Archive | September, 2016

MEGI FORMS NEAR GUAM

Could we have our next named storm “Megi” this coming weekend in the western pacific? The answer to that question is a likely yes, how strong will it get and where exactly it will go in the extended range is still up for debate.

For now this storm is still developing near Guam spurring the Guam NWS to issue a “Special Weather Statement” warning of heavy rainfall Friday with wind gust possible up to 45mph ( 72kph)

 

The tropical storm  expected to track west in to the weekend leaving Guam with improving conditions while our attention starts to focus more to the west. Current numerical guidance shows a high chance of Taiwan taking a hit from a Tropical Storm or Typhoon early next week with a risk but a lesser risk of the southern Japanese islands or the Northern Philippines being impacted.

The overall back ground flow indications a good chance for Taiwan though at this time with a simialer setup as we seen with Meranti in place heading in to the weekend.

 

For now the previously mentioned areas should watch the storm very close keeping a keen eye on how it develops over the coming days.

Strength?
That is anyones guess right now, numerical models are all over the place on this one with some showing a powerful typhoon while others keep it a weak cluster of clouds.

 

Key thing to note though is low shear and warming sea surface temperatures await this storm in the Philippine sea, this should spur along strengthening to a typhoon possibly by the start of next week. Time will tell on this one.

Daily weather brief – Thursday, September 22, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 22 SEP

NWPAC outlook, 22 SEP

NORTH

A rather dry and mild frontal system is sweeping quickly through the north region today, lowering humidity and temperatures just a bit. Lingering moisture will combine with the frontal system to bring a good chance of rainfall to mush of japan through the day, while the remainder of the region enjoys the autumnal equinox under partly cloudy skies.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

18

8 64 46

Mostly fair

Vladivostok

20

14 68 57

Partly cloudy

Beijing

27

16 81 61

Mostly fair

Seoul

26

13 79 55

Partly cloudy

Tokyo

22

21 72 70

Periods of rain

Xi’an

29

17 84 63

Mostly fair

Shanghai

27

19 81 66

Mostly fair

 

CENTRAL

A weak baroclinic trough has formed parallel to the coast of southeastern China and is acting as a focal point for moisture and energy in the region, especially for offshore locales. Taiwan and Okinawa will see a good chance for scattered showers through the day, and it will also be a bit cloudy over southern China and northern Indochina as warm early autumn temperatures dominate the region.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

21

12 70 54

Mostly cloudy

Hong Kong

30

26 86 79

Partly cloudy

Taipei

29

24 84 75

Scattered showers likely

Naha

28

26 82 79

Scattered showers likely

Hanoi

32

25 82 77

Mostly cloudy

 

SOUTH

Deep moisture remains over the south region helping provide fuel for the afternoon sun to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially over Indochina and the northern Philippines. Residents of the Philippines are keeping a watchful eye to the east, where 96W INVEST continues to slowly strengthen and get better organized. Southern locales in the region will also see a chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms, although to a lesser degree than locations to the north.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

32

24 90 75

Thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

31

24 88 75

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

32

26 90 79

Thunderstorms likely

Davao City

33

24 91 75

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Brunei

32

24 91 75

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Singapore

32

25 90 77

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS

All attention in the tropics is fixed on the developments with 96W INVEST, as it slowly gets better organized south of Guam.

TAAG, 22 SEP

TAAG, 22 SEP

96W INVEST continues to slowly organize while drifting mostly westward south of Guam. The low-level structure is slowly improving and it could very likely be our next named system, “MEGI”, by the end of the day. J.M.A. has already upgraded the system to a tropical depression, and the J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) issued a T.C.F.A. (Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert) yesterday for this system. Current forecasts based on computer models are starting to diverge a bit from the overall solution, but in general, this system is expected to become a typhoon-strength system as it passes through the Luzon Strait and towards Taiwan in the coming days.

96W full, 22 SEP

96W full, 22 SEP

The remainder of the tropics will see a fair chance for showers and thunderstorms, with eastern Micronesia getting a break as 96W pulls away with the moisture.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms likely

Yap

31

26 88 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Palau

29

27 84 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Chuuk

31

27 88 81

Partly cloudy

Pohnpei

32

23 90 73

Partly cloudy

Majuro

28

27 82 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Wake

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

Have a thrilling Thursday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR CHUUK

We now have a new tropical depression located near Chuuk in the western pacific. At this time confidence it will go west near Guam and intensify, extended range though is still up in the air and truly at this time it would be a guessing game to say any specific week and a half out landfall of track and intensity.

jma

For now areas from northern Luzon to Taiwan to Okinawa should keep a keen eye to the east through the weekend. I will put a video out later today breaking down what the models are suggesting at least at this time.

