Daily weather brief – Monday, September 12, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 12 SEP

NORTH

A cooler, autumnal air mass has settled over much of the north region today as signs of the change of seasons digs in. A stalled frontal system is draped across eastern Asia, from Japan westward over northern China. Clouds and showers are likely along this frontal boundary as deep moisture interacts with the instability near the front. All locations in the north will see a comfortable afternoon, with highs topping out below 30C (86F) region-wide.

CENTRAL

Tropical troubles loom on the horizon later this week in the central region, as Typhoon 1614/14W MERANTI, also named “Ferdie” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, makes its way towards Taiwan later this week. I’ll have more on this system in the ‘tropics’ section of this report. Elsewhere across the region, plentiful moisture will interact with the intense daytime heating to squeeze out showers and thunderstorms across much of the region. Brief heavy rain, localized flooding, and a risk of landslides are possible, especially in the higher terrain.

SOUTH

Deep tropical moisture is in place across the south region, with an area designated as a tropical depression by J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency) and listed as 91W INVEST by J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) stirring things up in the South China Sea east of Vietnam. This system will remain weak as it moves slowly westward into southeast Asia over the next couple of days, however, the circulation will pull in lots of moisture over southern Vietnam, Cambodia, and Thailand. The remainder of the region will also see a good chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms at the peak of daytime heating.

TROPICS

Following a relative two-week lull in activity, the tropics are once again blowing up, with several systems to keep an eye on.

TAAG, 12 SEP

Typhoon 1614/14W MERANTI, also named “Ferdie” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, has exploded overnight, reaching Super-typhoon status as it tracks to the west-northwest. Current forecasts take this system into the Luzon Strait and into southern Taiwan later this week. For a more detailed look at MERANTI, please see the full report by WPWx Meteorologist Robert Speta.

16W full, 12 SEP

Tropical depression 17W is far to the north, east of Japan. J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) as issued its final advisory on this system.

17W full, 12 SEP

Tropical depression 18W popped up overnight near Guam an current forecasts strengthen this system and take it to the NW near the Ryukyu Islands later this week.

18W full, 12 SEP

Tropical depression “b”, as listed by J.M.A, designated as 91W INVEST by J.T.W.C. is situated to the east of Vietnam as it slowly gathers strength. This system will move into Southeast Asia before it has a chance to get very strong.

91W full, 12 SEP

Elsewhere across the tropics, scattered thunderstorms are on tap for most locations in the region as the deep moisture gets a lift from the hot afternoon sunshine.

Have a marvelous Monday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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