Daily weather brief – Thursday, October 13, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 13 OCT

NORTH

Cooler air is starting to moderate a bit over the north region as the latest push of Siberian air makes its way offshore. Temperatures across the region are warming up ever so slightly as the air mass slowly moves east.  Clouds and some light showers are possible along a line stretching from Japan back to the southwest over eastern and central China. Everyone else will see a nice day with comfortable afternoon temperatures.

CENTRAL

Showers and scattered thunderstorms are possible for offshore locations in the central region, as moisture combines with a stalled frontal boundary over the area. Moisture overriding the cooler surface layer will also lend a hand in the development of scattered thunderstorms over southern and south-central China, extending down into northern Indochina.

SOUTH

Attention is firmly focused on development of tropical depression 24W, named “Karen” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA. Current forecasts continue to show the storm strengthening into a formidable typhoon, with landfall over the eastern provinces of central Luzon Sunday. For more information on this system, please see the tropics section of this report. We are also watching an area of disturbed weather associated with the remnant low of what was 22W AERE, which got an infusion of moisture from a vast thunderstorm complex that slid over central Luzon Tuesday. Vietnam’s state weather bureau is tracking this system as a tropical depression, and expect it to move inland within the next 48 hours.

Elsewhere across the south region, it will be another typical day with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, especially over the northern Philippines and Southeast Asia.

TROPICS

The main focus of attention in the WPAC is on the developments with tropical depression 24W, named “Karen” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, however, another area of disturbed weather in the South China Sea looks to affect Vietnam this weekend, and the future of 94W INVEST also looks rather bleak for areas to the west.

TAAG rev, 13 OCT

Tropical depression 24W, named “Karen” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, continues to slowly consolidate east of the Philippines. Current forecasts show this system to develop into a strong category 2 equivalent typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane strength scale as it makes landfall in the eastern provinces of central Luzon on Sunday. For more information, please see the full report by WPACWX meteorologist Robert Speta.

24W full, 13 OCT

The remnant low pressure area that was once 22W AERE has regenerated as such in the South China Sea. This remnant low has been hanging around for the past few days and after suffering a collapse due to harsh atmospheric conditions to the north, was pushed to the south and got another infusion of moisture from a large complex of thunderstorms that rolled through western Luzon on Tuesday. The system is recognized as a tropical depression by Vietnam’s state weather agency, and they forecast the system to move inland in the next 48 hours.

22W full, 13 OCT

We are also watching the development of a newly-designated disturbance, 94W INVEST, located south-southeast of Guam. Current long-range forecast models show development of this system into a very strong typhoon, with an eventual path in the general direction of extreme northern Philippines by late next week.

94W INVEST, 13 OCT

Elsewhere across the tropics, it will be another day of sunshine, mixed in with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Have a thrilling Thursday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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