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Daily weather brief – Wednesday, September 21, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 21 SEP

NWPAC outlook, 21 SEP

NORTH

The remnants of 18W MALAKAS continue to degrade as it moves offshore of Japan to the northeast. The storm dumped more than 500mm of rain over some portions of the country, leaving behind vast swaths of flooding. Japan should see much-improved weather today as things start to dry out just a bit. Elsewhere across the north region, warm air advection ahead of a new cool air surge from Siberia will help raise temperatures just a bit across Mongolia and northern China today. The new surge won’t get too far south, but it will cool things off significantly over the northernmost reaches of the region at the end of the week. Most locations in the region will see lots of sunshine today, with a few clouds hanging on in eastern China, and some showers popping up in Mongolia ahead of the new surge.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Ulaanbaatar 21 4 70 39 Scattered showers likely
Vladivostok 21 16 70 61 Mostly fair
Beijing 25 14 77 57 Partly cloudy
Seoul 25 15 77 59 Partly cloudy
Tokyo 24 19 75 66 Partly cloudy
Xi’an 28 15 82 59 Mostly fair
Shanghai 26 20 79 68 Mostly cloudy

 

CENTRAL

The central region will see a mixed bag of weather today as a stalled frontal system finally washes out overhead, aided by a recent infusion of tropical moisture from 18W MALAKAS, which blew through the region last weekend. Offshore locations will see a better chance for clouds and rainfall, as well as the highlands of south-central China. Everyone else will see a nice, warm, early autumn day.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Kunming 18 11 64 52 Mostly cloudy
Hong Kong 31 25 88 77 Partly cloudy
Taipei 28 24 82 75 Scattered showers likely
Naha 29 26 84 79 Mostly cloudy
Hanoi 32 24 82 75 Mostly fair

 

SOUTH

Tropical moisture and warm sunshine will help showers and thunderstorms develop over much of the south region today. Rainfall is more likely over Indochina and the northern Philippines, while the southern Philippines will get a bit of a break today, and Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, and Indonesia will see just scattered activity.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

31

24 88 75

Thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

32

24 90 75

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

32

26 90 79

Thunderstorms likely

Davao City

32

24 90 75

Partly cloudy

Brunei

32

24 91 75

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Singapore

32

25 90 77

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS

As 18W MALAKAS falls completely apart east of Japan, all eye turn to our developing system southeast of Guam, 96W INVEST.

TAAG, 21 SEP

TAAG, 21 SEP

I really didn’t want to talk about 18W MALAKAS on this report, but technically it is still on the books. MALAKAS dumped insane amounts of rainfall over parts of Japan over the past 48 hours, with locations reporting 400mm and even 500mm+!! Fortunately, MALAKAS has almost completely unraveled, and will get caught up in the jet stream and shipped away from the archipelago quickly.

18W, 21 SEP

18W, 21 SEP

Attention is turned to our next system, 96W INVEST. The J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) has upgraded this disturbance’s 24-hour formation potential to “medium” as the low-level structure improves, and atmospheric conditions remain favorable. Current forecast models are in pretty close alignment with the strength and track estimates, showing a typhoon-strength system by this weekend, with a track taking it through the Luzon Strait into, or near, Taiwan next week.

96W INVEST, 21 SEP

96W INVEST, 21 SEP

The remainder of the tropics will see the usual chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, as the warm sunshine give the ample moisture a lift, with Palau, Pohnpei, and Wake Islands being the lone exceptions.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

31

26 88 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Yap

32

26 90 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Palau

30

27 86 81

Partly cloudy

Chuuk

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Pohnpei

30

21 86 70

Partly cloudy

Majuro

28

27 82 81

Thunderstorms likely

Wake

31

27 88 81

Mostly fair

 

Have a wacky Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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