Archive | September 12, 2016

Powerful Typhoon Meranti Threatens Luzon, Batanes and Taiwan

The tropics are on fire today with not one but three named storm systems stirring up the ocean across the Western Pacific.

 

  • Nearing the Luzon Strait is Monster Typhoon Meranti with a pressure of 905hpa and winds over 300kph
  • East of Meranti in the Philippine Sea is Malakas which threatens Japan and the Southern Japanese islands including Okinawa.

The most concerning storm for the region is Meranti, mainly because of its intense strength it reached as it

IR SAT

moved over the tropical fuel tank of the Philippine Sea. It is almost certain storms will strengthen when moving through this area in the Western Pacific and sometimes as is the case with Meranti they rapidly explode. We most recently seen this with Typhoon Nepartak back in early July. That storm left over 80 dead in Taiwan and South Eastern China.

 

Heading in to Tuesday it looks like Meranti has passes its peak strength, the northern semi-circle is interacting with dry air degrading the convection. If this keeps up it would mean for less severe and lasting conditions for Southern Taiwan. But that is only if it was to maintain a slow weakening prior to passing over the Batanes islands in the Luzon Strait Wednesday morning.

The Batanes Islands in fact will take the worst of this storm, this group of islands located north of Luzon is home to about 17,000 Filipino residents who are typhoon resistant. The classic homes on this island are made of coral rock and stones making them capable of withstanding up to even Cat 5 winds.

PAGASA STORM TRACK

PAGASA STORM TRACK

Still though PAGASA has issued warnings for the island including the threat of;

Impacts of the wind

  • Heavy damage to high–risk structures;
  • Moderate damage to medium- risk structures;
  • Light damage to low-risk structures
  • Increasing damage (up to more than 50%) to old, dilapidated residential structures and houses of light materials. Majority of all nipa and cogon houses may be unroofed or destroyed
  • Houses of medium strength materials (old, timber or mixed timber-CHB structures, usually with G.I. roofing’s); some warehouses or bodega-type structures are unroofed.
  • There may be widespread disruption of electrical power and communication services.
  • Almost all banana plants are downed
  • Some big trees (acacia, mango, etc.) are broken or uprooted,
  • Dwarf-type or hybrid coconut trees are tilted or downed.
  • Rice and corn crops may suffer heavy losses
  • Damage to shrubbery and trees with foliage blown off; some large trees blown down.

Wave Height: > Ocean Wave Height: (Open Sea) > 14.0 meters

Storm surge of up to 2.0 meters is possible at coastal areas.

 

South Eastern Taiwan will also see a threat from this storm mainly in the form of heavy rainfall. The area is very prone to tremendous rain, floods and landslides when storms push south or right over Taiwan. This is a direct result of the peaks that run across the spine of the island that spike up to 3,000 meters high with the highest being 3,952 meters. Mountains so steep and so close to the ocean act as a wall squeezing out any potential moisture with these tropical systems and often amounting in incredible rain totals much higher than what numerical models predict.

storm

Being on the right front side of the storm though southern Taiwan will also see storm surge and damaging winds with gust in access of 300kph at times.  The Taiwan Weather Service CWB has issues Typhoon warnings for the southern coastal areas.

CWB Warnings Here

b20

Northern Luzon is on the less severe side of the storm but still close enough to see damaging winds and flooding rainfall. Signal force warnings have been issued across the islands north.  Low lying areas and flood plains are at highest risk as rain bands wrap in from the west around the storm.

 

Hong Kong and South East China?

 

Models are still somewhat split but confidence continues to build for Meranti to make landfall east of Hong Kong on Thursday. This would mean the city would miss out on the worst of the weather.

 

Yet coastal communities where the storm will come on shore will be at threat of storm surge, damaging winds and flooding. Especially since the storm will not sustain much weakening as it tracks through the gap between the landmasses of Taiwan and the Philippines.

