Only days after our 13th named storm the 14th of 2016 is set to be named this coming weekend just towards the west of Guam.  As of Friday morning the US Military (JTWC) upgraded the area to a tropical depression and on their latest warning expect it to track North West towards the southern Japanese islands possibly nearing Okinawa.


The National Weather Service Guam has issued no Advisories on the storm but waves still could be high along the west coast of the islands.


The larger worry will be exactly where is this storm going in the coming days. Models are agreeing on a typhoon

Vis / IR

forming in this area but disagree on the timing with the ECMWF apparently picking up on the TD and the GFS showing a storm developing next week in the same spot but taking the same track.


In other words models are still trying to figure it out, so instead of digging in to it to much right now what we should understand is the Philippine sea is a breeding ground for typhoons and we are in the peak of the season. This means a storm is likely to form as long as a low pressure area is there and is not being torn apart by any outside forces. This includes wind shear, dry air or other areas of low pressure nearby.


At this time it looks like conditions will be favorable for development in the Philippines sea in to next week.


If you are in Luzon or Taiwan or Okinawa right now is not the time to ask “will it hit my house”.

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