Archive | October 14, 2016

Typhoon Sarika / Karen Intensifies at it nears landfall

Conditions along the east cost of Luzon have started to detiorate ahead of the growing Typhoon Sarika / Karen nearing the Philippines this weekend. 

Be sure to check our facebook page for updates on signal force warnings and damage reports. 
The storm continues to intensify Saturday morning after being upgraded to a typhoon overnight Friday.  The storm is also moving through a area favorable for tropical development prior to landfall and thus even further intensification is possible with Sarika through Saturday night. 


The Track

The storm continues to track West North West Saturday morning along the south east coast of Luzon east of Legazpi.

The center of circulation is key for the winds as the core of the typhoon strength conditions will be located within 50km of the center as it comes on shore. But the bulk of the convection remains to the south of centerline today. Mainly a result of moisture inflow coming in from the south west monsoon. 
Check Satellite Imagery Here
More so rain will be a big issue with this storm. It is moving at a relatively slow pace of about 10-15km keeping tracking over the country from now through Monday after it starts to depart the countries east coast.

Some areas especially the mountains east of Manila would see up to 300-400mm of rainfall with the threat of flooding and landslides. Especially rural areas with poorer infrastructure. 


PER THE CURRENT TRACK the cities of Angeles south possible in to the NCR may receive the core of the  storm inland . It could downgrade to a severe tropical storm as it moves over these metro areas but will still be violent enough to cause damage and flooding throughout the day Monday.


Manila should stay south of the center of the storm keeping the city out from the worst of the weather but as we have seen in the past even tropical storm strength winds and moderate rainfall can still cause issues in the city, not to mention stalling traffic for anyone intending on traveling to and after church Sunday.

Please prepare accordingly before conditions start to go down hill. For inland areas that would mean prior to Saturday afternoon.  Those living in flood-prone areas, especially in Metro Manila and mountainous areas, should prepare to relocate by tomorrow to avoid the risks associated with this event.

The big fear is how quick this storm is developing though and that people may be caught off guard, little time has been put in place to trigger evacuations, shelters and for this storm to get some wide spread media attention. To the credit of the Philippine government it does look like they have been working extra hard to make quick preparations ahead of the storm. 

Stay safe everyone, prepare and keep checking in for more information on this growing storm.

Growing Severe Storm Sarika / Karen Landfall Sunday Morning

 

Those in southern and Central Luzon should be preparing a possible typhoon and most likely a big rain maker this coming weekend as Sarika / Karen nears.  

 

IR SAT

Over the past 24hrs this storm has intensified from a tropical depression to a severe tropical storm and is expected to become a typhoon by Saturday night as it skirts the coast of Luzon.  Coastal wind damage will be a threat as it does this from Caramoran to the north east through landfall east of Manila.

Check Satellite Imagery Here

More so rain will be a big issue with this storm. It is moving at a relatively slow pace of about 10-15km keeping tracking over the country from now through Monday after it starts to depart the countries east coast.

 

Some areas especially the mountains east of Manila would see up to 300-400mm of rainfall with the threat of flooding and landslides.

rainfall

PER THE CURRENT TRACK the cities of Angeles south possible in to the NCR may receive the core of the weather from this storm. It could downgrade to a severe tropical storm as it moves over these metro areas but will still be violent enough to cause damage and flooding throughout the day Monday.

Manila should stay south of the storm keeping the city out from the worst of the weather but as we have seen in the past even tropical storm strength winds and moderate rainfall can still cause issues in the city, not to mention stalling traffic for anyone intending on traveling to and after church Sunday.

As forecasts evolve, so do the estimates of effects. It appears there will be a rather significant rainfall event as SARIKA (Karen) moves across the country.

Please prepare accordingly. Those living in flood-prone areas, especially in Metro Manila and mountainous areas, should prepare to relocate by tomorrow to avoid the risks associated with this event.

 

 

JTWC FORECAST

The big fear is how quick this storm is developing though and that people may be caught off guard, little time has been put in place to trigger evacuations, shelters and for this storm to get some wide spread media attention.

 

Stay safe everyone, prepare and keep checking in for more information on this growing storm.

