Daily weather brief – Monday, October 3, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 03 OCT

NORTH

Signs of the changing season abound in the north region as cooler temperatures settle into many parts of the region, and the season’s first snow is forecast for portions of Mongolia later this week. The front associated with the latest surge has stalled out over Japan and Korea, with the next newest surge coming in quickly on its heels. Showers and a few thunderstorms will pop along the old frontal boundary, as tropical moisture moving into the region will interact with the front. Showers will also crank up along the new front in southeastern Russia and northern China today. Warm air advection ahead of the new front will crank up temperatures over interior central China under mostly sunny skies.

CENTRAL

All attention in the central region is turned to Typhoon 21W CHABA as it tracks towards Okinawa and the southern Ryukyu Islands today. CHABA is expected to be a very strong category 4 typhoon upon approaching Okinawa later this afternoon and evening. For more information on CHABA, please see the ‘tropics’ section of this update. Elsewhere across the region, some of the drier and cooler autumnal air has settled into the region, especially in the northernmost locations. Showers and thunderstorms will pop up over southeastern China near 90W INVEST, located just a few hundred kilometers offshore, while the rest of the region will see plenty of sunshine and a few scattered clouds.

SOUTH

Tropical heat and humidity continue to dominate the south region today. A bit of monsoonal energy associated with typhoon 21W CHABA will track across the Philippines over the next 24 hours, raising rainfall chances for the archipelago, especially northwestern provinces of the island of Luzon. Deep moisture interacting with generally active monsoonal energy will also generate clouds and showers over portions of Indochina as the warm afternoon sun gives a lift to the plentiful moisture.

TROPICS

The systems dominate headlines in the tropics region, with typhoon 21W CHABA taking center stage as it approaches Okinawa.

TAAG, 03 OCT

Typhoon 1618/21W CHABA continues to track in a general northwesterly direction as it readies to begin a slow recurvature poleward, passing very close to Okinawa later this evening and overnight. CHABA is expected to maintain strength as a strong category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane strength scale as it passes within a few hundred kilometers of Okinawa this evening. Resident of Okinawa should have finalized their preparations and be seeking safe shelter to ride out this strong storm. For the latest information and live updates, please see the full report by Meteorologist Robert Speta here.

21W full, 03 OCT

We also have a couple of disturbances being watched by agencies as 99W INVEST and 90W INVEST spin up in the region. 99W is slowly getting a little better organized west of the Mariana Islands as it tracks generally westward. Current GFS (Global Forecasting System) computer model runs show 99W to track generally westward, near northern Luzon on Wednesday and Thursday, emerging into the South China Sea and strengthening before making a landfall in Vietnam and a fairly significant system. 90W INVEST continues to spin up just offshore of southeastern China, a result of vorticity combining with tropical moisture along a stalled out, dry, continental trough. This system is expected to continue drifting westward with eventual dissipation.

ALLINVEST, 03 OCT

The remainder of the tropics will see a day full of sunshine, clouds, and numerous showers and thunderstorms as the deep moisture interacts with plentiful energy and warm sunshine.

Have a marvelous Monday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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