Daily weather brief – Tuesday, October 11, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 11 OCT

NORTH

Cool, autumn air continues to dominate across much of the north region as frontal systems start making a more regular progression across the region. Readings are rebounding slightly as the cool air mass moderates under the warm sunshine. Warm moist air from the south will override the cooler surface layer in central China, helping squeeze out a few showers. The remainder of the region will see a nice day with lots of sunshine.

CENTRAL

As the remnants of tropical depression 22W AERE fizzle out between Taiwan and Hong Kong, there’s a chance for clouds and showers, and even a few scattered thunderstorms in store for both locations today. A new pulse of energy coming in from the west will also bring a chance of thunderstorms to high country of south-central China this afternoon. Elsewhere, skies will be partly cloudy with very warm temperatures to the south.

SOUTH

A surprise has popped up east of the Philippines in the form of 93W INVEST, and computer forecast models are showing the likelihood of development as the system tracks across the country by this weekend. In the meantime, most locations across the south region will see another day of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms as the tropical moisture gets a lift from the warm afternoon sun.

TROPICS

As typhoon 23W SONGDA starts to make its turn to the north and northeast, attention turns to a newly-developing system, 93W INVEST, which may threaten the Philippines this weekend.

TAAG, 11 OCT

Typhoon 23W SONGDA continues to maintain strength as it begins a turn to the north and northeast. The system is expected to continue on this track and evolve into a very strong ETC (Extra-Tropical Cyclone) in the next couple of days.

23W full, 11 OCT

93W INVEST was designated east of the southern Philippines by the N.R.L. (Naval Research Laboratory) as persistent convection and indications of a weak circulation became evident last night. Current computer forecast models are starting to be more in consensus, showing a tropical storm strength system making landfall in the Philippines this weekend, and then becoming a formidable system in the South China Sea next week.

93W full, 11 OCT

There are also two other areas of investigation in the form of 91W and 92W INVEST systems. Both disturbances are rather weak and computer forecast models are not really doing much with these systems in the future.

INVEST full, 11 OCT

Elsewhere across the tropics, plentiful moisture will once again get a lift from the afternoon sun to squeeze out showers and thunderstorms across most locations in the region.

Have a terrific Tuesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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