 90 75

Thunderstorms possible

Brunei

33

24 91 75

Partly cloudy

Singapore

30

26 86 79

Thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS

Only one organized system is on the books right now, depending on whom you ask, as J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency) continues tracking 1613 MALOU as a tropical storm, while the J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) is much more reluctant to start declaring messy, disorganized cloud clusters.

TAAG, 07 SEP

TAAG, 07 SEP

Tropical storm 1613 MALOU is a hot mess right now, with an exposed L.L.C.C. (low-level circulation center) and little in the way of organized banding. Some could classify this system as sub-tropical or even semi-tropical due to the structure and disorganization, however, sustained wind speeds suggest this system is indeed a tropical storm-strength entity, so it will be recognized as such. In the meantime, forecast tracks take it over southeastern Honshu later this week, affecting much of Japan’s biggest island over the next few days. It remains to be seen how strong it will be when it makes landfall, but forecasts are still calling for it to remain rather weak as it runs ashore.

1613 full, 07 SEP

1613 full, 07 SEP

The remainder of the tropics is a bit unsettled, with a large upper-level low pressure area southeast of the Mariana Islands, and another curious low spinning about to the northeast of that feature. In any case, plentiful moisture and energy throughout the region will bring a good chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms to most locations in the region later this afternoon.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

29

26 84 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Yap

31

26 88 79

Mostly cloudy

Palau

29

27 84 81

Thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

31

21 88 70

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Majuro

29

27 84 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Wake

30

27 86 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

 

Have a wonderful Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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MALOU TRACKS PAST OKINAWA AND HEADS TOWARDS TOKYO

malou

Tropical Storm Malou by no means looks “pretty” this morning with half of its cloud cover being stripped away mainly on the North West side of the circulation. Still though to the South East there is some rough tropical storm strength conditions, same weather that kicked up in Okinawa on Tuesday. For those from Osaka to Tokyo expect heavy rainfall and coastal strong winds through Thursday morning as Malou is pulled north merging with this frontal area.

 

Japan Weather Outlook (On NHKWORLD)

Japan Weather Outlook (On NHKWORLD)

Max winds near the coast could gust up to 126kph from the Kii Pennisula to the Kanto region. The strongest winds will be in those peninsulas along the pacific coast including the Nagoya area, the Izu Peninsula, Miura (this includes Yokosuka) and Chiba.  Further inland for locations like Tokyo conditions will still be wet and breezy but nothing compared to what will be seen near the coast much like we have seen in previous storms.

To be honest though the winds will only be gusty at times and the rainfall will be the biggest issue. Some areas in central Honshu could see up to 150mm-200mm of total rainfall.

 

Previous Storm Tracks (On NHKWORLD)

Previous Storm Tracks (On NHKWORLD)

Typhoon Mindulle was the closest storm to brush Tokyo, but in previous weeks there has been a total of 6 tropical systems to impact the entire country of Japan.

In Okinawa no real damage was reported outside of downed signs, tree limbs and flipped lawn furniture.  Max winds were reported on the island up to 61kts or 112kph just shy of typhoon strength.

TROPICAL STORMS MALOU FORMS NEAR OKINAWA

The 13th named storm of 2016 Tropical Storm Malou has been announced by JMA Tuesday morning following the gradual development of a low pressure area off of the monsoonal trough located north east of Luzon.

 

This storm at this time is not very good looking compared to what a standard typhoon looks like for this region but still it contains a lot of moisture which makes it dangerous. Just last week Typhoon Lionrock rocked northern Japan coming on shore as a disorganized storm but bringing wide spread heavy rains resulting in flooding and landslides.

 

Good news Malou is much further south in Typhoon the typhoon prone areas of the Okinawa islands, locations much more prepared for these type of storms.

track

For Okinawa Flooding is possible and people commuting around the island through the coming day should be aware of the hazards with this storm including low lying flooding and short time wind gust within the stronger cells embedded within in the storm. The worst of the storm is expected to roll over Okinawa Honto Tuesday evening through the overnight hours before gradually improving Wednesday.

warning

For the US Military there are ZERO warnings from JTWC on this storm, even though take a minute or two before winds kick up to secure a few outdoor things. Nothing to damaging is expected but as always flying trampolines are not a safe thing to have around.

 Be sure to check the JMA forecast. 

The long range track of Malou also shows the storm skirting the coast of Mainland Japan later this week. The intensity stays below typhoon threshold but with this being the 5th storm to hit the country in only a few short weeks the probability of flooding is heightened.