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Daily weather brief – Tuesday, October 11, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 11 OCT

NWPAC outlook, 11 OCT

NORTH

Cool, autumn air continues to dominate across much of the north region as frontal systems start making a more regular progression across the region. Readings are rebounding slightly as the cool air mass moderates under the warm sunshine. Warm moist air from the south will override the cooler surface layer in central China, helping squeeze out a few showers. The remainder of the region will see a nice day with lots of sunshine.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

6

-4 43 25

Mostly fair

Vladivostok

12

5 54 41

Mostly fair

Beijing

19

7 66 45

Mostly fair

Seoul

21

8 70 46

Partly cloudy

Tokyo

21

14 70 57

Partly cloudy

Xi’an

18

12 64 54

Scattered showers possible

Shanghai

23

19 73 68

Partly cloudy

 

CENTRAL

As the remnants of tropical depression 22W AERE fizzle out between Taiwan and Hong Kong, there’s a chance for clouds and showers, and even a few scattered thunderstorms in store for both locations today. A new pulse of energy coming in from the west will also bring a chance of thunderstorms to high country of south-central China this afternoon. Elsewhere, skies will be partly cloudy with very warm temperatures to the south.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

22

14 72 57

Thunderstorms possible

Hong Kong

28

23 82 73

Mostly cloudy

Taipei

28

24 82 75

Thunderstorms possible

Naha

29

26 84 79

Partly cloudy

Hanoi

33

25 91 77

Partly cloudy

 

SOUTH

A surprise has popped up east of the Philippines in the form of 93W INVEST, and computer forecast models are showing the likelihood of development as the system tracks across the country by this weekend. In the meantime, most locations across the south region will see another day of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms as the tropical moisture gets a lift from the warm afternoon sun.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

31

24 88 75

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Ho Chi Minh

30

24 86 75

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms likely

Davao City

31

24 88 75

Thunderstorms likely

Brunei

32

24 90 75

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Singapore

33

26 91 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS

As typhoon 23W SONGDA starts to make its turn to the north and northeast, attention turns to a newly-developing system, 93W INVEST, which may threaten the Philippines this weekend.

TAAG, 11 OCT

TAAG, 11 OCT

Typhoon 23W SONGDA continues to maintain strength as it begins a turn to the north and northeast. The system is expected to continue on this track and evolve into a very strong ETC (Extra-Tropical Cyclone) in the next couple of days.

23W full, 11 OCT

23W full, 11 OCT

93W INVEST was designated east of the southern Philippines by the N.R.L. (Naval Research Laboratory) as persistent convection and indications of a weak circulation became evident last night. Current computer forecast models are starting to be more in consensus, showing a tropical storm strength system making landfall in the Philippines this weekend, and then becoming a formidable system in the South China Sea next week.

93W full, 11 OCT

93W full, 11 OCT

There are also two other areas of investigation in the form of 91W and 92W INVEST systems. Both disturbances are rather weak and computer forecast models are not really doing much with these systems in the future.

INVEST full, 11 OCT

INVEST full, 11 OCT

Elsewhere across the tropics, plentiful moisture will once again get a lift from the afternoon sun to squeeze out showers and thunderstorms across most locations in the region.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms likely

Yap

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms likely

Palau

28

27 82 81

Thunderstorms likely

Chuuk

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms possible

Pohnpei

29

23 84 73

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Majuro

29

27 84 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

Wake

30

27 86 81

Scattered thunderstorms possible

 

Have a terrific Tuesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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