Archive | October 5, 2016

AERE / JULIAN COULD BE A FLOOD MAKER IN THE PHILIPPINES

The Japan Meteorological Agency has announced our 19th named storm of 2016 Wednesday night with the formation of Tropical Storm Aere north of Luzon. Compared to previous storms this one is much smaller and is a far far cry from the intensity of Meranti and Chaba. Still though it has its own serious aspects to it and could be a sneaky storm to bring flooding to parts of the Philippines and eventually Vietnam.

 

JMA TRACK

The center of Aere itself is likely to not really be much of a threat, so when we take a look at the graphic below and get a idea of the “forecast track” we need to realize that is for the center of circulation but there is more at work here with the overall atmospheric dynamics.

 

ECMWF RAINFALL 72HR SOURCE WXBELL

ECMWF RAINFALL 72HR SOURCE WXBELL

While Aere tracks north of the Philippines it will enhance the “monsoonal surge” for the country resulting in localized flooding for areas south of Manila through Visayas. A few areas could see rain totals in access of 250mm resulting in flooding and specifically urban flooding as well as landslides in hilly terrain.

 

To make matters worst Aere will likely linger west of the Philippines in to the weekend keeping that monsoonal flow hard at work across the country.

To check for local warnings from PAGASA I suggest using their FB page, it works smoother and swifter than their website.

Or you can try our friends at weather.com.ph.

Tropical Depression Julian (Possible Aere) Forms Near Luzon

2016 was a late start to the typhoon season but once the ball started rolling it kept going and now feel like a unstoppable boulder. A new named storm has been announced by PAGASA north east of Luzon.

 

PAGASA names storms when they enter their “PAR” and are designated a tropical depress. JMA will wait until it becomes a tropical storm before slapping a name on this area. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) will do that likely by Thursday evening according to their forecast.

batanes

Philippine Impacts?

 

For the Philippines out side of some scattered showers in the Batanes Islands I would not expect to much to come from this storm directly. Current forecasts show this system to pass north of the Philippines through the Luzon Strait, and major model consensus takes the system into the South China Sea this weekend, where it will strengthen and take a turn to the west-southwest and southwest towards central Vietnam.

Check Satellite Imagery here. 

One thing that may occur though is a “monsoonal surge” coming in behind the storm that could impact the Central Philippines heading in to the weekend. Even localized flooding is possible in Cebu and surrounding islands in Visayas.

 

72hr Rainfall Accumulation

72hr Rainfall Accumulation

To check for local warnings from PAGASA I suggest using their FB page, it works smoother and swifter than their website.

 

Or you can try our friends at weather.com.ph.

Daily weather brief – Wednesday, October 5, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 05 OCT

NWPAC outlook, 05 OCT

NORTH

A totally mixed up weather scene is affecting the north region as the coldest air of the season surges southward into Mongolia from Siberia, and Typhoon CHABA continues to track through the East China Sea. CHABA is weakening as a result of unfavorable conditions as it moves generally northeast. The system is expected to pass between Sasebo, Japan, and Busan, South Korea during the day today, bringing tropical storm and typhoon conditions to all of southeastern South Korea and southwestern Japan.

Elsewhere in the north region, very cold air has pushed down into Mongolia today, bringing the season’s first snowfall to the region. A weaker frontal system has stalled out over central Japan, stretching back into the Korean peninsula, dividing very warm moist air, from slightly cooler and drier air to the north. Most locations across the region will see clouds and showers today, with the worst weather being associated with CHABA.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

3

-6 37 21

Periods of snow

Vladivostok

14

7 57 45

Scattered showers likely

Beijing

24

12 75 54

Mostly fair

Seoul

24

12 75 54

Scattered showers likely

Tokyo

24

23 75 73

Scattered showers likely

Xi’an

23

16 73 61

Scattered showers likely

Shanghai

27

22 81 72

Mostly cloudy

 

CENTRAL

Lingering moisture will raise precipitation chances across most of the central region today, and Typhoon CHABA exits the region to the north. CHABA brought in some very warm air from the tropics, so most locations will see a balmy afternoon. The lone exception will be in the high country of central China, where a weak trough has helped transport some cooler and drier air into the area.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

23

12 73 54

Mostly fair

Hong Kong

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms likely

Taipei

31

26 88 79

Mostly cloudy

Naha

30

27 86 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Hanoi

32

24 90 75

Thunderstorms likely

 

SOUTH

Attention in the south region is attuned to the quickly-developing tropical depression “Julian”, as named by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA. This system is expected to stay north of the Philippines and track into the South China Sea, with an eventual path towards Vietnam in the coming days as a stronger system. The Philippines, primarily northwestern Luzon, will likely see a good deal of rainfall from this system, especially over the weekend as it begins to strengthen to the northwest of the archipelago. Elsewhere across the south region, we have the usual setup with copious atmospheric moisture and intense sunshine, which will combine to generate showers and thunderstorms over most of the region this afternoon.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

32

24 90 79

Thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

32

25 90 77

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

31

25 88 77

Thunderstorms likely

Davao City

31

24 88 75

Thunderstorms likely

Brunei

33

24 91 75

Partly cloudy

Singapore

32

26 90 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS

Typhoon 21W CHABA continues to cruise through the East China Sea, while attention in the region starts to shift to the developing tropical depression 99W/“Julian”.

TAAG, 05 OCT

TAAG, 05 OCT

Typhoon CHABA will batter portions of Japan and South Korea today as it passes through the waters separating the South China Sea from the Sea of Japan. The system is expected to continue on a generally northeast track, as it weakens due to hostile atmospheric conditions. Portions of eastern South Korea and southwestern Japan will see tropical storm conditions, with some spots getting hit by typhoon conditions as the system passes through today. CHABA is expected to continue to weaken and begin a transition to an extra-tropical system as it passes over northern Japan tomorrow. For a more in-depth look at CHABA, please check out the full report by WPACWX meteorologist Robert Speta.

21W full, 05 OCT

21W full, 05 OCT

99W INVEST, as designated by the JTWC (Joint Typhoon Warning Center), has been designated a tropical depression by both JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency), and the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, where they have named the system “Julian”. Current forecasts show this system to pass north of the Philippines through the Luzon Strait, and major model consensus takes the system into the South China Sea this weekend, where it will strengthen and take a turn to the west-southwest and southwest towards central Vietnam.

99W full, 05 OCT

99W full, 05 OCT

Another system has moved into the extreme eastern portion of the region, as what was designated 94C INVEST has been designated a tropical depression by JMA. Current computer forecast model take this weak system to the northwest, with an exit from the tropics to the northeast as an extra-tropical system.

94C full, 05 OCT

94C full, 05 OCT

The remainder of the tropics will see a good chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms today as plentiful moisture gets a lift from the warm afternoon sun.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

30

26 86 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Yap

30

26 86 79

Partly cloudy

Palau

28

27 82 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Chuuk

30

26 86 79

Partly cloudy

Pohnpei

27

21 81 70

Thunderstorms likely

Majuro

28

27 82 81

Thunderstorms likely

Wake

31

27 88 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

Have a wacky Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, PAGASA, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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