Archive | September, 2016

JAPAN WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK ; MORE SNOW EXPECTED

The 2015/2016 Winter Ski/Snowboard Season in Japan was well shy of a average year for the country famous for its deep snow packs. In fact it was some of the lowest snow totals in over a decade across many mountains of central Honshu.  BUT, for those who put up with the below than average snow be happy, this coming winter might be the flip side of the proverbial snow coin. 

THE FORECAST

JMA at this time along with overall guidance shows average to slightly above average snow total for the sea of Japan coastline from Hokkaido through Hokoriku with well above average south west through Kyushu.  This would be far more snow than Japan seen in 2016-2016.

jma-outlook

This was a result of the general weather pattern being skewed to produce more southerly storms that tend to track along the pacific coastline and are much warmer than the classic and infamous sea effect snow patterns Japan often gets during December through March which are a result of cold air spilling in across the sea of Japan picking up moisture and dumping across the mountains.

storm-tracks

The reason for this jarring in the air pattern? El Nino, In North America El Nino is a blessing for winter sports lovers with the season lasting well in to the spring this year and even the water deficit from years of drought some what recovering but in Japan the day in and day out of continued snowfall was no where to be found.

 

If we look back at historical records gathered from (Niigata Prefecture Records) over the past decade it is clear to see the change in sea surface temperatures based on La Nina and El Nino play a major role in the amount of snowfall ski resorts tend to get.

 

Total Snowfall Reports Per Year

Total Snowfall Reports Per Year

 

 

The Forecast

 

The climate prediction center in August stated the ENSO is in a neutral state leaning towards La Nina with it possible to come more in place this coming winter.  ( A Lina Watch was issued but since been dropped.)  Previous thoughts of it being a very strong La Nina are no longer in the picture but the atmospheric picture will be a far cry from last years Monster El Nino pattern that brought near record breaking snow shortages and the hottest year on record globally.

 

SST Anomalies

The graphic above shows the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies in the pacific with cooler than average near the South America Coast and above average off the coast of Japan. Overall though it is not cold enough for it to be a technical La Nina at this time.

 

(Not Sure what all the weather mumble jumble means? Check the video below)

 

What is the main weather event that brings snow to Japan? Sea effect snow.. what is sea effect snow? Check the video below.

MEGI THE 5TH STRONG TYPHOON TO SLAM TAIWAN IN 2 YEARS

Residents across Taiwan are bracing for yet another major typhoon to hit the island this year. Actually this could be the 5th “Super Typhoon” or “Violent Typhoon” to hit Taiwan in the past 2 years following Dujuan, Nepartak, Soudelor, and Meranti.

 

JTWC FORECAST TRACK

Megi is set to slam in to central Taiwan Tuesday morning as a “Very Strong” typhoon with winds 95G135kts in its inner eye wall. Hualien City looks to take some of the worst of the storm as of now but as we have seen in the past the mountains of Taiwan and the friction associated with them tend to move storms north or south as they near.

 

Of course the winds will be a major issue for the immediate coastal areas, downed trees, power lines and overturned cars are a real possibility. The good side of being hit so often by typhoons in Taiwan is that they have become accustomed to it and know how to prepare properly.

 

As always with land falling storms in Taiwan the rainfall will be the major problem. Easily up to 500-800mm of total precipitation will be possible on Tuesday as the storm slams in to the high mountains of the island.

 

Rainfall Threat in Taiwan on NHKWORLD

Rainfall Threat in Taiwan on NHKWORLD

South Eastern China including Guangdong and Fujian will also see a flood threat much like we seen with Nepartak and Meranti. Unlike Meranti which weakened and turned north, Megi will take a more westerly track lingering in the region while weakening and thus dropping most of its potential rainfall over the area increasing the threat of floods.

 

For those who want to follow some on the ground reports from in side the storm be sure to follow James Reynolds and Josh Morgerman on Twitter. Both are traveling across Taiwan to get ahead of this ever growing storm system.

