Weekend weather brief – September 10/11, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 10/11 SEP

NWPAC outlook, 10/11 SEP

NORTH

Cooler air continues to settle into portions of the north region this weekend, aided by a shift in the weather towards more of an autumnal pattern, especially over Mongolia, northern China, and southeastern Russia. Attention is focused on TD16W west of Guam, as forecasts show the system affecting the Ryukyu Islands by mid-week, and possibly southern Japan later as we near the end of the week. A couple of slow-moving storm system will bring showers and thunderstorms to eastern locales within the region, with occasionally heavy rain possible.

City

Sat High

C       F

Sun High

C       F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Ulaanbaatar

19

66 21 70 Mostly fair

Mostly fair

Vladivostok

18

64 20 68 Periods of rain

Sctd. showers

Beijing

31

88 26 79 Partly cloudy

Thunderstorms

Seoul

28

82 29 84 Partly cloudy

Mostly fair

Tokyo

30

86 25 77 Mostly fair

Periods of rain

Xi’an

32

90 33 91 Mostly fair

Mostly fair

Shanghai

29

84 27 81 Mostly cloudy

Sctd. showers

 

CENTRAL

TD 16W, west of Guam, is forecast to become a significant storms system as it traverses the very warm waters of the Philippines Sea over the next 4 days. Current forecasts show the system’s sustained winds to be near 125 knots (232 kph), a category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale, on Wednesday as it approaches the Ryukyu Islands of southern Japan. Elsewhere across the region, plentiful moisture is interacting with what has transitioned into a stalled frontal boundary and baroclinic zone parallel to the coast of southeastern China. This boundary will be a focusing point for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, with locally heavy rainfall possible, especially over the higher terrain.

City

Sat High

C       F

Sun High

C       F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Kunming

17

63 22 72 Sctd. showers

Partly cloudy

Hong Kong

29

84 31 88 Sctd. t-storms

Thunderstorms

Taipei

30

86 32 90 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Naha

30

86 30 86 Partly cloudy

Sctd. t-storms

Hanoi

29

84 28 82 Sctd. t-storms

Sctd. showers

 

SOUTH

Tropical concerns have reared up in the South China Sea as tropical disturbance 91W INVEST emerges into open water from the Philippines. Current forecast models are showing weak development of this system, and a general track towards Vietnam over the course of the week. Otherwise, a rather benign weather pattern will transpire in the south region over the weekend, as deep tropical moisture gets a lift from the intense sunshine, which is at peak intensity and angle as it tracks slowly to the south towards the equinox with each passing day.

City

Sat High

C       F

Sun High

C       F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Siem Reap

33

91 32 90 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Ho Chi Minh

32

90 31 88 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Manila

32

90 32 90 Sctd. t-storms

Sctd. t-storms

Davao City

31

88 32 90 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Brunei

31

88 32 90 Sctd. showers

Sctd. t-storms

Singapore

32

90 31 88 Thunderstorms

Sctd. t-storms

 

TROPICS

Although activity in the tropics had lulled a bit over the past couple of weeks, compared to the explosion of activity in August, we now have another period of activity ramping up, with one tropical depression, and three areas of investigation to keep an eye on.

TAAG, 10 SEP

TAAG, 10 SEP

Tropical depression 16W is ramping up west of Guam, and is looking quite impressive on satellite photos this morning. It would not surprise me to have this system reach tropical storm status later this afternoon as it slowly tracks to the west. Current long-range forecasts show the system steadily gaining strength as it rolls through the very warm water of the Philippine Sea, with peak intensity at 125 knots (232kph), or a category 4 equivalent on the Saffir-Simpson tropical cyclone scale, as it approaches the Ryukyu Islands on Wednesday and Thursday. This system will be watched closely, not only for the possible effects to locales in its track, but also to locations far to the south and southwest which may see an increase in monsoonal moisture as it passes to the north.

16W full, 10 SEP

16W full, 10 SEP

Three other areas of disturbed weather are out there in the forms of 99W, 90W, and 91W INVESTS. 99W has raced to the north over the past 24 hours, aided by an upper-level low pressure area to its west, which has pulled the system poleward. This system is not expected to develop as it continues to enter a less favorable environment. 90W INVEST poses the biggest mystery right now, as models keep drifting back and forth on the future of this system. For now, we will watch it to see how things develop. Finally, 91W INVEST has emerged out over the open water of the South China Sea following its trip across the Philippines over the past 48 hours. Current forecasts are showing weak development of this system as it slowly tracks to the west into Vietnam.

INVEST full, 10 SEP

INVEST full, 10 SEP

Elsewhere across the tropics, tropical moisture and scattered pockets of energy will bring about a chance for showers and thunderstorms region-wide as the intense afternoon sun heats things up each day.

City

Sat High

C       F

Sun High

C       F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Guam

32

90 31 88 Sctd. t-storms

Thunderstorms

Yap

31

88 31 88 Sctd. t-storms

Thunderstorms

Palau

28

82 28 82 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Chuuk

32

90 31 88 Sctd. t-storms

Sctd. t-storms

Pohnpei

32

90 30 86 Sctd. t-storms

Sctd. t-storms

Majuro

29

84 29 84 Partly cloudy

Sctd. t-storms

Wake

31

88 30 86 Thunderstorms

Sctd. t-storms

 

Have a wonderful weekend!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, NRL, JMA, JTWC

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