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Archive | September 15, 2016

Typhoon Malakas Threatens Western Japan and Taiwan (Friday Update)

September 15, 2016 by robertspeta 0 Comments

On the heels of the deadly record breaking Typhoon Meranti our attention is quickly shifting to Malakas another Typhoon which threatens Taiwan and Western Japan this coming weekend in to early next week.

This storm has been gradually strengthening for several days now reaching a current intensity equivalent of a Cat 2 -3 Hurricane in the Atlantic.

malakas

Sea surface temperatures where the storm is located is about 1-3 degrees above average despite upwelling created by Meranti, furthermore it has ample exhaust aloft allowing the “typhoon machine” to operate rather smoothly as the storm nears Taiwan, thus expect the storm to intensify until it rounds the ridge access near the southern Islands of Japan.

IR SAT

Who Will Be Impacted?

Depending on the speed of a passing trough out of eastern china the storm could skirt the coast of Taiwan or run right over Miyako Jima just to the east. Both locations should be ready for typhoon strength winds and heavy rains, but either way the southern islands of Japan including Ishigaki and Miyako will stay on the right side of the storm, the more dangerous side and thus the higher winds while Taiwan will mainly see a rainfall threat across the mountains of the island.

Check latest Satellite Imagery Here

The north east coast of Taiwan will be the hardest hit on the island, wind gust here could get up to 100kts Saturday afternoon in to Sunday morning, this includes Yilan county in the countries North East.

The mountains east of Yilan are prone to landslides and also could see up to 300-400mm of rain.

Expect delays at Taipei for any travelers heading through the hub this coming weekend.

If I was a storm chaser at this time I would want to be in Ishigaki or Miyako Jima as those two areas will take a direct hit from this storm.

Sunday and Okinawa?

It’s a close call, Tropical Storm Strength winds are probable though as Meranti passes north of the island. Depending on its timing around the sub-tropical ridge though will determined how exactly close it could get to Okinawa.

Remember the pressure gradient in typhoons is compact and not very large, thus is why winds are so high in the storms. S the distance of a mere 50-100km could make the difference between low end tropical storm conditions or Cat 3 strength winds and is why continue to check in with JMA or for the military in Okinawa JTWC for the latest tracks on this storm.

Early Typhoon prep is always smart though, and at this time for residents of Okinawa it sounds like a broken record repeated over and over stating to secure lawn furniture and tie down light objects that easily can fly. (Trampolines) But every storm some sort of thing goes…

Kyushu and Western Japan will see rainfall from Meranti as it gets wrapped up with the fall rainy season from “akisame” early next week. Still will bring breezy conditions further north but the rain will be a bigger threat as the storm becomes sub-tropical.

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Daily weather brief – Thursday, September 15, 2016

September 15, 2016 by voxianguy 0 Comments

NWPAC outlook, 15 SEP

NORTH

Typhoon 16W MERANTI made landfall in Fujian province of China overnight as a very strong storm system, bringing all the associated hazards of a violent tropical system. The storm will continue to move inland while curving to the north and northeast, bringing heavy rain to the entire eastern north region through Saturday. We’re also keeping a wary eye on Typhoon 18W MALAKAS, also named “Gener” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, as forecasts show it to impact eastern portions of the region this weekend. Cooler air is starting to slowly press to the south as another moderate surge of Siberian air makes its way in. This surge will push southward over the next several days, cooling temperatures across much of the region.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Ulaanbaatar	17	6	63	43	Partly cloudy
Vladivostok	21	17	70	63	Partly cloudy
Beijing	32	18	90	64	Mostly fair
Seoul	29	19	84	66	Partly cloudy
Tokyo	28	22	82	72	Scattered showers likely
Xi’an	28	18	82	64	Partly cloudy
Shanghai	26	24	79	75	Periods of rain

CENTRAL

MERANTI will first pass through the coastal provinces of China in the central region as it moves inland and to the north. Flooding rainfall, dangerous winds, and possible landslides will affect much of the region today and tomorrow as the system moves north. Typhoon 18 MALAKAS is also expected to impact the offshore locales of the central region over the weekend, tracking near Okinawa. Rain will fall across much of the central region today with the introduction of more tropical moisture, with drier conditions over Okinawa and in the south over northern Indochina.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Kunming	22	14	72	57	Thunderstorms likely
Hong Kong	31	27	88	81	Scattered thunderstorms likely
Taipei	32	26	90	79	Scattered showers likely
Naha	31	27	88	81	Partly cloudy
Hanoi	33	26	91	79	Partly cloudy

SOUTH

Remnants of TS19W RAI have just about rained themselves out over Southeast Asia, and have been dragged back out into the South China Sea. Some of this moisture is being pulled over the northern Philippines as TY MERANTI moves into southeast China. Most of the south region will see a chance for showers and thunderstorms today as the copious moisture gets a lift from the warm afternoon sun.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Siem Reap	33	25	91	77	Scattered thunderstorms likely
Ho Chi Minh	32	25	90	77	Thunderstorms likely
Manila	31	26	88	79	Scattered thunderstorms likely
Davao City	32	24	90	75	Scattered thunderstorms likely
Brunei	33	24	91	75	Partly cloudy
Singapore	31	26	88	79	Thunderstorms likely

TROPICS

As Typhoon 16W MERANTI moves into southeastern China, we turn our attention back out in the Philippines Sea where Typhoon 18W MALAKAS, also named “Gener” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, gets better organized, and two weak areas of investigation flail about.

TAAG, 15 SEP

Historic and record-setting Typhoon 16W MERANTI is nearing the end of the line as it moves into southeastern China, bringing an onslaught of stormy weather to that area. Although post-storm analysis will clear up the figures, many believe this storm was, at one point, on par with HAIYAN of 2013. MERANTI will continue to degrade and dissipate over China during the next 48 hours.

16W full, 15 SEP

Attention is now focused on the ever-growing Typhoon 18W MALAKAS, also named “Gener” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, as it enters what has historically been the ‘hot spot’ for tropical cyclone development in the northern Philippine Sea. Current forecasts are showing a general consensus, taking the system north of MERANTI’s track, and into the southern Ryukyu Islands later this week and weekend.

18W full, 15 SEP

Two area of investigation remain on watch out in the Pacific with 93W INVEST and 94W INVEST. Computer forecast models are still backing off of any significant development of either system, as both are expected to dissipate within the next few days.

INVEST full, 15 SEP

Elsewhere across the tropics, it will be a warm and humid day as just about everyone sees a decent chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

City	High/Low C		High/Low F		Conditions
Guam	31	27	88	81	Scattered thunderstorms likely
Yap	31	26	88	79	Thunderstorms likely
Palau	29	27	84	81	Scattered thunderstorms likely
Chuuk	30	26	86	79	Scattered thunderstorms possible
Pohnpei	27	21	81	70	Thunderstorms possible
Majuro	29	27	84	81	Thunderstorms possible
Wake	30	27	86	81	Mostly fair

Have a thrilling Thursday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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