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 Meanwhile for those in the northern Philippines the Batanes islands have been issued Signal Force Level 2 by PAGASA. Any other time this would be next to nothing for these islands but the province is still in recovery mode following Typhoon Meranti as it blew right over the islands last week.

Further south a slight enhanced monsoon is possible for Luzon but it should not be anything too extreme with some of the banding flaring up Monday Evening.

Western Japan including Ishigaki and Miyako will also see some winds gusting up to 126kph at times. Once again a area that is prone to typhoons and more than built to withstand Cat 1 winds. No evacuations likely on these islands.

MEGI INTENSIFIES NEARING TAIWAN

JTWC FCST TRACK

Severe Tropical Storm Megi continues to intensify this Saturday and likely being upgraded to a typhoon in the near future. This update we break down where its going and how strong it could get.

Daily weather brief – Friday, September 23, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 23 SEP

NWPAC outlook, 23 SEP

NORTH

Cooler air surges southward over the north region as the signs of autumn begin to show. The first rather dry frontal system has pushed through, clearing the way for the next cooler surge to move down through the weekend. The new front will bring some thundershowers to Mongolia and northern China, and the early front will linger over Japan today, offering up a good chance for showers across Honshu.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

17

6 63 43

Thunderstorms likely

Vladivostok

21

16 70 61

Mostly fair

Beijing

28

17 82 63

Mostly fair

Seoul

27

14 81 57

Mostly fair

Tokyo

23

21 73 70

Periods of rain

Xi’an

31

19 88 66

Mostly fair

Shanghai

26

21 79 70

Partly cloudy

 

CENTRAL

The early surge mentioned in the previous section has pushed all the way down into southern China, stretching back to the northeast and offshore towards Japan. The weak front will be a focal point for existing moisture, squeezing out some showers and thunderstorms across portions of northern Indochina, and offshore over Okinawa. Clouds will linger over the highlands south south-central China, while the remainder of the region enjoys partly cloudy skies.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

22

13 72 55

Mostly cloudy

Hong Kong

30

26 86 79

Partly cloudy

Taipei

29

24 84 75

Partly cloudy

Naha

28

26 82 79

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Hanoi

32

25 82 77

Scattered thunderstorms possible

 

SOUTH

The south region will see another day of numerous showers and thunderstorms as plentiful moisture gets a lift from the afternoon sun. Attention remains on tropical disturbance 96W INVEST as forecasts show it moving into the region this weekend.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

30

24 86 79

Thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

32

24 90 75

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

31

25 88 77

Thunderstorms likely

Davao City

32

24 90 75

Thunderstorms likely

Brunei

31

24 88 75

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Singapore

33

26 91 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS

Two strong disturbances are out in the tropics now; with newly designated Tropical Storm MEGI and 97W INVEST system.

TAAG, 23 SEP

TAAG, 23 SEP

96W INVEST has been declared Tropical Storm MEGI by J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency). This system has been a bit of an enigma over the past 24 hours. The J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) has re-issued the T.C.F.A. (Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert) having relocated the system to the NW, more in line with J.M.A.’s relocation earlier in the day. Computer forecast models are still showing a significant system forming and moving to the WNW in the general direction of the Luzon Strait and Taiwan next week.

20W full, 23 SEP

20W full, 23 SEP

97W INVEST was designated yesterday, far to the east in the eastern Micronesia/Marshall Islands vicinity. Computer forecast models do show development of this system next week and a general track to the NW towards southern Japan.

97W, 23 SEP

97W, 23 SEP

Elsewhere across the region, showers and thunderstorms will be plentiful as the deep tropical moisture gets heated up by the intense afternoon sunshine.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

31

27 88 81

Thunderstorms likely

Yap

30

26 86 79

Thunderstorms likely

Palau

29

27 84 81

Thunderstorms likely

Chuuk

31

26 88 79

Partly cloudy

Pohnpei

29

21 84 70

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Majuro

30

28 86 82

Mostly cloudy

Wake

30

27 86 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

Have a fabulous Friday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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