Archive | September, 2016

TYPHOON MEGI HITS TAIWAN ; LIVE UPDATES

 

IR SAT

Megi has slammed in to Taiwan leaving 4 dead and 160 injured.  The storm has brought damage across most of the island blocking roads, knocking out power and shutting off power supplies.

 

Today South Eastern China including Guangdong and Fujian will also see a flood threat much like we seen with Nepartak and Meranti. Unlike Meranti which weakened and turned north, Megi will take a more westerly track lingering in the region while weakening and thus dropping most of its potential rainfall over the area increasing the threat of floods.

 

Check Latest Satellite Imagery Here 

Check Radar Imagery Here

Latest Track from the WMO JMA

0700 WEDNESDAY TST

MEGI has made landfall in Fujian Province near Quanzhou.

landfall jma

0617 WEDNESDAY TST

MAX RAINFALL REPORTED since the storm begin was in Datong, Taiwan with 1106mm.

total-rainfall-27th-september

0600 WEDNESDAY TST

Death toll has climbed to 4 with over 160 injuries reported across Taiwan.  Max rainfall was reported in

0530UTC TUESDAY

Typhoon Megi has made landfall over Hualien City.

 

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0302UTC TUESDAY

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0132UTC TUESDAY

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2245UTC TUESDAY 

Outer rain bands and monsoonal flow in to #Megi is also causing issues in the Philippines. All classes in Iloilo City have been suspended at this time

2054UTC TUESDAY

In Hualien City, on the east coast of Taiwan, a 635-ton crane was knocked over Monday by strong winds, according to reports. No injuries were reported following the accident,
2040UTC

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1741UTC MONDAY

WIND GUST reported in Okinawa up to 124kph

 

 

 

 

 

JAPAN WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK ; MORE SNOW EXPECTED

The 2015/2016 Winter Ski/Snowboard Season in Japan was well shy of a average year for the country famous for its deep snow packs. In fact it was some of the lowest snow totals in over a decade across many mountains of central Honshu.  BUT, for those who put up with the below than average snow be happy, this coming winter might be the flip side of the proverbial snow coin. 

THE FORECAST

JMA at this time along with overall guidance shows average to slightly above average snow total for the sea of Japan coastline from Hokkaido through Hokoriku with well above average south west through Kyushu.  This would be far more snow than Japan seen in 2016-2016.

jma-outlook

This was a result of the general weather pattern being skewed to produce more southerly storms that tend to track along the pacific coastline and are much warmer than the classic and infamous sea effect snow patterns Japan often gets during December through March which are a result of cold air spilling in across the sea of Japan picking up moisture and dumping across the mountains.

storm-tracks

The reason for this jarring in the air pattern? El Nino, In North America El Nino is a blessing for winter sports lovers with the season lasting well in to the spring this year and even the water deficit from years of drought some what recovering but in Japan the day in and day out of continued snowfall was no where to be found.

 

If we look back at historical records gathered from (Niigata Prefecture Records) over the past decade it is clear to see the change in sea surface temperatures based on La Nina and El Nino play a major role in the amount of snowfall ski resorts tend to get.

 

Total Snowfall Reports Per Year

Total Snowfall Reports Per Year

 

 

The Forecast

 

The climate prediction center in August stated the ENSO is in a neutral state leaning towards La Nina with it possible to come more in place this coming winter.  ( A Lina Watch was issued but since been dropped.)  Previous thoughts of it being a very strong La Nina are no longer in the picture but the atmospheric picture will be a far cry from last years Monster El Nino pattern that brought near record breaking snow shortages and the hottest year on record globally.

 

SST Anomalies

The graphic above shows the Sea Surface Temperature anomalies in the pacific with cooler than average near the South America Coast and above average off the coast of Japan. Overall though it is not cold enough for it to be a technical La Nina at this time.

 

(Not Sure what all the weather mumble jumble means? Check the video below)

 

What is the main weather event that brings snow to Japan? Sea effect snow.. what is sea effect snow? Check the video below.

MEGI THE 5TH STRONG TYPHOON TO SLAM TAIWAN IN 2 YEARS

Residents across Taiwan are bracing for yet another major typhoon to hit the island this year. Actually this could be the 5th “Super Typhoon” or “Violent Typhoon” to hit Taiwan in the past 2 years following Dujuan, Nepartak, Soudelor, and Meranti.

 

JTWC FORECAST TRACK

Megi is set to slam in to central Taiwan Tuesday morning as a “Very Strong” typhoon with winds 95G135kts in its inner eye wall. Hualien City looks to take some of the worst of the storm as of now but as we have seen in the past the mountains of Taiwan and the friction associated with them tend to move storms north or south as they near.

 

Of course the winds will be a major issue for the immediate coastal areas, downed trees, power lines and overturned cars are a real possibility. The good side of being hit so often by typhoons in Taiwan is that they have become accustomed to it and know how to prepare properly.

 

As always with land falling storms in Taiwan the rainfall will be the major problem. Easily up to 500-800mm of total precipitation will be possible on Tuesday as the storm slams in to the high mountains of the island.

 

Rainfall Threat in Taiwan on NHKWORLD

Rainfall Threat in Taiwan on NHKWORLD

South Eastern China including Guangdong and Fujian will also see a flood threat much like we seen with Nepartak and Meranti. Unlike Meranti which weakened and turned north, Megi will take a more westerly track lingering in the region while weakening and thus dropping most of its potential rainfall over the area increasing the threat of floods.

 

For those who want to follow some on the ground reports from in side the storm be sure to follow James Reynolds and Josh Morgerman on Twitter. Both are traveling across Taiwan to get ahead of this ever growing storm system.

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 Meanwhile for those in the northern Philippines the Batanes islands have been issued Signal Force Level 2 by PAGASA. Any other time this would be next to nothing for these islands but the province is still in recovery mode following Typhoon Meranti as it blew right over the islands last week.

Further south a slight enhanced monsoon is possible for Luzon but it should not be anything too extreme with some of the banding flaring up Monday Evening.

Western Japan including Ishigaki and Miyako will also see some winds gusting up to 126kph at times. Once again a area that is prone to typhoons and more than built to withstand Cat 1 winds. No evacuations likely on these islands.