
NWPAC outlook, 15 SEP
NORTH
Typhoon 16W MERANTI made landfall in Fujian province of China overnight as a very strong storm system, bringing all the associated hazards of a violent tropical system. The storm will continue to move inland while curving to the north and northeast, bringing heavy rain to the entire eastern north region through Saturday. We’re also keeping a wary eye on Typhoon 18W MALAKAS, also named “Gener” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, as forecasts show it to impact eastern portions of the region this weekend. Cooler air is starting to slowly press to the south as another moderate surge of Siberian air makes its way in. This surge will push southward over the next several days, cooling temperatures across much of the region.
City |
High/Low
C
|
High/Low
F |
Conditions
|
Ulaanbaatar |
17
|
6 |
63 |
43 |
Partly cloudy
|
Vladivostok |
21
|
17 |
70 |
63 |
Partly cloudy
|
Beijing |
32
|
18 |
90 |
64 |
Mostly fair
|
Seoul |
29
|
19 |
84 |
66 |
Partly cloudy
|
Tokyo |
28
|
22 |
82 |
72 |
Scattered showers likely
|
Xi’an |
28
|
18 |
82 |
64 |
Partly cloudy
|
Shanghai |
26
|
24 |
79 |
75 |
Periods of rain
|
CENTRAL
MERANTI will first pass through the coastal provinces of China in the central region as it moves inland and to the north. Flooding rainfall, dangerous winds, and possible landslides will affect much of the region today and tomorrow as the system moves north. Typhoon 18 MALAKAS is also expected to impact the offshore locales of the central region over the weekend, tracking near Okinawa. Rain will fall across much of the central region today with the introduction of more tropical moisture, with drier conditions over Okinawa and in the south over northern Indochina.
City |
High/Low
C
|
High/Low
F |
Conditions
|
Kunming |
22
|
14 |
72 |
57 |
Thunderstorms likely
|
Hong Kong |
31
|
27 |
88 |
81 |
Scattered thunderstorms likely
|
Taipei |
32
|
26 |
90 |
79 |
Scattered showers likely
|
Naha |
31
|
27 |
88 |
81 |
Partly cloudy
|
Hanoi |
33
|
26 |
91 |
79 |
Partly cloudy
|
SOUTH
Remnants of TS19W RAI have just about rained themselves out over Southeast Asia, and have been dragged back out into the South China Sea. Some of this moisture is being pulled over the northern Philippines as TY MERANTI moves into southeast China. Most of the south region will see a chance for showers and thunderstorms today as the copious moisture gets a lift from the warm afternoon sun.
City |
High/Low
C
|
High/Low
F |
Conditions
|
Siem Reap |
33
|
25 |
91 |
77 |
Scattered thunderstorms likely
|
Ho Chi Minh |
32
|
25 |
90 |
77 |
Thunderstorms likely
|
Manila |
31
|
26 |
88 |
79 |
Scattered thunderstorms likely
|
Davao City |
32
|
24 |
90 |
75 |
Scattered thunderstorms likely
|
Brunei |
33
|
24 |
91 |
75 |
Partly cloudy
|
Singapore |
31
|
26 |
88 |
79 |
Thunderstorms likely
|
TROPICS
As Typhoon 16W MERANTI moves into southeastern China, we turn our attention back out in the Philippines Sea where Typhoon 18W MALAKAS, also named “Gener” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, gets better organized, and two weak areas of investigation flail about.

TAAG, 15 SEP
Historic and record-setting Typhoon 16W MERANTI is nearing the end of the line as it moves into southeastern China, bringing an onslaught of stormy weather to that area. Although post-storm analysis will clear up the figures, many believe this storm was, at one point, on par with HAIYAN of 2013. MERANTI will continue to degrade and dissipate over China during the next 48 hours.

16W full, 15 SEP
Attention is now focused on the ever-growing Typhoon 18W MALAKAS, also named “Gener” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, as it enters what has historically been the ‘hot spot’ for tropical cyclone development in the northern Philippine Sea. Current forecasts are showing a general consensus, taking the system north of MERANTI’s track, and into the southern Ryukyu Islands later this week and weekend.

18W full, 15 SEP
Two area of investigation remain on watch out in the Pacific with 93W INVEST and 94W INVEST. Computer forecast models are still backing off of any significant development of either system, as both are expected to dissipate within the next few days.

INVEST full, 15 SEP
Elsewhere across the tropics, it will be a warm and humid day as just about everyone sees a decent chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.
City |
High/Low
C
|
High/Low
F |
Conditions
|
Guam |
31
|
27 |
88 |
81 |
Scattered thunderstorms likely
|
Yap |
31
|
26 |
88 |
79 |
Thunderstorms likely
|
Palau |
29
|
27 |
84 |
81 |
Scattered thunderstorms likely
|
Chuuk |
30
|
26 |
86 |
79 |
Scattered thunderstorms possible
|
Pohnpei |
27
|
21 |
81 |
70 |
Thunderstorms possible
|
Majuro |
29
|
27 |
84 |
81 |
Thunderstorms possible
|
Wake |
30
|
27 |
86 |
81 |
Mostly fair
|
Have a thrilling Thursday!
Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA
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