Weekend weather brief – September 17/18, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 17/18 SEP

NORTH

Cooler air is starting to settle into portions of the north region as the signs of seasonal change continue to grow. There are also hints of a much stronger surge coming through in the next 10 days, which will definitely create an autumnal feel for most of the region. Residents of southern Japan should have their attention focused on the development of Typhoon 18W MALAKAS, as forecasts show the system rolling through Kyushu, Shikoku, and southern Honshu to start the upcoming work week. For this weekend, most locations will see a mixed bag of weather as frontal systems stall out over the region, while Japan will enter a period of very wet weather that will dump copious rainfall over the southern half of the nation through next week.

CENTRAL

Typhoon 18W MALAKAS is passing to the east of Taiwan today, and will continue to make a turn to the northeast this weekend, targeting southern Japan. Periods of heavy rain will affect Taiwan and the Ryukyu Islands through the weekend as the systems passes through. Thunderstorms are likely over the central highlands of China as well, while the remainder of the region can look forward to a few scattered showers and plenty of warm sunshine.

SOUTH

Residents of the south region will see a fairly typical weather pattern dominate the region as deep tropical moisture stays locked in, providing fuel for the afternoon sun to lift up showers and thunderstorms. Rainfall will be most plentiful over Indochina, Malaysia, Singapore, and the northern Philippines, while everyone else will see scattered shower activity through the weekend.

TROPICS

The tropics are rather quiet, officially speaking, with Typhoon 18W MALAKAS making a turn for southern japan, and weakly-organized 94W INVEST holding on for dear life.

TAAG, 17 SEP

Typhoon 18W MALAKAS is passing by Taiwan and through the Ryukyu Islands this weekend as it continues to turn towards southern Japan. Although the system is not as powerful as the previous storm, it’s still quite a formidable system to deal with. Forecasts take the system into southern Japan early next week, and out of the picture by mid-week. However, due to an intrusion of continental air and an associated stalled cold front over the archipelago, rainfall will be VERY heavy, especially over southern and central Honshu as a result of MALAKAS’ interaction with the frontal boundary.

18W full, 17 SEP

94W INVEST is hanging on for all it’s worth as it tracks slowly to the north-northwest and away from the Mariana Islands. Forecast models are still not doing much with this system, showing dissipation within the next day or so.

94W, 17 SEP

The rest of the region will see the usual run of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, as copious moisture and intense sunshine team up to squeeze out a few pockets of rainfall in spots.

Have a wonderful weekend!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, NRL, JMA, JTWC

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