Archive | October, 2016

TROPICS START UP HEADING IN TO NOVEMBER

Things have been relatively calm through the end of October but that may change starting off November as we look at our potential next named storm system in the western pacific.

td

Now a Tropical Depression or known as “invest 90w” by NOAA this area of convection swirling near Guam has been raising eye brows for about a week now due to most global models persistence on developing this in to a named storm system and possibly a typhoon.

 

ENSEMBLE, Center line only on LPA, not intensity

ENSEMBLE, Center line only on LPA, not intensity

What do the models say today on November 1st?

 

Well, despite guidance only being about 72hr-96hr out the outputs from the super computers couldn’t be any more separated, some develop a typhoon others a weak low, most show re-curvature but our most dependable typhoon model the GFS continues to indicate a land falling storm in the Philippines later this week.

 

Another big thing throwing a curveball at the models is the location of multiple low pressure areas in the Philippine sea, these are interacting with each other along with the incoming cold surge.

 

Mean Wind Anlaysis

Mean Wind Anlaysis

My analysis

 

If our low develops north of 10N there is a better chance of it being picked up by the next passing trough out of the westerlies which is diving rather far south and pull it North East.

 

Yet if the Tropical Depression develops at 10N or south and manages to make it withstand the shear and pull of the trough it could drift west heading in to the weekend. I am in line with this idea but to a extent. I feel like the passing trough and shear will weaken the TD or keep it weak enough where we will not see a landfalling typhoon, but a big rain maker possibly over the upcoming weekend in the central Philippines.

 

These are my thoughts though and there is no official forecast released yet by any agency. We still have days in fact before anything really transpires in the tropics.

 

For now though those in Visayas should at the very least double check to make sure storm supplies are in order, if one hits or does not hit you will be happy you did.  Next update will be Wednesday, also be sure to check Michaels daily weather update for a  general overview of the weather in the Western Pacific.

Daily weather brief – Monday, October 31, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 31 OCT

NWPAC outlook, 31 OCT

NORTH

The newest surge of cooler air is rolling through the Asian continent, as wintry conditions sweep to the east along with the primary energy source for the system. The cold front associated with the surge is draped over a large area, extending to the southwest from northern Japan, along the archipelago, and then westward into eastern and central China where the tail end stalls out. Cold temperatures remain locked in over Mongolia, and northern china, while southeastern Russia looks forward to a significant cool down as well. High elevation show has been falling across Hokkaido in Japan, and this will extend southward into higher climes of Honshu over the next 24 hours. Temperatures behind the front are considerably colder, and the cooler air mass looks to stay in place ahead of an even stronger surge next weekend.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

-4

-15 25 5

Mostly fair

Vladivostok

0

-7 32 19

Partly cloudy

Beijing

6

-3 43 27

Mostly fair

Seoul

8

-3 46 27

Mostly cloudy

Tokyo

19

13 66 55

Partly cloudy

Xi’an

15

5 59 41

Mostly fair

Shanghai

17

13 63 55

Periods of rain

 

CENTRAL

Cooler air has also settled into much of the central region as we start the new work week. Temperatures are slightly cooler than this time last week, but the coldest air looks to stay to the north until the next strong surge makes its way down at the end of the week. Clouds and scattered showers will linger over Taiwan due to the strong NE’ly flow, and the leading edge of the first surge, which has lost most of its punch, is still creating a sharp contrast in the air masses as the tail end hangs around northern Indochina. Temperatures will be comfortably mild across the region, with most locations enjoying partly cloudy skies.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

17

11 63 52

Thunderstorms possible

Hong Kong

28

20 82 68

Mostly fair

Taipei

26

22 79 72

Scattered showers likely

Naha

28

24 82 75

Partly cloudy

Hanoi

24

20 75 68

Scattered showers likely

 

SOUTH

The leading edge of the first surge has settled in over portions of the northern Philippines, clearing skies and bringing fresh northeasterly winds to northern Luzon. The boundary is draped over the southern part of the island, and marks a clear boundary between the moisture of the tropics, and the influx of drier air to the north. Most of the region remains under a very warm and moist air mass, so scattered showers and thunderstorms will be likely for these locations. All interests in the south are watching the tropics closely as a trio of systems try to get organized, with at least two of them likely to affect the region in the next 7 days.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

32

23 90 73

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Ho Chi Minh

33

24 91 75

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Manila

33

26 91 79

Partly cloudy

Davao City

32

24 90 75

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Brunei

29

24 84 75

Thunderstorms likely

Singapore

31

25 88 77

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS

We have 3 different areas of investigation out in the tropics, with most computer forecast models in wide disagreement on the final solution of the complicated situation out in the region.

TAAG, 31 OCT

TAAG, 31 OCT

99W INVEST continues to move slowly to the west-northwest as it maintains its relatively weak structure. This system is not expected to impact any major land masses during its life cycle, which will likely take it to the north and northeast in the coming days. 90W INVEST, formerly 97W, continues to hold together southeast of Guam as it moves slowly westward. Having dealt with a hostile developmental environment over the weekend, the system continues to find itself in fairly marginal atmospheric conditions, so any development with this system will be slow. A new area to watch, 91W INVEST, has been designated just east of the southern Philippines. This system is actually the western terminus of a large trough that includes 90W on its eastern end. Some models are suggesting a slow strengthening prior to moving over the southern Philippines, with a more pronounced growth scenario once it reaches the South China Sea later this week.

