Daily weather brief – Wednesday, October 12, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 12 OCT

NORTH

The feel of autumn stays locked in over much of the north region as another weak frontal system begins to clear the region. The active frontal system stretches from northern Japan, in a sweeping arc to the southwest, over the Korean peninsula, and then back to the northwest, pulling up stationary in northern China and Mongolia. An earlier front is also stationary offshore of Japan as it washes out and begins to merge with the incoming system. Since these two frontal systems are rather dry, most locations will see merely a wind shift, with few clouds. Cooler air overriding the warmer air at the surface, and some instability along the active front, will help lock in cloudy skies and squeeze out a few light showers over central China through the day, with cloudy skies stretching to the eastern coast of the country.

CENTRAL

Clouds and rainfall associated with the remnant moisture from 22W AERE will combine with an old frontal boundary to help generate showers across coastal and offshore locations within the central region. Daytime heating will help lift up moisture over the high country of south-central China as well, aiding in the development of scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

SOUTH

All eyes in the south region remain fixed on the developments as TD/93W INVEST gets cranked up east of the Philippines. This system is expected to affect the northern Philippine island of Luzon this weekend, and could become a formidable force for Southeast Asia to deal with next week. For more information, please see the “tropics” section of this report. Elsewhere in the south, plentiful moisture will once again be lifted up by the warm afternoon sun, generating numerous showers and thunderstorms region-wide.

TROPICS

While typhoon 23W SONGDA spins around well out to sea and moves away, attention turns to the developments of tropical depression 93W INVEST, which is where we will begin this morning.

TAAG, 12 OCT

J.M.A. (Japan Meteorological Agency) has declared 93W INVEST a tropical depression, and the J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) is not far behind, having issued a T.C.F.A. (Tropical Cyclone formation Alert) for the system as it gets better organized east of the Philippines. The latest computer model runs at 11/18Z (0200PST) have shifted a bit north, and take the system through extreme northern Luzon, through Cagayan province. The system is expected to reach typhoon strength before reaching the Philippines, but the exact strength is uncertain because whereas SST’s (Sea-Surface Temperatures) are quite warm, V.W.S. (Vertical Wind Shear) values are quite high and unfavorable ahead of the system. If the wind shear fades, then we could have a significant system on our hands, but if not, development will be somewhat thwarted. We will keep an eye on things and report the latest changes on the website. For an in-depth look at this system’s potential, please see the report by WPACWX meteorologist Robert Speta.

93W full, 12 OCT

Typhoon 23W SONGDA continues to move in a general northeasterly direction, as it begins to get sheared by the strong southwesterly jet stream, and thus, will begin E.T. (Extra-Tropical) transition in the coming hours. This system is only a threat to shipping.

23W full, 12 OCT

We are also watching another weak area of low pressure, associated with remnant energy from the dissipated 22W AERE in the South China Sea. This area is expected to continue moving westward and into Southeast Asia in the next 48 hours. The remainder of the tropics will see the usual dose of afternoon showers and thunderstorms as the warm sunshine combines with plentiful moisture across the region.

Have a wonderful Wednesday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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