Could we have our next named storm “Megi” this coming weekend in the western pacific? The answer to that question is a likely yes, how strong will it get and where exactly it will go in the extended range is still up for debate.
For now this storm is still developing near Guam spurring the Guam NWS to issue a “Special Weather Statement” warning of heavy rainfall Friday with wind gust possible up to 45mph ( 72kph)
The tropical storm expected to track west in to the weekend leaving Guam with improving conditions while our attention starts to focus more to the west. Current numerical guidance shows a high chance of Taiwan taking a hit from a Tropical Storm or Typhoon early next week with a risk but a lesser risk of the southern Japanese islands or the Northern Philippines being impacted.
The overall back ground flow indications a good chance for Taiwan though at this time with a simialer setup as we seen with Meranti in place heading in to the weekend.
For now the previously mentioned areas should watch the storm very close keeping a keen eye on how it develops over the coming days.
That is anyones guess right now, numerical models are all over the place on this one with some showing a powerful typhoon while others keep it a weak cluster of clouds.
Key thing to note though is low shear and warming sea surface temperatures await this storm in the Philippine sea, this should spur along strengthening to a typhoon possibly by the start of next week. Time will tell on this one.