Daily weather brief – Friday, October 14, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 14 OCT

NWPAC outlook, 14 OCT

NORTH

The cooler air mass that has settled over the region is starting to moderate a bit to the north and west, while areas to the south and east continue to see lower temperatures and cloudy skies. High pressure has built in solidly over the region and has pushed the latest cold front out well east of Japan, where it has stalled, and stretches back to the west-southwest. The jet stream is transporting some high-level moisture across central and eastern China, keeping skies cloudy, while the rest of the region enjoys a mostly sunny day with a few scattered clouds.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Ulaanbaatar

16

-1 61 30

Mostly fair

Vladivostok

14

10 57 50

Partly cloudy

Beijing

23

11 73 52

Partly cloudy

Seoul

23

11 73 52

Mostly fair

Tokyo

20

13 68 55

Partly cloudy

Xi’an

22

13 72 55

Mostly cloudy

Shanghai

23

20 73 68

Mostly cloudy

 

CENTRAL

Cooler air has also filtered down into continental areas of the central region, as the cold front stalls out offshore of the Ryukyu Islands. Clouds and showers will be prevalent across much of the region as warm tropical air overrides the cooler surface layer. Under the clouds and showers, temperatures will be cool and comfortable.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Kunming

21

12 70 54

Scattered showers likely

Hong Kong

30

24 86 75

Partly cloudy

Taipei

27

24 81 75

Scattered showers likely

Naha

28

26 82 79

Thunderstorms possible

Hanoi

27

24 81 75

Scattered showers likely

 

SOUTH

Attention remains focused on the developments of severe tropical storm 24W SARIKA, also named “Karen” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA. The system is expected to make landfall in central Luzon on Sunday, bringing all the hazards associated with a landfalling tropical system. Dr. Gerry Bagtasa outlined his rainfall estimates in the following graphic:

24W RAINFALL EST., 14 OCT

24W RAINFALL EST., 14 OCT

For more information on SARIKA, please see the “tropics” section below.

Elsewhere across the south region, Vietnam, Cambodia, and southern Laos are dealing with very heavy rainfall as tropical depression 22W AERE makes landfall over the country. This system is expected to dissipate within the next 48 hours.

The remainder of the region will see another day of numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms as the deep tropical moisture gets a lift from the warm afternoon sun.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Siem Reap

31

24 88 75

Mostly cloudy

Ho Chi Minh

32

24 90 75

Thunderstorms likely

Manila

31

26 88 79

Mostly cloudy

Davao City

33

25 91 77

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Brunei

32

24 90 75

Thunderstorms likely

Singapore

31

26 88 79

Thunderstorms likely

 

TROPICS

The tropics have exploded as a new wet M.J O. (Madden-Julian Oscillation) phase affects the region, with no less than 4 active tropical systems to watch.

TAAG, 14 OCT

TAAG, 14 OCT

Severe tropical storm 24W SARIKA, also named “Karen” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, continues to gather strength east of the country as favorable conditions for development persist. The system has jogged a bit to the west-southwest, but is expected to begin a west-northwest track later today, with sights set on landfall in central Luzon sometime Sunday as a powerful typhoon. For more information on 24W SARIKA, please see the full report by WPACWX meteorologist Robert Speta.

24W full, 14 OCT

24W full, 14 OCT

Tropical depression 22W AERE has made landfall over central Vietnam, and is bringing quite a bit of rainfall and windy conditions to much of the Southeast Asian peninsula. This system is expected to rain itself out and dissipate over the next 36-48 hours.

22W full, 14 OCT

22W full, 14 OCT

To the southeast, 94W INVEST is continuing to gain strength, as the J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) has issued a T.C.F.A. (Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert) on this system. Current long-range forecasts continue to take this system in the general direction of the northern Philippines and to Taiwan by next week.

94W full, 14 OCT

94W full, 14 OCT

Finally, we have 95W INVEST far to the east in Micronesia. Models are bullish on the development potential of this system.

95W full, 14 OCT

95W full, 14 OCT

Elsewhere across the tropics, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected as the warm sunshine and plentiful moisture combine forces.

City

High/Low

C

High/Low

F

Conditions

Guam

29

26 84 79

Thunderstorms likely

Yap

29

26 84 79

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Palau

29

27 84 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Chuuk

31

27 88 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Pohnpei

28

22 82 72

Scattered thunderstorms likely

Majuro

28

27 82 81

Mostly cloudy

Wake

29

27 84 81

Scattered thunderstorms likely

 

Have a fabulous Friday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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