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Weekend weather brief – October 8/9, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 8/9 OCT

NWPAC outlook, 8/9 OCT

NORTH

Autumn is settling in over most of the north region this weekend as a significant frontal system sweeps through eastern China, Korea, and Japan by Sunday. Lower temperatures and drier air is bringing the feel of fall to these areas. Some clouds and showers will fall over portions of eastern and central China, while Japan will see mostly a washout this weekend, as tropical moisture gets swept up by the frontal system passing through.

City

Sat High

C       F

Sun High

C       F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Ulaanbaatar

2

36 6 43 Mostly fair

Partly cloudy

Vladivostok

16

61 11 52 Sctd. showers

Mostly fair

Beijing

18

64 18 64 Mostly fair

Mostly fair

Seoul

22

72 16 61 Partly cloudy

Mostly fair

Tokyo

26

79 25 77 Thunderstorms

Periods of rain

Xi’an

21

70 16 61 Mostly cloudy

Sctd. showers

Shanghai

23

73 20 68 Sctd. showers

Partly cloudy

 

CENTRAL

Tropical storm 22W AERE will linger offshore of Hong Kong through the weekend, offering up a chance for clouds and showers over southeastern China through the weekend. The moisture associated with the system will also truck in some rainfall to Taiwan both days. Tropical moisture will combine with an incoming cold front to bring a chance of showers to Naha, with a new pulse of energy passing through the high country of central China increasing precipitation chances there. Warm air advection ahead of the newest cold surge will heat things up in southern China and northern Indochina, where sunny to partly cloudy skies will dominate.

City

Sat High

C       F

Sun High

C       F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Kunming

18

64 14 57 Sctd. showers

Thunderstorms

Hong Kong

31

88 28 82 Sctd. showers

Mostly cloudy

Taipei

28

82 26 79 Periods of rain

Periods of rain

Naha

30

86 29 84 Sctd. t-storms

Thunderstorms

Hanoi

35

95 33 91 Mostly fair

Partly cloudy

 

SOUTH

Tropical storm 22W AERE continues to linger over the northern South China Sea where forecasts take it very slowly southwestward starting next week. This monsoonal-type system will continue to bring periods of heavy rain to the northern Philippines through the weekend. The remainder of the region will also see a good chance for showers and thunderstorms, as deep tropical moisture gets a lift form the warm afternoon sun.

City

Sat High

C       F

Sun High

C       F

Conditions

Sat                         Sun

Siem Reap

29

84 30 86 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Ho Chi Minh

29

84 30 86 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Manila

31

88 31 88 Thunderstorms

Thunderstorms

Davao City

32

90 32 90 Sctd. t-storms

Thunderstorms

Brunei

31

88 31 88 Sctd. t-storms

Thunderstorms

Singapore

32

90 32 90 Thunderstorms

Partly cloudy

 

TROPICS

As tropical storm 22W AERE continues to spin up over the northern South China Sea, we are also watching the unlikely development of 94C INVEST far to the east.

TAAG, 08 OCT

TAAG, 08 OCT

Tropical storm 22W AERE blossomed up yesterday under high SST’s (Sea Surface Temperatures) and low VWS (Vertical Wind Shear) just southeast of Hong Kong. The system is expected to linger in the area due to changing steering patterns over the WPAC this weekend, with an eventual track to the west-southwest early next week. Both monitoring agencies in the region forecast the system to reach minimal typhoon strength this weekend, with the J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) forecasting peak strength of 70kt. (130kph) overnight tonight, and J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency) forecasting peak strength of 80kt. (overnight Sunday). The system is expected to move very slowly over the next 24 hours as steering mechanisms change, with a decline in strength early next week as the system encounters more hostile atmospheric conditions and gets pushed to the southwest.

22W full, 08 OCT

22W full, 08 OCT

Tropical depression/disturbance 94C INVEST has been, surprisingly, getting better organized over the past 48 hours, resembling a warm-core system more and more as it spins over the warm waters of the northwest Pacific near Wake Island. J.M.A declared the system a tropical depression days ago, but the J.T.W.C. has been reluctant to assign any tropical designation until this morning, when a T.C.F.A. (Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert) was issued by the agency. Current forecasts call for the system to move general northwestward, with an eventual recurvature to the north and northeast as it get caught up in a surge of continental air moving through the area.

94C full, 08 OCT

94C full, 08 OCT

Elsewhere, with lots of moisture to work with region-wide, the warm afternoon sun will help fire off plentiful showers and thunderstorms across most locations within the region through the weekend.

City

Sat High

C       F

Sun High

C       F

Conditions

Sat                        Sun

Guam

31

88 31 88 Sctd. t-storms

Partly cloudy

Yap

29

84 29 84 Sctd. t-storms

Thunderstorms

Palau

28

82 28 82 Sctd. t-storms

Thunderstorms

Chuuk

31

88 30 86 Sctd. t-storms

Sctd. t-storms

Pohnpei

34

93 29 84 Partly cloudy

Sctd. t-storms

Majuro

28

82 28 82 Sctd. t-storms

Thunderstorms

Wake

29

84 30 86 Thunderstorms

Partly cloudy

 

Have a wonderful weekend!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, NRL, JMA, JTWC

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