September 21, 2016 
NWPAC outlook, 21 SEP
NORTH
The remnants of 18W MALAKAS continue to degrade as it moves offshore of Japan to the northeast. The storm dumped more than 500mm of rain over some portions of the country, leaving behind vast swaths of flooding. Japan should see much-improved weather today as things start to dry out just a bit. Elsewhere across the north region, warm air advection ahead of a new cool air surge from Siberia will help raise temperatures just a bit across Mongolia and northern China today. The new surge won’t get too far south, but it will cool things off significantly over the northernmost reaches of the region at the end of the week. Most locations in the region will see lots of sunshine today, with a few clouds hanging on in eastern China, and some showers popping up in Mongolia ahead of the new surge.
| City |
High/Low C |
High/Low
F |
Conditions | ||
| Ulaanbaatar | 21 | 4 | 70 | 39 | Scattered showers likely |
| Vladivostok | 21 | 16 | 70 | 61 | Mostly fair |
| Beijing | 25 | 14 | 77 | 57 | Partly cloudy |
| Seoul | 25 | 15 | 77 | 59 | Partly cloudy |
| Tokyo | 24 | 19 | 75 | 66 | Partly cloudy |
| Xi’an | 28 | 15 | 82 | 59 | Mostly fair |
| Shanghai | 26 | 20 | 79 | 68 | Mostly cloudy |
CENTRAL
The central region will see a mixed bag of weather today as a stalled frontal system finally washes out overhead, aided by a recent infusion of tropical moisture from 18W MALAKAS, which blew through the region last weekend. Offshore locations will see a better chance for clouds and rainfall, as well as the highlands of south-central China. Everyone else will see a nice, warm, early autumn day.
| City |
High/Low C |
High/Low
F |
Conditions | ||
| Kunming | 18 | 11 | 64 | 52 | Mostly cloudy |
| Hong Kong | 31 | 25 | 88 | 77 | Partly cloudy |
| Taipei | 28 | 24 | 82 | 75 | Scattered showers likely |
| Naha | 29 | 26 | 84 | 79 | Mostly cloudy |
| Hanoi | 32 | 24 | 82 | 75 | Mostly fair |
SOUTH
Tropical moisture and warm sunshine will help showers and thunderstorms develop over much of the south region today. Rainfall is more likely over Indochina and the northern Philippines, while the southern Philippines will get a bit of a break today, and Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, and Indonesia will see just scattered activity.
| City |
High/Low C |
High/Low
F |
Conditions |
||
| Siem Reap |
31 |
24 | 88 | 75 |
Thunderstorms likely |
| Ho Chi Minh |
32 |
24 | 90 | 75 |
Thunderstorms likely |
| Manila |
32 |
26 | 90 | 79 |
Thunderstorms likely |
| Davao City |
32 |
24 | 90 | 75 |
Partly cloudy |
| Brunei |
32 |
24 | 91 | 75 |
Scattered thunderstorms likely |
| Singapore |
32 |
25 | 90 | 77 |
Scattered thunderstorms likely |
TROPICS
As 18W MALAKAS falls completely apart east of Japan, all eye turn to our developing system southeast of Guam, 96W INVEST.
TAAG, 21 SEP
I really didn’t want to talk about 18W MALAKAS on this report, but technically it is still on the books. MALAKAS dumped insane amounts of rainfall over parts of Japan over the past 48 hours, with locations reporting 400mm and even 500mm+!! Fortunately, MALAKAS has almost completely unraveled, and will get caught up in the jet stream and shipped away from the archipelago quickly.
18W, 21 SEP
Attention is turned to our next system, 96W INVEST. The J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) has upgraded this disturbance’s 24-hour formation potential to “medium” as the low-level structure improves, and atmospheric conditions remain favorable. Current forecast models are in pretty close alignment with the strength and track estimates, showing a typhoon-strength system by this weekend, with a track taking it through the Luzon Strait into, or near, Taiwan next week.
96W INVEST, 21 SEP
The remainder of the tropics will see the usual chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, as the warm sunshine give the ample moisture a lift, with Palau, Pohnpei, and Wake Islands being the lone exceptions.
| City |
High/Low C |
High/Low
F |
Conditions |
||
| Guam |
31 |
26 | 88 | 79 |
Scattered thunderstorms likely |
| Yap |
32 |
26 | 90 | 79 |
Scattered thunderstorms likely |
| Palau |
30 |
27 | 86 | 81 |
Partly cloudy |
| Chuuk |
30 |
26 | 86 | 79 |
Scattered thunderstorms likely |
| Pohnpei |
30 |
21 | 86 | 70 |
Partly cloudy |
| Majuro |
28 |
27 | 82 | 81 |
Thunderstorms likely |
| Wake |
31 |
27 | 88 | 81 |
Mostly fair |
Have a wacky Wednesday!
Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA
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