INVEST full, 31 OCT

INVEST full, 31 OCT

Elsewhere across the region, it’s just another day of warm afternoon temperatures and numerous scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

30

26 86 79

Thunderstorms likely

Yap

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Palau

30

26 86 79

Thunderstorms likely

Chuuk

31

27 88 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Pohnpei

32

24 90 75

Thunderstorms likely

Majuro

29

27 84 81

Thunderstorms likely

Wake

31

27 88 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

Have a meaningful Monday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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Weekend weather brief – October 29/30, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 29/30 OCT

NWPAC outlook, 29/30 OCT

NORTH

Winter’s icy grip is locked in over Mongolia and northern China as a new cold surge settles into the north region. Temperatures will remain in a deep-freeze across the northernmost locales of the region as high pressure builds in from the northwest. While the initial surge makes its way out of the picture to the east, the latest, and strongest, Siberian surge will continue to push through the region this weekend, bringing temperatures down across the entirety of the region. Looking ahead, it appears this fall weather will stay in place with little rebound in temperatures across most locations heading into next week.

City

Sat High

C        F

Sun High

C        F

Conditions

Sat                          Sun

Ulaanbaatar

-7

19 -8 18 Partly cloudy

Partly cloudy

Vladivostok

6

43 5 41 Partly cloudy

Sctd. showers

Beijing

11

52 13 55 Partly cloudy

Partly cloudy

Seoul

11

52 13 55 Partly cloudy

Mostly fair

Tokyo

19

66 14 57 Mostly cloudy

Partly cloudy

Xi’an

14

57 16 61 Partly cloudy

Partly cloudy

Shanghai

17

63 18 64 Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

 

CENTRAL

The newest Siberian surge will make its way down into the central region from the north next week, and the initial cooling push has settled in as well, so this weekend will be considerably cooler than last. Some showers will linger across Taiwan, and back through south-central and southeastern China and northern Vietnam as the leftover trough form the last surge’s front washes out over the area. The remainder of the region will see a pleasant weekend ahead.

City

Sat High

C        F

Sun High

C        F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Kunming

15

59 16 61 Thunderstorms

Periods of rain

Hong Kong

29

84 28 82 Sctd. showers

Partly cloudy

Taipei

25

77 24 75 Sctd. showers

Sctd. showers

Naha

28

82 27 81 Partly cloudy

Partly cloudy

Hanoi

29

84 23 73 Sctd. showers

Sctd. showers

 

 SOUTH

The south region will stay muggy as Indochina, Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei, and northern Indonesia stay locked into the deep moisture. A tongue of high pressure from the ridge to the north continues to extend down into the northern Philippines, bringing drier conditions with the northeast monsoon. Temperatures will be comfortably warm across the region with numerous scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout.

City

Sat High

C        F

Sun High

C        F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Siem Reap

31

88 32 90 Thunderstorms

Sctd. t-storms

Ho Chi Minh

31

88 31 88 Sctd. t-storms

Sctd. t-storms

Manila

33

91 32 90 Partly cloudy

Partly cloudy

Davao City

31

88 32 90 Sctd. t-storms

Thunderstorms

Brunei

30

86 30 86 Sctd. t-storms

Thunderstorms

Singapore

31

88 29 84 Thunderstorms

Sctd. t-storms

 

TROPICS

The tropics are heating up a bit, as long-range forecast models wrestle on solutions, and remain fairly consistent is saying something will form in the next 5-7 days.

TAAG, 29 OCT

TAAG, 29 OCT

Currently we have 99W INVEST far to the east in the Marshall Islands. This system is not expected to become much, and the dominant steering mechanism for this system is rooted to the east, so it is expected to follow a more northerly track around the western periphery of that steering STR, and get caught up into the dominant baroclinic zone near 30N latitude in the coming days. We also have 90W INVEST, which was re-designated from what was 97W INVEST, east of Guam. We’re not sure why 97 went *poof*, but this is the system that forecast models are having a hard time figuring out, both in terms of strength, and movement. Much of that has to do with the hostile atmospheric conditions it is currently undergoing, followed by an incoming continental surge that is expected to arrive at about the same time the steering currents get the storm about 1500km east of the Philippines. Much remains to be seen with this system, and we will be watching it very carefully.

ALLINVEST, 29 OCT

ALLINVEST, 29 OCT

Elsewhere across the tropics, warm and muggy weather will be on the menu, with everyone expecting a chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms, with eastern Micronesia getting a break in the moisture under partly cloudy skies.

City

Sat High

C        F

Sun High

C        F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Guam

30

86 30 86 Sctd. t-storms

T-storms

Yap

31

88 29 84 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Palau

28

82 29 84 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Chuuk

32

90 30 86 Thunderstorms

Sctd. t-storms

Pohnpei

32

90 31 88 Partly cloudy

Partly cloudy

Majuro

30

86 29 84 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Wake

30

86 30 86 Sctd. t-storms

Sctd. t-storms

 

Have a wonderful weekend!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, NRL, JMA, JTWC

==================================================================

Disclaimer:

By making use of any information on this website, you agree to the following:

NO WARRANTIES: All of the information provided on this website is provided “AS-IS” and with NO WARRANTIES. No express or implied warranties of any type are made with respect to the information, or any use of the information, on this site. Westernpacificweather.com makes no representations and extends no warranties of any type as to the accuracy or completeness of any information or content on this website.

DISCLAIMER OF LIABILITY: Westernpacificweather.com specifically DISCLAIMS LIABILITY FOR INCIDENTAL OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES and assumes no responsibility or liability for any loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of the use or misuse of any of the information or content on this website. Westernpacificweather.com assumes or undertakes NO LIABILITY for any loss or damage suffered as a result of the use, misuse or reliance on the information and content on this website.

USE AT YOUR OWN RISK: This website is for informational purposes only. The opinions expressed within this website are the opinions of each contributor. Westernpacificweather.com urges you to consult with OFFCIAL sources for information whenever you feel a threat is impending.

All rights reserved. © 2016 Westernpacificweather.com