Conditions along the east cost of Luzon have started to detiorate ahead of the growing Typhoon Sarika / Karen nearing the Philippines this weekend.
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The storm continues to intensify Saturday morning after being upgraded to a typhoon overnight Friday. The storm is also moving through a area favorable for tropical development prior to landfall and thus even further intensification is possible with Sarika through Saturday night.
The storm continues to track West North West Saturday morning along the south east coast of Luzon east of Legazpi.
The center of circulation is key for the winds as the core of the typhoon strength conditions will be located within 50km of the center as it comes on shore. But the bulk of the convection remains to the south of centerline today. Mainly a result of moisture inflow coming in from the south west monsoon.
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More so rain will be a big issue with this storm. It is moving at a relatively slow pace of about 10-15km keeping tracking over the country from now through Monday after it starts to depart the countries east coast.
Some areas especially the mountains east of Manila would see up to 300-400mm of rainfall with the threat of flooding and landslides. Especially rural areas with poorer infrastructure.
PER THE CURRENT TRACK the cities of Angeles south possible in to the NCR may receive the core of the storm inland . It could downgrade to a severe tropical storm as it moves over these metro areas but will still be violent enough to cause damage and flooding throughout the day Monday.
Manila should stay south of the center of the storm keeping the city out from the worst of the weather but as we have seen in the past even tropical storm strength winds and moderate rainfall can still cause issues in the city, not to mention stalling traffic for anyone intending on traveling to and after church Sunday.
Please prepare accordingly before conditions start to go down hill. For inland areas that would mean prior to Saturday afternoon. Those living in flood-prone areas, especially in Metro Manila and mountainous areas, should prepare to relocate by tomorrow to avoid the risks associated with this event.
The big fear is how quick this storm is developing though and that people may be caught off guard, little time has been put in place to trigger evacuations, shelters and for this storm to get some wide spread media attention. To the credit of the Philippine government it does look like they have been working extra hard to make quick preparations ahead of the storm.