 

One thing to note is why are getting later in the tropical season and that means the threat of storms further south in to the Philippines is becoming a higher probability.

For satellite imagery on the storm check here. 

Daily weather brief – Wednesday, September 21, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 21 SEP

NWPAC outlook, 21 SEP

NORTH

The remnants of 18W MALAKAS continue to degrade as it moves offshore of Japan to the northeast. The storm dumped more than 500mm of rain over some portions of the country, leaving behind vast swaths of flooding. Japan should see much-improved weather today as things start to dry out just a bit. Elsewhere across the north region, warm air advection ahead of a new cool air surge from Siberia will help raise temperatures just a bit across Mongolia and northern China today. The new surge won’t get too far south, but it will cool things off significantly over the northernmost reaches of the region at the end of the week. Most locations in the region will see lots of sunshine today, with a few clouds hanging on in eastern China, and some showers popping up in Mongolia ahead of the new surge.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Ulaanbaatar 21 4 70 39 Scattered showers likely
Vladivostok 21 16 70 61 Mostly fair
Beijing 25 14 77 57 Partly cloudy
Seoul 25 15 77 59 Partly cloudy
Tokyo 24 19 75 66 Partly cloudy
Xi’an 28 15 82 59 Mostly fair
Shanghai 26 20 79 68 Mostly cloudy

 

CENTRAL

The central region will see a mixed bag of weather today as a stalled frontal system finally washes out overhead, aided by a recent infusion of tropical moisture from 18W MALAKAS, which blew through the region last weekend. Offshore locations will see a better chance for clouds and rainfall, as well as the highlands of south-central China. Everyone else will see a nice, warm, early autumn day.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions
Kunming 18 11 64 52 Mostly cloudy
Hong Kong 31 25 88 77 Partly cloudy
Taipei 28 24 82 75 Scattered showers likely
Naha 29 26 84 79 Mostly cloudy
Hanoi 32 24 82 75 Mostly fair

 

SOUTH

Tropical moisture and warm sunshine will help showers and thunderstorms develop over much of the south region today. Rainfall is more likely over Indochina and the northern Philippines, while the southern Philippines will get a bit of a break today, and Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, and Indonesia will see just scattered activity.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

31

24 88 75

Thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

32

24 90 75

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

32

26 90 79

Thunderstorms likely

Davao City

32

24 90 75

Partly cloudy

Brunei

32

24 91 75

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Singapore

32

25 90 77

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS

As 18W MALAKAS falls completely apart east of Japan, all eye turn to our developing system southeast of Guam, 96W INVEST.

TAAG, 21 SEP

TAAG, 21 SEP

I really didn’t want to talk about 18W MALAKAS on this report, but technically it is still on the books. MALAKAS dumped insane amounts of rainfall over parts of Japan over the past 48 hours, with locations reporting 400mm and even 500mm+!! Fortunately, MALAKAS has almost completely unraveled, and will get caught up in the jet stream and shipped away from the archipelago quickly.

18W, 21 SEP

18W, 21 SEP

Attention is turned to our next system, 96W INVEST. The J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) has upgraded this disturbance’s 24-hour formation potential to “medium” as the low-level structure improves, and atmospheric conditions remain favorable. Current forecast models are in pretty close alignment with the strength and track estimates, showing a typhoon-strength system by this weekend, with a track taking it through the Luzon Strait into, or near, Taiwan next week.

96W INVEST, 21 SEP

96W INVEST, 21 SEP

The remainder of the tropics will see the usual chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms, as the warm sunshine give the ample moisture a lift, with Palau, Pohnpei, and Wake Islands being the lone exceptions.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

31

26 88 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Yap

32

26 90 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Palau

30

27 86 81

Partly cloudy

Chuuk

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Pohnpei

30

21 86 70

Partly cloudy

Majuro

28

27 82 81

Thunderstorms likely

Wake

31

27 88 81

Mostly fair

 

Have a wacky Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

==================================================================

Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFICIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

All rights reserved. © 2016 Westernpacificweather.com