Daily weather brief – Tuesday, October 4, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 04 OCT

NORTH

More cool air continues to plunge down into the north region from Siberia as the change of seasons continues. The air will get so cold, in fact, that snow is forecast for parts of Mongolia and northern China tomorrow and Thursday. A slow-moving frontal system will fire up showers and thunderstorms across north-central China, and tropical moisture will bring a few showers to eastern coastal China. Most locations across the north are experiencing a comfortable day, with the exceptions being Japan and Korea, as tropical heat and moisture associated with Typhoon 21W CHABA moves into the vicinity. This system is expected to pass between Japan and the Korean peninsula tomorrow morning, while weakening, making a final landfall along the western coast of central Honshu later in the week as it transitions into an extra-tropical system.

CENTRAL

Typhoon 21W CHABA passed just west of Okinawa overnight, which allowed the islands 1 million-plus residents to catch a BIG break as the storm intensified to a violent category 5 equivalent storm on the Saffir-Simpson tropical cyclone strength scale. CHABA will continue to move to the north and curve to the northeast, tracking between Japan and Korea in the next 36 hours. CHABA will continue to bring rainfall and occasionally gusty winds to Naha, and even a few showers to Taiwan as the southern inflow affects the island. A few showers will also pop up along China’s southeastern coast as tropical moisture lingers in the area, while the remainder of the region will see a peasant day with a few scattered clouds and lots of warm sunshine.

SOUTH

The south region will see another warm and damp day across the majority of the locales, especially in the Philippines, where 99W INVEST continues to barrel towards the archipelago, enhancing rain chances. This system is expected to stay weak as it traverses near, or over, northern Luzon by Thursday, emerging into the South China Sea later this weekend and gaining strength en route to Vietnam. For today, thunderstorms will be plentiful across the entire region as deep tropical moisture gets a lift from the very warm afternoon sun.

TROPICS

The tropics are getting busier as we deal with the final days of Typhoon 21W CHABA and watch the development of 99W INVEST, which is looking more impressive this morning.

TAAG, 04 OCT

Typhoon 21W CHABA spared Okinawa last night as it ramped up to a colossal category 5 storm last evening, passing just to the west of the island of 1million-plus residents. CHABA is expected to maintain strength through the next 12-24 hours, where a slow, gradual weakening trend is forecast as the system moves between Japan and the Korean peninsula, with a final landfall along the western shores of Honshu later this week as it begins extra-tropical transition. For more details on CHABAs impacts, please see the full report by Meteorologist Robert Speta.

21W full, 04 OCT

99W INVEST is looking much more impressive on satellite loops this morning as a L.L.C.C. (Low-Level Circulation Center) appears evident. The system is well west of the Mariana Islands, and will be moving into PAGASA’s P.A.R. (Philippines’ Area of Responsibility) later this morning. Current computer models bring a weak, possibly tropical depression-strength system over, or near, northern Luzon by Thursday, and take it to the WSW into the South China Sea where further strengthening is likely as it tracks towards Vietnam.

99W full, 04 OCT

Models are also showing another weak LPA (Low Pressure Area) spinning up this weekend in the wake of 99W as it gets into the South China Sea; however, 99W is expected to absorb this disturbance before it can get very strong.

Elsewhere across the tropics today, we will see another day of numerous showers and thunderstorms as plentiful moisture interacts with scattered pockets of instability and gets a lift from the intense afternoon sun.

Have a tubular Tuesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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