The second half of the 2016 typhoon season has been rather active in the western pacific yet we have seen a oddly in-active season thus far for the Philippines.
On average the Philippine typhoon season though often starts to kick in through October in to December with recent historic storms including Haiyan taking place in this time frame.
With that said it is possible we could see a new typhoon over the central Philippines including the Manila area later this week.
A new low pressure area marked on the JMA analysis below and a tropical depression on the 48hr outlook is stirring up the oceans in the Philippines Sea. Satellite imagery really displays this rather well with a broad area of convection indicating plenty of moisture for the development of a tropical system.
Further more low wind shear and the warm sea surface temperatures of the Philippines sea fully justify the expectations of a tropical storm and possible typhoon. That is not even taking in to account the classic Philippine sea effect for the area.
Most numerical models also agree, by Friday in to Saturday Central and Southern Luzon could be in for a typhoon, even more troubling is that if that was to occur it would form right off the coast and come on shore in a almost sneak attack way. Catching people off guard instead of the classic storms that form near wake island and take a week of watching to show up.
Typically I would say with a storm still developing time will tell but in this case there is decent confidence we will see a tropical system develop and impact the Philippines by the coming weekend of the 15th and 16th.