Those in southern and Central Luzon should be preparing a possible typhoon and most likely a big rain maker this coming weekend as Sarika / Karen nears.
Over the past 24hrs this storm has intensified from a tropical depression to a severe tropical storm and is expected to become a typhoon by Saturday night as it skirts the coast of Luzon. Coastal wind damage will be a threat as it does this from Caramoran to the north east through landfall east of Manila.
More so rain will be a big issue with this storm. It is moving at a relatively slow pace of about 10-15km keeping tracking over the country from now through Monday after it starts to depart the countries east coast.
Some areas especially the mountains east of Manila would see up to 300-400mm of rainfall with the threat of flooding and landslides.
PER THE CURRENT TRACK the cities of Angeles south possible in to the NCR may receive the core of the weather from this storm. It could downgrade to a severe tropical storm as it moves over these metro areas but will still be violent enough to cause damage and flooding throughout the day Monday.
Manila should stay south of the storm keeping the city out from the worst of the weather but as we have seen in the past even tropical storm strength winds and moderate rainfall can still cause issues in the city, not to mention stalling traffic for anyone intending on traveling to and after church Sunday.
As forecasts evolve, so do the estimates of effects. It appears there will be a rather significant rainfall event as SARIKA (Karen) moves across the country.
Please prepare accordingly. Those living in flood-prone areas, especially in Metro Manila and mountainous areas, should prepare to relocate by tomorrow to avoid the risks associated with this event.
The big fear is how quick this storm is developing though and that people may be caught off guard, little time has been put in place to trigger evacuations, shelters and for this storm to get some wide spread media attention.
Stay safe everyone, prepare and keep checking in for more information on this growing storm.