Daily weather brief – Tuesday, September 20, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 20 SEP

NORTH

Typhoon MALAKAS is losing its punch as it takes aim on southern Honshu and the Kanto plain today. After briefly getting its act together yesterday, strong wind shear and cooler SST’s (Sea-Surface Temperatures) are beating the system down and kicking of its transition to an extra-tropical system, which should take place rather quickly. In the meantime, southern and central Japan will see a pretty crappy day today (yes, “crappy” is now a meteorological term) with widespread rain fall and gusty winds, not to mention high waves on the shores of prefectures in eastern Kyushu and southeastern Honshu. Elsewhere in the north region, temperatures reflect the decreasing sun angle, and hints of a new cool surge coming down from Siberia later this week are starting to show up on forecast models. Most locations across the region will see lots of sunshine and pleasantly warm autumn temperatures this afternoon.

CENTRAL

Moisture moving in from the west will combine with an already moist air mass over the continental central region, and slightly cooler air at the surface, helping provide extra fuel for shower and thunderstorm generation this afternoon. Offshore locales will see rain chances enhanced by lingering moisture from 18W MALAKAS, which is exiting the region to the northeast. Most rainfall will be light and spotty, but just about everyone could see some precipitation today. The lone exception is northern Indochina and the southern Chinese lowlands, where partly cloudy skies will dominate.

SOUTH

The south region continues to bathe in deep tropical moisture today, with weak pulses of energy scattered throughout the region. Most locations will see a good chance for showers and thunderstorms, as the moisture gets a lift from the intense afternoon sun. Precipitation will be more likely to fall over portions of Indochina and the northern Philippines; however, everyone stands a decent chance of picking up some rainfall by day’s end.

TROPICS

As Typhoon MALAKAS makes a curtain call over Japan during the next 48 hours, we find ourselves watching a new system with potential for development.

TAAG, 20 SEP

Typhoon 18W MALAKAS is rolling through southern Japan today after making landfall in southern Kyushu last evening. The system is quickly losing its core due to land interaction, high VWS (Vertical Wind Shear) and cooler SST’s (Sea-Surface Temperatures). The system is expected to get caught up in the baroclinic zone and continue to transition into an extra-tropical system and it speeds up and exits the region by week’s end.

18W full, 20 SEP

Another area of disturbed weather has popped up east of Guam in the form of 96W INVEST. Satellite loops show good thunderstorm development and a possible LLCC (Low-Level Circulation Center) developing in this system, and forecast models do show development of 96W in the coming days. We’ll keep a close eye on it for you.

96W INVEST, 20 SEP

Elsewhere across the tropics, the usual run of weak energy impulses will interact with deep moisture across the region to bring about a chance of showers and thunderstorms for most locations.

Have a tubular Tuesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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