Daily weather brief – Friday, October 14, 2016

NWPAC outlook, 14 OCT

NORTH

The cooler air mass that has settled over the region is starting to moderate a bit to the north and west, while areas to the south and east continue to see lower temperatures and cloudy skies. High pressure has built in solidly over the region and has pushed the latest cold front out well east of Japan, where it has stalled, and stretches back to the west-southwest. The jet stream is transporting some high-level moisture across central and eastern China, keeping skies cloudy, while the rest of the region enjoys a mostly sunny day with a few scattered clouds.

CENTRAL

Cooler air has also filtered down into continental areas of the central region, as the cold front stalls out offshore of the Ryukyu Islands. Clouds and showers will be prevalent across much of the region as warm tropical air overrides the cooler surface layer. Under the clouds and showers, temperatures will be cool and comfortable.

SOUTH

Attention remains focused on the developments of severe tropical storm 24W SARIKA, also named “Karen” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA. The system is expected to make landfall in central Luzon on Sunday, bringing all the hazards associated with a landfalling tropical system. Dr. Gerry Bagtasa outlined his rainfall estimates in the following graphic:

24W RAINFALL EST., 14 OCT

For more information on SARIKA, please see the “tropics” section below.

Elsewhere across the south region, Vietnam, Cambodia, and southern Laos are dealing with very heavy rainfall as tropical depression 22W AERE makes landfall over the country. This system is expected to dissipate within the next 48 hours.

The remainder of the region will see another day of numerous afternoon showers and thunderstorms as the deep tropical moisture gets a lift from the warm afternoon sun.

TROPICS

The tropics have exploded as a new wet M.J O. (Madden-Julian Oscillation) phase affects the region, with no less than 4 active tropical systems to watch.

TAAG, 14 OCT

Severe tropical storm 24W SARIKA, also named “Karen” by the Philippines’ state weather agency PAGASA, continues to gather strength east of the country as favorable conditions for development persist. The system has jogged a bit to the west-southwest, but is expected to begin a west-northwest track later today, with sights set on landfall in central Luzon sometime Sunday as a powerful typhoon. For more information on 24W SARIKA, please see the full report by WPACWX meteorologist Robert Speta.

24W full, 14 OCT

Tropical depression 22W AERE has made landfall over central Vietnam, and is bringing quite a bit of rainfall and windy conditions to much of the Southeast Asian peninsula. This system is expected to rain itself out and dissipate over the next 36-48 hours.

22W full, 14 OCT

To the southeast, 94W INVEST is continuing to gain strength, as the J.T.W.C. (Joint Typhoon Warning Center) has issued a T.C.F.A. (Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert) on this system. Current long-range forecasts continue to take this system in the general direction of the northern Philippines and to Taiwan by next week.

94W full, 14 OCT

Finally, we have 95W INVEST far to the east in Micronesia. Models are bullish on the development potential of this system.

95W full, 14 OCT

Elsewhere across the tropics, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected as the warm sunshine and plentiful moisture combine forces.

Have a fabulous Friday!

Courtesy: CIMSS, Tropical Tidbits, JMA, JTWC, Intellicast, WUnderground.com, N.R.L., RAMMB-NOAA

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