Archive | October 2, 2016

Daily weather brief – Monday, October 3, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 03 OCT

NWPAC outlook, 03 OCT

NORTH

Signs of the changing season abound in the north region as cooler temperatures settle into many parts of the region, and the season’s first snow is forecast for portions of Mongolia later this week. The front associated with the latest surge has stalled out over Japan and Korea, with the next newest surge coming in quickly on its heels. Showers and a few thunderstorms will pop along the old frontal boundary, as tropical moisture moving into the region will interact with the front. Showers will also crank up along the new front in southeastern Russia and northern China today. Warm air advection ahead of the new front will crank up temperatures over interior central China under mostly sunny skies.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

9

-2 48 28

Mostly cloudy

Vladivostok

18

9 64 48

Periods of rain

Beijing

29

14 84 57

Mostly fair

Seoul

27

13 81 55

Scattered showers likely

Tokyo

26

21 79 70

Periods of rain

Xi’an

34

19 93 66

Mostly fair

Shanghai

26

22 79 72

Partly cloudy

 

CENTRAL

All attention in the central region is turned to Typhoon 21W CHABA as it tracks towards Okinawa and the southern Ryukyu Islands today. CHABA is expected to be a very strong category 4 typhoon upon approaching Okinawa later this afternoon and evening. For more information on CHABA, please see the ‘tropics’ section of this update. Elsewhere across the region, some of the drier and cooler autumnal air has settled into the region, especially in the northernmost locations. Showers and thunderstorms will pop up over southeastern China near 90W INVEST, located just a few hundred kilometers offshore, while the rest of the region will see plenty of sunshine and a few scattered clouds.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

24

12 75 54

Mostly fair

Hong Kong

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms likely

Taipei

30

24 86 75

Partly cloudy

Naha

30

27 86 81

TYPHOON CONDITIONS

Hanoi

34

26 93 79

Mostly fair

 

SOUTH

Tropical heat and humidity continue to dominate the south region today. A bit of monsoonal energy associated with typhoon 21W CHABA will track across the Philippines over the next 24 hours, raising rainfall chances for the archipelago, especially northwestern provinces of the island of Luzon. Deep moisture interacting with generally active monsoonal energy will also generate clouds and showers over portions of Indochina as the warm afternoon sun gives a lift to the plentiful moisture.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

30

24 86 79

Thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

31

24 88 75

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

30

25 88 77

Thunderstorms likely

Davao City

32

24 90 75

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Brunei

33

25 91 77

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Singapore

32

25 90 77

Thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS

The systems dominate headlines in the tropics region, with typhoon 21W CHABA taking center stage as it approaches Okinawa.

TAAG, 03 OCT

TAAG, 03 OCT

Typhoon 1618/21W CHABA continues to track in a general northwesterly direction as it readies to begin a slow recurvature poleward, passing very close to Okinawa later this evening and overnight. CHABA is expected to maintain strength as a strong category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane strength scale as it passes within a few hundred kilometers of Okinawa this evening. Resident of Okinawa should have finalized their preparations and be seeking safe shelter to ride out this strong storm. For the latest information and live updates, please see the full report by Meteorologist Robert Speta here.

21W full, 03 OCT

21W full, 03 OCT

We also have a couple of disturbances being watched by agencies as 99W INVEST and 90W INVEST spin up in the region. 99W is slowly getting a little better organized west of the Mariana Islands as it tracks generally westward. Current GFS (Global Forecasting System) computer model runs show 99W to track generally westward, near northern Luzon on Wednesday and Thursday, emerging into the South China Sea and strengthening before making a landfall in Vietnam and a fairly significant system. 90W INVEST continues to spin up just offshore of southeastern China, a result of vorticity combining with tropical moisture along a stalled out, dry, continental trough. This system is expected to continue drifting westward with eventual dissipation.

ALLINVEST, 03 OCT

ALLINVEST, 03 OCT

The remainder of the tropics will see a day full of sunshine, clouds, and numerous showers and thunderstorms as the deep moisture interacts with plentiful energy and warm sunshine.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms likely

Yap

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms likely

Palau

28

27 82 81

Thunderstorms likely

Chuuk

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms likely

Pohnpei

28

22 82 72

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Majuro

28

27 82 81

Thunderstorms likely

Wake

30

27 86 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

Have a marvelous Monday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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TYPHOON CHABA IMPACTS OKINAWA LIVE UPDATES

Typhoon Chaba blew over Okinawa leaving thousands without power. A true testament to the infrastructure there as there has been limited reports of damage and injuries despite winds gusting up to 215kph at the storms peak on Kume-Jima. 

record-wind

Key Notes

 

  • A MAX WIND OF 215KPH was reported in Kume-Jima Okinawa just after midnight, this is a all time record for the island.
  • All Emergency level warnings for Okinawa have been dropped.
  • A total of 4,000 homes lost power overnight from Chaba.

