October 11, 2016 
NWPAC outlook, 11 OCT
NORTH
Cool, autumn air continues to dominate across much of the north region as frontal systems start making a more regular progression across the region. Readings are rebounding slightly as the cool air mass moderates under the warm sunshine. Warm moist air from the south will override the cooler surface layer in central China, helping squeeze out a few showers. The remainder of the region will see a nice day with lots of sunshine.
| City |
High/Low C |
High/Low
F |
Conditions |
||
| Ulaanbaatar |
6 |
-4 | 43 | 25 |
Mostly fair |
| Vladivostok |
12 |
5 | 54 | 41 |
Mostly fair |
| Beijing |
19 |
7 | 66 | 45 |
Mostly fair |
| Seoul |
21 |
8 | 70 | 46 |
Partly cloudy |
| Tokyo |
21 |
14 | 70 | 57 |
Partly cloudy |
| Xi’an |
18 |
12 | 64 | 54 |
Scattered showers possible |
| Shanghai |
23 |
19 | 73 | 68 |
Partly cloudy |
CENTRAL
As the remnants of tropical depression 22W AERE fizzle out between Taiwan and Hong Kong, there’s a chance for clouds and showers, and even a few scattered thunderstorms in store for both locations today. A new pulse of energy coming in from the west will also bring a chance of thunderstorms to high country of south-central China this afternoon. Elsewhere, skies will be partly cloudy with very warm temperatures to the south.
| City |
High/Low C |
High/Low
F |
Conditions |
||
| Kunming |
22 |
14 | 72 | 57 |
Thunderstorms possible |
| Hong Kong |
28 |
23 | 82 | 73 |
Mostly cloudy |
| Taipei |
28 |
24 | 82 | 75 |
Thunderstorms possible |
| Naha |
29 |
26 | 84 | 79 |
Partly cloudy |
| Hanoi |
33 |
25 | 91 | 77 |
Partly cloudy |
SOUTH
A surprise has popped up east of the Philippines in the form of 93W INVEST, and computer forecast models are showing the likelihood of development as the system tracks across the country by this weekend. In the meantime, most locations across the south region will see another day of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms as the tropical moisture gets a lift from the warm afternoon sun.
| City |
High/Low C |
High/Low
F |
Conditions |
||
| Siem Reap |
31 |
24 | 88 | 75 |
Scattered thunderstorms likely |
| Ho Chi Minh |
30 |
24 | 86 | 75 |
Thunderstorms likely |
| Manila |
31 |
26 | 88 | 79 |
Thunderstorms likely |
| Davao City |
31 |
24 | 88 | 75 |
Thunderstorms likely |
| Brunei |
32 |
24 | 90 | 75 |
Scattered thunderstorms likely |
| Singapore |
33 |
26 | 91 | 79 |
Scattered thunderstorms likely |
TROPICS
As typhoon 23W SONGDA starts to make its turn to the north and northeast, attention turns to a newly-developing system, 93W INVEST, which may threaten the Philippines this weekend.
TAAG, 11 OCT
Typhoon 23W SONGDA continues to maintain strength as it begins a turn to the north and northeast. The system is expected to continue on this track and evolve into a very strong ETC (Extra-Tropical Cyclone) in the next couple of days.
23W full, 11 OCT
93W INVEST was designated east of the southern Philippines by the N.R.L. (Naval Research Laboratory) as persistent convection and indications of a weak circulation became evident last night. Current computer forecast models are starting to be more in consensus, showing a tropical storm strength system making landfall in the Philippines this weekend, and then becoming a formidable system in the South China Sea next week.
93W full, 11 OCT
There are also two other areas of investigation in the form of 91W and 92W INVEST systems. Both disturbances are rather weak and computer forecast models are not really doing much with these systems in the future.
INVEST full, 11 OCT
Elsewhere across the tropics, plentiful moisture will once again get a lift from the afternoon sun to squeeze out showers and thunderstorms across most locations in the region.
| City |
High/Low C |
High/Low
F |
Conditions |
||
| Guam |
31 |
26 | 88 | 79 |
Thunderstorms likely |
| Yap |
29 |
26 | 84 | 79 |
Thunderstorms likely |
| Palau |
28 |
27 | 82 | 81 |
Thunderstorms likely |
| Chuuk |
31 |
26 | 88 | 79 |
Thunderstorms possible |
| Pohnpei |
29 |
23 | 84 | 73 |
Scattered thunderstorms possible |
| Majuro |
29 |
27 | 84 | 81 |
Scattered thunderstorms possible |
| Wake |
30 |
27 | 86 | 81 |
Scattered thunderstorms possible |
Have a terrific Tuesday!
Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA
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