Multiple Agency Tracks (typhoon2000)

Daily weather brief – Monday, September 12, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 12 SEP

NWPAC outlook, 12 SEP

NORTH

A cooler, autumnal air mass has settled over much of the north region today as signs of the change of seasons digs in. A stalled frontal system is draped across eastern Asia, from Japan westward over northern China. Clouds and showers are likely along this frontal boundary as deep moisture interacts with the instability near the front. All locations in the north will see a comfortable afternoon, with highs topping out below 30C (86F) region-wide.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

20

6 68 43

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Vladivostok

19

16 66 61

Partly cloudy

Beijing

27

17 81 64

Mostly fair

Seoul

28

19 82 66

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Tokyo

28

23 82 73

Scattered showers possible

Xi’an

27

17 81 63

Scattered showers possible

Shanghai

29

23 84 73

Partly cloudy

 

CENTRAL

Tropical troubles loom on the horizon later this week in the central region, as Typhoon 1614/14W MERANTI, also named “Ferdie” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, makes its way towards Taiwan later this week. I’ll have more on this system in the ‘tropics’ section of this report. Elsewhere across the region, plentiful moisture will interact with the intense daytime heating to squeeze out showers and thunderstorms across much of the region. Brief heavy rain, localized flooding, and a risk of landslides are possible, especially in the higher terrain.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

21

14 70 63

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Hong Kong

31

26 88 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Taipei

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Naha

30

27 86 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Hanoi

30

24 86 75

Thunderstorms likely

 

SOUTH

Deep tropical moisture is in place across the south region, with an area designated as a tropical depression by J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency) and listed as 91W INVEST by J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) stirring things up in the South China Sea east of Vietnam. This system will remain weak as it moves slowly westward into southeast Asia over the next couple of days, however, the circulation will pull in lots of moisture over southern Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand. The remainder of the region will also see a good chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms at the peak of daytime heating.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

29

24 84 75

Thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

28

24 82 75

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

32

26 90 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Davao City

32

24 90 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Brunei

31

24 88 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Singapore

31

26 88 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

 

TROPICS

Following a relative two-week lull in activity, the tropics are once again blowing up, with several systems to keep an eye on.

TAAG, 12 SEP

TAAG, 12 SEP

Typhoon 1614/14W MERANTI, also named “Ferdie” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, has exploded overnight, reaching Super-typhoon status as it tracks to the west-northwest. Current forecasts take this system into the Luzon Strait and into southern Taiwan later this week. For a more detailed look at MERANTI, please see the full report by WPWx Meteorologist Robert Speta.

16W full, 12 SEP

16W full, 12 SEP

Tropical depression 17W is far to the north, east of Japan. J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) as issued its final advisory on this system.

17W full, 12 SEP

17W full, 12 SEP

Tropical depression 18W popped up overnight near Guam an current forecasts strengthen this system and take it to the NW near the Ryukyu Islands later this week.

18W full, 12 SEP

18W full, 12 SEP

Tropical depression “b”, as listed by J.M.A, designated as 91W INVEST by J.T.W.C. is situated to the east of Vietnam as it slowly gathers strength. This system will move into Southeast Asia before it has a chance to get very strong.

91W full, 12 SEP

91W full, 12 SEP

Elsewhere across the tropics, scattered thunderstorms are on tap for most locations in the region as the deep moisture gets a lift from the hot afternoon sunshine.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

28

26 82 79

Thunderstorms likely

Yap

34

26 93 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Palau

29

27 84 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

31

26 88 79

Partly cloudy

Pohnpei

28

21 82 70

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Majuro

29

27 84 81

Party cloudy

Wake

31

28 88 82

Scattered thunderstorms possible

 

Have a marvelous Monday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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TYPHOON MERANTI TO IMPACT SOUTH EAST TAIWAN

Typhoon Meranti continues to strengthen Monday morning and shows no sign of letting up prior to landfall Wednesday likely in South Eastern Taiwan.

 

JTWC Forecast

According to the JTWC the storm is now a Category 3 equivalent on the saffir simpson scale and is expected to intensify further up to a “super typhoon” intensity.  Warm sea surface temperatures, ample moisture being fed  in to it from the monsoon and being somewhat removed from shear which is mostly located in a stationary front to the north should allow the storm to reach that max intensity.

Meranti is expected to make landfall early Wednesday morning in south eastern Taiwan. Max winds at landfall could be topping 250kph. 

The storm is actually very reminiscent of Typhoon Nepartak which slammed in to south eastern Taiwan earlier in July leaving three dead there and another 83 dead in South Eastern China. (ABOVE VIDEO FROM TYPHOON NEPARTAK)

rainfall

Most of the casualties from the storm were due to excessive amounts of rainfall which is a common problem when discussing eastern Taiwan and the impact from Tropical Systems.  This is a direct result of the peaks that run across the spine of the island that spike up to 3,000 meters high with the highest being 3,952 meters. Mountains so steep and so close to the ocean act as a wall squeezing out any potential moisture with these tropical systems and often amounting in incredible rain totals much higher than what numerical models predict.

rainfall

 

Hong Kong should stay south and west of the storms track but the city is still in the cone of error and should watch it closely.