IMPORTANT LINKS

LATEST FORECAST FROM JMA

LATEST FORECAST FROM JTWC

NHKWORLD TYPHOON UPDATES EVERY HOUR (Robert in the morning)

( WEATHER UPDATE ON NHKWORLD, may not be newest)

SATELLITE IMAGERY

WESTPACWX FACEBOOK

OUR FRIENDS AT OKINAWA TYPHOON AND PICS 

 

 —

 

0700JST

Initial reports out of Kume-Jima via telephone is that there has been overturned cars swept up in the winds, some homes have lost roofing and about 3,600 houses are without power. No reports of injuries yet. As far as structure damage not much to speak of at this time, the infrastructure of the islands coming through in the face of Cat 5 winds!

0600JST WEDNESDAY

All emergency warnings have been lifted in Okinawa. Still not a beach day but the life threatening conditions are over. -Robert

About 4,000 homes across Okinawa have lost power.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/lnews/okinawa/5093215331.html?t=1475528210676

1941JST

 

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1904JST

For those in Okinawa who are disappointed this evening I will be bluntly honest. I would be happy right now core of Typhoon Chaba is not hitting. This storm has strengthened today quite dramatically up to a CAT 5 equivalent, albiet its size overall has not gotten bigger. In perspective Matthew in the Atlantic right now which is getting a lot of hype has sustained winds of 215kph while Chaba has 270kph sustained winds via JTWC.

sat-image

1821JST

Tropical storm strength wind gust seen this hour in #Naha up to 43kts. Still far shy of the 155kts in the storms center.

http://www.data.jma.go.jp/obd/stats/data/mdrr/rank_daily/data00.html

1809JST

Looking more and more like the island of Kume-Jima is going to take the direct hit from this Monster now “super typhoon” Chaba. With a population of about 8,200 people the island does not have a huge population. Still though this island just west of Okinawa will likely see power outages and damage. Expect photos of cars launched in to walls or trees in the morning. -Rob

kume

1546JST

Coastal beach roads in Urama have been closed due to rough seas and high winds.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/lnews/okinawa/5093174213.html?t=1475477110829

18 Municipalities in Okinawa have issued Evacuation advisories;  shelters have been set up in those areas for volunteer evacuation.

1540JST

https://www.facebook.com/plugins/video.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FWestpacwx%2Fvideos%2F1288196837881405%2F&show_text=0&width=560

1224JST MONDAY

About 300 flights have been cancelled in Okinawa this Monday

1200JST MONDAY

https://www.facebook.com/plugins/video.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.facebook.com%2FWestpacwx%2Fvideos%2F1288058727895216%2F&show_text=0&width=560

1135JST MONDAY

eyewall

1000JST MONDAY

The NAHA Monorail (the only train in Okinawa) will be suspended from 3PM Monday as Chaba nears.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/lnews/okinawa/5093152255.html?t=1475458044048

0930JST MONDAY

All hospitals in Okinawa have been closed outside of Emergencies.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/lnews/okinawa/5093152313.html?t=1475457987060

0900JST MONDAY

Typhoon Chaba still looking dangerous via the Visible Satellite image at sunrise this morning. The storm will track just west of Okinawa hopefully far enough keeping the inner eye wall off shore. But its going to be a close call with the closest approach just prior to midnight. -Robert

sat-image

0830JST MONDAY

Eye wall of Typhoon Chaba now visible on land based radar out of Okinawa. Inner eye wall is where the core of the winds is located and looks to be tracking just west of the island at this time. If this occurs then the forecast would vastly improve for Okinawa Honto.

0800 RADAR

0800 RADAR

0800JST MONDAY

Wind gust up to 41kts recorded on Minami Daito Okinawa. First Tropical storm strength wind recorded from the storm.

0730JST MONDAY

Most flights have been cancelled from Naha to other islands in Okinawa for Tuesday.

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/lnews/okinawa/5093152252.html?t=1475449500325

0600JST MONDAY

NAHA Schools announced to be closed on Monday

 

 

 

 

TYPHOON CHABA Landfall expected Monday in Okinawa


Typhoon Chaba continues to near Okinawa with a expected landfall over the southern island of Japan by Monday afternoon. 

Most agencies (below) along with numerical models continue to suggest this stor will move right over Okinawa Honto bringing the fiercest of what could be a Category 3 equivalent Typhoon. 


Key thing to note though is this storm is not a particularly “large” one meaning if the storms track wavers even a little to the east or west conditions and the forecast will dramatically change for the island. 

With that said residents here should still prepare for storm taking those extra precautions such as securing loose and light objects outdoors. Key thing to remember though is that Okinawa is built for storms so as long people stay indoors and ride out the storm without making any poor decisions like heading out to the beach to take photos of the ocean.


By Tuesday afternoon the storm should make its way north with another landfall by the afternoon hours. Further north the winds wil still be strong enough to kick around light objects but more so the rain will be a issue. Especially for the mountains of southern Kyushu through Shikoku and in to Western Honshu. The Tokyo area Tuesday night in to Wednesday will also get heavy rainfall from the storm with possible river flooding. 


(This update was typed on my phone on top of a Elementary School In Tokyo.. Apologize for typos etc. )