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Daily weather brief – Thursday, October 6, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 06 OCT

NWPAC outlook, 06 OCT

NORTH

As 21W CHABA breaks down and quickly leaves the north region, we focus on the cooler air that has been moving into the region for the past few days. CHABA left a wake of destruction in its path, with deadly flooding in parts of Japan and Korea, so its exit is great news. Meanwhile, the coldest air of the season brought snowfall to portions of Mongolia and northern China yesterday, and the cold pool remains lodged over that portion of the region as it slides to the east. Some cooler air is filtering down into other parts of the region, and the frontal boundary associated with the first pulse is now sweeping through Japan today. A new weak pulse of energy is moving through central China, bringing some clouds and rain to those locales. Elsewhere, it should be a rather comfortable day with seasonable temperatures under partly cloudy skies.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

5

-4 41 25

Mostly cloudy

Vladivostok

16

6 59 43

Mostly fair

Beijing

17

13 63 55

Periods of rain

Seoul

22

14 72 57

Mostly fair

Tokyo

29

18 84 64

Mostly fair

Xi’an

20

15 68 59

Scattered showers likely

Shanghai

25

22 77 72

Partly cloudy

 

CENTRAL

Warm air advection ahead of a new surge of cooler air will keep temperatures warm across the central region today. Most of the precipitation will be restricted to coastal and offshore locations of southeast China, while the interior mainland areas can expect sunny to partly cloudy skies.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

22

13 72 55

Partly cloudy

Hong Kong

32

27 90 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Taipei

31

26 88 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Naha

31

27 88 81

Mostly fair

Hanoi

34

23 93 73

Mostly fair

 

SOUTH

Tropical storm 22W AERE, also named “Julian” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, looks to make things interesting in the south region for the next several days. Current forecasts are now trending towards a rather significant rainfall event for portions of the Philippines as AERE (Julian) tracks slowly to the WSW across the South China Sea.

ECMWF RAINFALL 72HR SOURCE WXBELL

ECMWF RAINFALL 72HR SOURCE WXBELL

The system is not expected to gain a lot of strength, and in fact, appears to be more monsoonal in structure, compared to recent systems. But this could spell a very wet weekend for the Philippines and for Vietnam next week. For more information on the threat to the Philippines from this system, please see the full report by WPACWX meteorologist Robert Speta.

In the meantime, plentiful moisture across the south region will combine with the warm afternoon sun, and generate showers and thunderstorms over much of the region today.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

31

24 88 79

Thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

30

25 86 77

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

29

25 84 77

Thunderstorms likely

Davao City

32

24 90 75

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Brunei

32

24 90 75

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Singapore

31

25 88 77

Thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS

With the exit and extra-tropical transition of 21W CHABA having taken place, all attention now turns to tropical storm 22W AERE north of the Philippines.

TAAG, 06 OCT

TAAG, 06 OCT

Tropical storm 22W AERE Tropical storm 22W AERE, also named “Julian” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, continues to slowly gather strength as it tracks generally westward through the Luzon Strait. The system more resembles a monsoon-structured system, and this could be the primary focus of the storm’s affects, especially over parts of the Philippines during the latter days of this week and into the weekend. Current ECMWF forecasts indicate as much as 130mm of rainfall could fall over western portions of Luzon by Saturday, with rainfall continuing through the weekend. Total storm amounts could exceed 300mm in some areas. AERE (Julian) is expected to strengthen slowly, staying just below typhoon strength as it takes a slow southwesterly turn over the next 3 days, ultimately making landfall in Vietnam as a very wet tropical storm.

22W full, 06 OCT

22W full, 06 OCT

We also have what agencies are referring to as a sub-tropical low far to the east in the form of what was 94C INVEST. This system is expected to stay weak, and track in an arc to the north and northeast and out of the picture.

94C full, 06 OCT

94C full, 06 OCT

Elsewhere across the tropics, a lack of energy in eastern Micronesia will help skies stay clear over those locales, while everyone else will see a good chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

32

26 90 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Yap

30

26 86 79

Thunderstorms possible

Palau

28

27 82 81

Partly cloudy

Chuuk

31

26 88 79

Partly cloudy

Pohnpei

29

22 84 72

Partly cloudy

Majuro

29

28 84 82

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Wake

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms likely

 

Have a thrilling Thursday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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