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AERE / JULIAN COULD BE A FLOOD MAKER IN THE PHILIPPINES

The Japan Meteorological Agency has announced our 19th named storm of 2016 Wednesday night with the formation of Tropical Storm Aere north of Luzon. Compared to previous storms this one is much smaller and is a far far cry from the intensity of Meranti and Chaba. Still though it has its own serious aspects to it and could be a sneaky storm to bring flooding to parts of the Philippines and eventually Vietnam.

 

JMA TRACK

The center of Aere itself is likely to not really be much of a threat, so when we take a look at the graphic below and get a idea of the “forecast track” we need to realize that is for the center of circulation but there is more at work here with the overall atmospheric dynamics.

 

ECMWF RAINFALL 72HR SOURCE WXBELL

ECMWF RAINFALL 72HR SOURCE WXBELL

While Aere tracks north of the Philippines it will enhance the “monsoonal surge” for the country resulting in localized flooding for areas south of Manila through Visayas. A few areas could see rain totals in access of 250mm resulting in flooding and specifically urban flooding as well as landslides in hilly terrain.

 

To make matters worst Aere will likely linger west of the Philippines in to the weekend keeping that monsoonal flow hard at work across the country.

To check for local warnings from PAGASA I suggest using their FB page, it works smoother and swifter than their website.

Or you can try our friends at weather.com.ph.

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