As we head in to October the Typhoon season has started move past its peak but its not over by a long shot. That is evident with our latest
tropical system Chaba now stirring up the oceans west of Guam this Friday.
Tropical Storm Chaba does not show the same signs of massive explosive intensification like we seen with Meranti or Megi, but it still has the potential to bring some rough weather at the start of the work week for the southern Japanese islands through Kyushu and Shikoku.
The storm is tracking north west along the western periphery of the sub-tropical ridge located over the Ogasawara islands. This ridge should keep in on this north westerly track heading through the weekend taking it close or right over Okinawa by Monday morning.
In fact based on Numerical and Agency guidance there is confidence that Okinawa will see some sort of impact from Chaba, the question is how much?
As is often the case with northerly tracking storms in late season the right side compared the left side of a typhoon could mean a dramatic difference, from winds topping 200kph to just barely tropical storm strength difference.
This is because of the forward motion of the storm and how dry air can often break down the left side of a storm. The graphic below gives you a quick idea.
So what this means is that if Chaba was to hit Okinawa just to the west it would mean a full blown typhoon on this southern island of Japan. Just to the right would result in a moderate storm and likely below typhoon strength winds.
Thus preparing for the storm is necessary, but do not be surprised if at the last moment the forecast and conditions change.
Beyond Okinawa the Amami islands, Kyushu, and Shikoku need to watch the storm closely as some models indicate at this time a major rain maker setting up mid-week for the area. This is something that is in the long range and could vary based on the forecast much like Okinawa. So keep checking back in for new updates and as always follow us on Facebook.