Tropical Storm Sakira / Karen is set to knock on the door stop of the Philippines this coming weekend following its development in the Philippine sea this week.
This area is developing from a surge of moisture within the remnants of the south west monsoon. Over the past 24hrs continued intensification and a closed circulation has been observed on ASCAT imagery and general infrared satellite data. Thus JMA and JTWC have upgraded the low to a tropical depression. A tropical storm is expected in the near future.
In short those in Luzon and to a lesser extent northern Visayas should prepare for the possibility of Typhoon conditions later on this week. Big thing is preparation and awareness with this one. It could be a sneaky little storm. And with the slow upgrade from PAGASA on it, it may be more surprising than typical.
Right now there is an abundance of fuel ahead of the storm in the form of warm sea surface temperatures and decreasing shear. This is why JTWC has stated rapid intensification is very well possible as the storm nears the Philippines. And is why the risk of a land falling typhoon despite how close this TD is to the Philippines is also possible.
The wind threat from the storm of course is a major concern but where it looks to be headed in Central Luzon the east coast is used to these storms and is built for the wind. My bigger concern would be further inland around the northern areas NCR where urban flooding is a major concern during tropical systems.
The downtown Manila area though may miss out on the worst of the storm, good news there!
Another low behind this one near Guam is also raising eye brows with long range model outlooks. This could be a new named storm by the weekend as well and really deserves attention too.