Daily weather brief – Wednesday, September 14, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 14 SEP

NORTH

A stalled frontal system stretching from Japan back to the southwest over eastern China is a focus for showers and thunderstorms as tropical moisture slams up against the cool air boundary. Much of the region will see some precipitation, with areas in the extreme north being the exception. The future spells out lots of conflicting weather with tropical cyclones and an autumnal surge moving down in the latter part of the week that will make things quite interesting over the north region as we approach the weekend.

CENTRAL

The central region is dealing with a powerful typhoon that is entering the region near Taiwan. Super Typhoon MERANTI, also named “Ferdie” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, swept through the Luzon Strait overnight bringing a serving of hell to the small Batanes Island group. The system is forecast to remain over open water and track just south of Taiwan, before turning to the northwest and moving into eastern China by week’s end. Please check the ‘tropics’ section of this report for more details on this historic storm. Elsewhere across the central region, plentiful moisture will provide fuel for the intense afternoon sun to lift up and generate showers and thunderstorms, especially over Taiwan and most of southern China and northern Indochina.

SOUTH

Super Typhoon MERANTI, also named “Ferdie” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, traveled through the Luzon Strait overnight, slamming Ibayat Island in the small Batanes Island group of the Philippines. This system will move out of the region and up into eastern China over the next few days. The remnants of tropical storm 19W RAI continue to wash out over the Southeast Asian peninsula, dumping heavy rainfall over Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and northern Thailand. Across the rest of the region, deep tropical moisture is entrenched, aiding in the development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms at the peak of daytime heating.

TROPICS

With two named systems, and two areas of investigation, we find the tropics characteristically busy for this time of year, after a rather quiet start to the season.

TAAG, 14 SEP

Super typhoon 16W MERANTI, also named “Ferdie” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, traveled through the Luzon Strait overnight, crossing directly over Ibayat Island in the small Batanes Island group of the Philippines. The facts are debatable as far as strength of this system, but official agencies are placing the system above HAIYAN (Yolanda) in terms of strength, as least as far as barometric pressure is concerned, with an estimated reading of 890hPa posted overnight. The system acquired a solid annular form yesterday evening, and has been impressive to watch on satellite. The system is expected to continue tracking to the west-northwest, just south of Taiwan, before turning to the northwest into eastern China later this week.

16W full, 14 SEP

Tropical storm 18W MALAKAS, also named “Gener” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, continues to struggle just a bit in the shear from MERANTI’s outflow. Forecasts strengthen this system as it passes through the zone of the “Philippine Sea Effect”, tracking more to the north than MERANTI has, with the Ryukyu Islands being the first target, and then a quick poleward turn is suggested, taking the system into southern Japan this weekend.

18W full, 14 SEP

Two other areas of disturbed weather have been designated by the U.S.A.’s N.R.L. (Naval Research Laboratory) and the J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) in the forms of 93W and 94W INVESTS. 94W is quite far to the south, and development will be slow. 94W is quite a bit farther north, but development is not expected at this time.

INVEST full, 14 SEP

The remainder of the tropics will see a fair chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as tropical moisture and energy get stirred up by the warm afternoon sun.

Have a wacky Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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