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Daily weather brief – Wednesday, September 14, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 14 SEP

NWPAC outlook, 14 SEP

NORTH

A stalled frontal system stretching from Japan back to the southwest over eastern China is a focus for showers and thunderstorms as tropical moisture slams up against the cool air boundary. Much of the region will see some precipitation, with areas in the extreme north being the exception. The future spells out lots of conflicting weather with tropical cyclones and an autumnal surge moving down in the latter part of the week that will make things quite interesting over the north region as we approach the weekend.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

21

6 70 43

Mostly fair

Vladivostok

20

16 68 61

Scattered showers likely

Beijing

31

18 88 64

Mostly fair

Seoul

28

18 82 64

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Tokyo

26

23 79 73

Periods of rain

Xi’an

28

18 82 64

Scattered showers likely

Shanghai

25

24 77 75

Periods of rain

 

CENTRAL

The central region is dealing with a powerful typhoon that is entering the region near Taiwan. Super Typhoon MERANTI, also named “Ferdie” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, swept through the Luzon Strait overnight bringing a serving of hell to the small Batanes Island group. The system is forecast to remain over open water and track just south of Taiwan, before turning to the northwest and moving into eastern China by week’s end. Please check the ‘tropics’ section of this report for more details on this historic storm. Elsewhere across the central region, plentiful moisture will provide fuel for the intense afternoon sun to lift up and generate showers and thunderstorms, especially over Taiwan and most of southern China and northern Indochina.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

24

14 75 57

Scattered showers likely

Hong Kong

32

27 90 81

Partly cloudy

Taipei

28

26 82 79

Periods of rain

Naha

31

27 88 81

Partly cloudy

Hanoi

32

25 90 77

Thunderstorms likely

 

SOUTH

Super Typhoon MERANTI, also named “Ferdie” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, traveled through the Luzon Strait overnight, slamming Ibayat Island in the small Batanes Island group of the Philippines. This system will move out of the region and up into eastern China over the next few days. The remnants of tropical storm 19W RAI continue to wash out over the Southeast Asian peninsula, dumping heavy rainfall over Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos, and northern Thailand. Across the rest of the region, deep tropical moisture is entrenched, aiding in the development of afternoon showers and thunderstorms at the peak of daytime heating.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

31

24 88 75

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

32

25 90 77

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

30

26 86 79

Thunderstorms likely

Davao City

32

24 90 75

Thunderstorms likely

Brunei

32

24 90 75

Mostly cloudy

Singapore

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS

With two named systems, and two areas of investigation, we find the tropics characteristically busy for this time of year, after a rather quiet start to the season.

TAAG, 14 SEP

TAAG, 14 SEP

Super typhoon 16W MERANTI, also named “Ferdie” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, traveled through the Luzon Strait overnight, crossing directly over Ibayat Island in the small Batanes Island group of the Philippines. The facts are debatable as far as strength of this system, but official agencies are placing the system above HAIYAN (Yolanda) in terms of strength, as least as far as barometric pressure is concerned, with an estimated reading of 890hPa posted overnight. The system acquired a solid annular form yesterday evening, and has been impressive to watch on satellite. The system is expected to continue tracking to the west-northwest, just south of Taiwan, before turning to the northwest into eastern China later this week.

16W full, 14 SEP

16W full, 14 SEP

Tropical storm 18W MALAKAS, also named “Gener” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, continues to struggle just a bit in the shear from MERANTI’s outflow. Forecasts strengthen this system as it passes through the zone of the “Philippine Sea Effect”, tracking more to the north than MERANTI has, with the Ryukyu Islands being the first target, and then a quick poleward turn is suggested, taking the system into southern Japan this weekend.

18W full, 14 SEP

18W full, 14 SEP

Two other areas of disturbed weather have been designated by the U.S.A.’s N.R.L. (Naval Research Laboratory) and the J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) in the forms of 93W and 94W INVESTS. 94W is quite far to the south, and development will be slow. 94W is quite a bit farther north, but development is not expected at this time.

INVEST full, 14 SEP

INVEST full, 14 SEP

The remainder of the tropics will see a fair chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon as tropical moisture and energy get stirred up by the warm afternoon sun.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms likely

Yap

31

26 88 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Palau

28

27 82 81

Thunderstorms possible

Chuuk

31

27 88 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

32

24 90 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Majuro

29

28 84 82

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Wake

31

27 88 81

Mostly fair

 

Have a wacky Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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