Weekend weather brief – October 8/9, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 8/9 OCT

NORTH

Autumn is settling in over most of the north region this weekend as a significant frontal system sweeps through eastern China, Korea, and Japan by Sunday. Lower temperatures and drier air is bringing the feel of fall to these areas. Some clouds and showers will fall over portions of eastern and central China, while Japan will see mostly a washout this weekend, as tropical moisture gets swept up by the frontal system passing through.

CENTRAL

Tropical storm 22W AERE will linger offshore of Hong Kong through the weekend, offering up a chance for clouds and showers over southeastern China through the weekend. The moisture associated with the system will also truck in some rainfall to Taiwan both days. Tropical moisture will combine with an incoming cold front to bring a chance of showers to Naha, with a new pulse of energy passing through the high country of central China increasing precipitation chances there. Warm air advection ahead of the newest cold surge will heat things up in southern China and northern Indochina, where sunny to partly cloudy skies will dominate.

SOUTH

Tropical storm 22W AERE continues to linger over the northern South China Sea where forecasts take it very slowly southwestward starting next week. This monsoonal-type system will continue to bring periods of heavy rain to the northern Philippines through the weekend. The remainder of the region will also see a good chance for showers and thunderstorms, as deep tropical moisture gets a lift form the warm afternoon sun.

TROPICS

As tropical storm 22W AERE continues to spin up over the northern South China Sea, we are also watching the unlikely development of 94C INVEST far to the east.

TAAG, 08 OCT

Tropical storm 22W AERE blossomed up yesterday under high SST’s (Sea Surface Temperatures) and low VWS (Vertical Wind Shear) just southeast of Hong Kong. The system is expected to linger in the area due to changing steering patterns over the WPAC this weekend, with an eventual track to the west-southwest early next week. Both monitoring agencies in the region forecast the system to reach minimal typhoon strength this weekend, with the J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) forecasting peak strength of 70kt. (130kph) overnight tonight, and J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency) forecasting peak strength of 80kt. (overnight Sunday). The system is expected to move very slowly over the next 24 hours as steering mechanisms change, with a decline in strength early next week as the system encounters more hostile atmospheric conditions and gets pushed to the southwest.

22W full, 08 OCT

Tropical depression/disturbance 94C INVEST has been, surprisingly, getting better organized over the past 48 hours, resembling a warm-core system more and more as it spins over the warm waters of the northwest Pacific near Wake Island. J.M.A declared the system a tropical depression days ago, but the J.T.W.C. has been reluctant to assign any tropical designation until this morning, when a T.C.F.A. (Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert) was issued by the agency. Current forecasts call for the system to move general northwestward, with an eventual recurvature to the north and northeast as it get caught up in a surge of continental air moving through the area.

94C full, 08 OCT

Elsewhere, with lots of moisture to work with region-wide, the warm afternoon sun will help fire off plentiful showers and thunderstorms across most locations within the region through the weekend.

Have a wonderful weekend!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, NRL, JMA, JTWC

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